Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Visual Depth Charts

This is a visual depth chart of where the talent is in baseball. I got the idea from Baseball Prospectus' Visual Depth Chart for major leaguers as seen here. I just used my own system, which is based on future projection and not necessarily this year, as BP's is. A team can be in the red at the MLB level and still have a good player at the position, it just means they are aging and shouldn't be relied on long term. You can then look at where the help is at the minor league level, if any.

I find this to be extremely valuable in seeing a teams strengths and weaknesses quickly.

I've been working on a system to value players. I've calculated how much value a player has based on their age of their MLB debut and position. The data is here. It shows that the earlier you make it to the majors, the more valuable you are. This is based on historical WAR. 

Using that idea as the basis, I decided to take it a step further. How much is a player worth after those first six seasons? How much should you sign a player to if he were on the open market at any time? How much is the 31 year old SS worth? I used historical data to calculate how quickly players regress using averages and standard deviation to create tiers. If you think a player is two deviations above average or a 70 player, (Robinson Cano for example) I can use this to calculate how much he will be worth over the remainder of his career using other 70 level second baseman, or any other position for that matter. 

I also added in my minor league probability research to create a system to value minor league players based on projected future success. 

To calculate this, I assigned a number to each player between 3 and 7 to represent expected MLB impact. This combined with age and level created a value for each player. The numbers represent what each group would be worth on the open market. The numbers are high because they are based on averages and not everyone will be average and pay off. Others will exceed their valuations, so it isn't perfect. Predictions are just educated guesses. This is my best guess for current valuation for the talent currently in baseball.

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