Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Comps are tough..

I posted the comment below on Minor League Ball while talking about Austin Beck and a Mike Trout comp given to him. Aaron Rowand was mentioned, as was Clint Frazier. Frazier is a good recency comp. Rowand is a solid ceiling comp, without being hyperbolic but comps are tough because people expect such an exact comp. Players are a mix of things and getting all these things to line up is difficult..

If you look at Rowand’s minor league stats, an average to plus contact, power and speed guy, but not elite the list is small. I looked at stats from 1990-2012. Players who made the majors, drafted guys, RH bat who play CF. 42 guys fit. If you stay don’t go cross racial, it’s 15 guys. That’s it.
Now, I used a fairly tight range, using only MiLB stats but that’s shows how hard it is to make a comp. You don’t want to comp him to Chad Hermansen, Steve Gibralter, Brent Clevlen or Joe Benson now do you.
Wil Myers, Aaron Rowand are the best of this group. Jake Marisnick is in it. That’s an interesting comp with his athleticism..
Ignoring race, Starling Marte, Cam Maybin, Lorenzo Cain, Austin Jackson, Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones, Chris Young, Shane Victorino, Franklin Gutierrez and Alex Rios are all in this group…
Chad Curtis, Jason Romano, Lew Ford, Collin Cowgill and Shane Victorino are also interesting comps that pop up when you add in elite speed.
Doing this research, it’s understandable how you end up with Trout as the comp here. If you hope he succeeds and lives up to the #4 pick overall, you need him to be Rowand or Trout, so you have to attach those names.
The stats are against you, though. The riskiest profile for a high pick is a prep outfielder from my previous research..

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