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Comps are tough..

I posted the comment below on Minor League Ball while talking about Austin Beck and a Mike Trout comp given to him. Aaron Rowand was mentioned, as was Clint Frazier. Frazier is a good recency comp. Rowand is a solid ceiling comp, without being hyperbolic but comps are tough because people expect such an exact comp. Players are a mix of things and getting all these things to line up is difficult..

If you look at Rowand’s minor league stats, an average to plus contact, power and speed guy, but not elite the list is small. I looked at stats from 1990-2012. Players who made the majors, drafted guys, RH bat who play CF. 42 guys fit. If you stay don’t go cross racial, it’s 15 guys. That’s it.
Now, I used a fairly tight range, using only MiLB stats but that’s shows how hard it is to make a comp. You don’t want to comp him to Chad Hermansen, Steve Gibralter, Brent Clevlen or Joe Benson now do you.
Wil Myers, Aaron Rowand are the best of this group. Jake Marisnick is in it. That’s an interesting comp with his athleticism..
Ignoring race, Starling Marte, Cam Maybin, Lorenzo Cain, Austin Jackson, Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones, Chris Young, Shane Victorino, Franklin Gutierrez and Alex Rios are all in this group…
Chad Curtis, Jason Romano, Lew Ford, Collin Cowgill and Shane Victorino are also interesting comps that pop up when you add in elite speed.
Doing this research, it’s understandable how you end up with Trout as the comp here. If you hope he succeeds and lives up to the #4 pick overall, you need him to be Rowand or Trout, so you have to attach those names.
The stats are against you, though. The riskiest profile for a high pick is a prep outfielder from my previous research..

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Over the next month or so, I will be moving most Draft related info to MLB Draft Prospects. MiLB Prospects will be more focused on current minor leaguers.

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Aaron Brown , OF , Chatsworth HS, Calif.
Aaron Westlake , OF , Vanderbilt
Aaron Collazo , SS , Lady Bird Johnson, San Antonio, TX
Aaron Deguire , C , El Camino College
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Aaron Moore , RHP , Westwood Austin TX
Aaron Nola , RHP , Catholic, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Novak , OF/RHP , Germantown Academy (PA)
Aaron Thomassen , RHP , Nathan Hale Seattle WA
Aaron Westlake , 1B/OF , Vanderbilt
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Name POS Schools
1 Bryce Harper C Southern Nevada CC
2 Jameson Taillon RHP The Woodlands (Texas) HS
3 Anthony Ranaudo P LSU
4 Drew Pomeranz LHP Mississippi
5 Nick Castellanos 3B Archbishop McCarthy HS, FLA
6 Bryce Brentz OF Middle Tennessee State
7 AJ Cole P Oviedo HS, Orlando
8 Zack Cox 3B Arkansas
9 Austin Wilson OF Harvard-Westlake HS, CA
10 Deck McGuire RHP Georgia Tech
11 Karsten Whitson RHP Chipley HS, Bartow, Fla.
12 Christian Colon SS Cal State Fullerton
13 Matt Harvey P North Carolina
14 Levon Washington 2B/OF Chipola JC
15 Manny Machado SS Brito Prep, Miami
16 Josh Sale OF Bishop Blanchet HS, SEA
17 Chris Sale LHP Florida Gulf Coast
18 Jedd Gyorko 2B West Virginia
19 Brandon Workman P Texas
20 Stetson Allie 3B St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio
21 Brian Ragira OF Martin HS, Arlington
22 Dylan Covey P Maranatha HS, Pasadena, CA
23 Derek Dietrich SS Georgia Tech
24 DeAndre Smelter P Tattnall Square GA
25 Kevin Gausman RHP Grandview HS, Aurora, Colo
26 Cameron Bedrosian P East Coweta HS, Sharpsburg, GA
27 Jos…