Skip to main content

Visual Depth Charts


This is a visual depth chart of where the talent is in baseball. I got the idea from Baseball Prospectus' Visual Depth Chart for major leaguers as seen here. I just used my own system, which is based on future projection and not necessarily this year, as BP's is. A team can be in the red at the MLB level and still have a good player at the position, it just means they are aging and shouldn't be relied on long term. You can then look at where the help is at the minor league level, if any.

I find this to be extremely valuable in seeing a teams strengths and weaknesses quickly.


I've been working on a system to value players. I've calculated how much value a player has based on their age of their MLB debut and position. The data is here. It shows that the earlier you make it to the majors, the more valuable you are. This is based on historical WAR. 

Using that idea as the basis, I decided to take it a step further. How much is a player worth after those first six seasons? How much should you sign a player to if he were on the open market at any time? How much is the 31 year old SS worth? I used historical data to calculate how quickly players regress using averages and standard deviation to create tiers. If you think a player is two deviations above average or a 70 player, (Robinson Cano for example) I can use this to calculate how much he will be worth over the remainder of his career using other 70 level second baseman, or any other position for that matter. 

I also added in my minor league probability research to create a system to value minor league players based on projected future success. 

To calculate this, I assigned a number to each player between 3 and 7 to represent expected MLB impact. This combined with age and level created a value for each player. The numbers represent what each group would be worth on the open market. The numbers are high because they are based on averages and not everyone will be average and pay off. Others will exceed their valuations, so it isn't perfect. Predictions are just educated guesses. This is my best guess for current valuation for the talent currently in baseball.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Names to Watch for 2011 and 2012 Draft

For more information on the draft, check out my new blog MLB Bonus Baby for more information regarding the draft.

Over the next month or so, I will be moving most Draft related info to MLB Draft Prospects. MiLB Prospects will be more focused on current minor leaguers.

These lists are far from perfect but it's a start

2011
Aaron Brown , OF , Chatsworth HS, Calif.
Aaron Westlake , OF , Vanderbilt
Aaron Collazo , SS , Lady Bird Johnson, San Antonio, TX
Aaron Deguire , C , El Camino College
Aaron Dunsmore , OF , Dayton
Aaron Fanning , SS , Northwest (TX) HS
Aaron Gretz , C , Apple Valley, Apple Valley, MN
Aaron Johnson , LHP , Dunham, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Knapp , MIF , Granite Bay Granite Bay CA
Aaron Moore , RHP , Westwood Austin TX
Aaron Nola , RHP , Catholic, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Novak , OF/RHP , Germantown Academy (PA)
Aaron Thomassen , RHP , Nathan Hale Seattle WA
Aaron Westlake , 1B/OF , Vanderbilt
Abram Cartledge , LHP , Thomson, Thomson, GA
Adam Bennett , SS/RHP , …

Top 300- 2010 MLB Draft Prospects

Name POS Schools
1 Bryce Harper C Southern Nevada CC
2 Jameson Taillon RHP The Woodlands (Texas) HS
3 Anthony Ranaudo P LSU
4 Drew Pomeranz LHP Mississippi
5 Nick Castellanos 3B Archbishop McCarthy HS, FLA
6 Bryce Brentz OF Middle Tennessee State
7 AJ Cole P Oviedo HS, Orlando
8 Zack Cox 3B Arkansas
9 Austin Wilson OF Harvard-Westlake HS, CA
10 Deck McGuire RHP Georgia Tech
11 Karsten Whitson RHP Chipley HS, Bartow, Fla.
12 Christian Colon SS Cal State Fullerton
13 Matt Harvey P North Carolina
14 Levon Washington 2B/OF Chipola JC
15 Manny Machado SS Brito Prep, Miami
16 Josh Sale OF Bishop Blanchet HS, SEA
17 Chris Sale LHP Florida Gulf Coast
18 Jedd Gyorko 2B West Virginia
19 Brandon Workman P Texas
20 Stetson Allie 3B St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio
21 Brian Ragira OF Martin HS, Arlington
22 Dylan Covey P Maranatha HS, Pasadena, CA
23 Derek Dietrich SS Georgia Tech
24 DeAndre Smelter P Tattnall Square GA
25 Kevin Gausman RHP Grandview HS, Aurora, Colo
26 Cameron Bedrosian P East Coweta HS, Sharpsburg, GA
27 Jos…

Catchers By Age

The best way to analyze prospects is using their age in relation to the level they are playing at. Without taking too much of the level into account to start, I'll just be looking at age. I use a players age based on the date that MLB uses to define whether a player will be a draft eligible sophomore, because much of my analysis originates with a players drafted year. If a player is 26.01 on that date, he falls into the 26 year old age category. The age won't always match what is listed on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs but that is how I do it. If I don't have a players birthdate, I use the age listed on Baseball Reference.

Catchers typically progress slower than players at most other positions. The average time for a  college catcher to make it to the majors is 4.15 years. The average for a high school catchers is 5.27 years. This time can be reduced if a player has a higher skill level. Elite players only take 3.04 years out of college and 4.09 out of high school. These…