Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Visual Depth Charts

This is a visual depth chart of where the talent is in baseball. I got the idea from Baseball Prospectus' Visual Depth Chart for major leaguers as seen here. I just used my own system, which is based on future projection and not necessarily this year, as BP's is. A team can be in the red at the MLB level and still have a good player at the position, it just means they are aging and shouldn't be relied on long term. You can then look at where the help is at the minor league level, if any.

I find this to be extremely valuable in seeing a teams strengths and weaknesses quickly.

I've been working on a system to value players. I've calculated how much value a player has based on their age of their MLB debut and position. The data is here. It shows that the earlier you make it to the majors, the more valuable you are. This is based on historical WAR. 

Using that idea as the basis, I decided to take it a step further. How much is a player worth after those first six seasons? How much should you sign a player to if he were on the open market at any time? How much is the 31 year old SS worth? I used historical data to calculate how quickly players regress using averages and standard deviation to create tiers. If you think a player is two deviations above average or a 70 player, (Robinson Cano for example) I can use this to calculate how much he will be worth over the remainder of his career using other 70 level second baseman, or any other position for that matter. 

I also added in my minor league probability research to create a system to value minor league players based on projected future success. 

To calculate this, I assigned a number to each player between 3 and 7 to represent expected MLB impact. This combined with age and level created a value for each player. The numbers represent what each group would be worth on the open market. The numbers are high because they are based on averages and not everyone will be average and pay off. Others will exceed their valuations, so it isn't perfect. Predictions are just educated guesses. This is my best guess for current valuation for the talent currently in baseball.

Top 300 Pro Prospects

Top 300 Name POS Team
1 Xander Bogaerts SS Red Sox
2 Byron Buxton CF Twins
3 Oscar Taveras RF Cardinals
4 Archie Bradley P Diamondbacks
5 Javier Baez 3B Cubs
6 Carlos Correa SS Astros
7 Kris Bryant 3B Cubs
8 Miguel Sano 3B Twins
9 Addison Russell SS Athletics
10 Lucas Giolito P Nationals
11 Francisco Lindor SS Indians
12 Albert Almora CF Cubs
13 Jonathan Gray P Rockies
14 Robert Stephenson P Reds
15 Taijuan Walker P Mariners
16 Dylan Bundy P Orioles
17 Kevin Gausman P Orioles
18 Gregory Polanco CF Pirates
19 Clint Frazier RF Indians
20 Travis d'Arnaud C Mets
21 Max Fried P Padres
22 Carlos Martinez P Cardinals
23 Yordano Ventura P Royals
24 Nick Castellanos 3B Tigers
25 Eddie Butler P Rockies
26 Noah Syndergaard P Mets
27 Austin Hedges C Padres
28 Marcus Stroman P Blue Jays
29 A.J. Cole P Nationals
30 David Dahl CF Rockies
31 Matthew Wisler P Padres
32 Jorge Alfaro C Rangers
33 Henry Owens P Red Sox
34 Mark Appel P Astros
35 Alex Meyer P Twins
36 Dominic Smith 1B Mets
37 Rougned Odor 2B Rangers
38 Julio Urias P Dodgers
39 Chris Owings SS Diamondbacks
40 Wilmer Flores 3B Mets
41 Jorge Soler RF Cubs
42 Jackie Bradley Jr. CF Red Sox
43 Raul Mondesi SS Royals
44 George Springer CF Astros
45 Daniel Vogelbach 1B Cubs
46 Rob Kaminsky P Cardinals
47 Lucas Sims P Braves
48 Jameson Taillon P Pirates
49 Jonathan Singleton 1B Astros
50 Matt Barnes P Red Sox
51 Tyler Glasnow P Pirates
52 Mike Foltynewicz P Astros
53 Garin Cecchini 3B Red Sox
54 Hak-Ju Lee SS Rays
55 Hunter Harvey P Orioles
56 Maikel Franco 3B Phillies
57 Manny Banuelos P Yankees
58 Blake Swihart C Red Sox
59 Andrew Heaney P Marlins
60 C.J. Edwards P Cubs
61 Kohl Stewart P Twins
62 Reese Mcguire C Pirates
63 Joc Pederson RF Dodgers
64 Eduardo Rodriguez P Orioles
65 Kolten Wong 2B Cardinals
66 Austin Meadows RF Pirates
67 Corey Seager SS Dodgers
68 Josmil Pinto C Twins
69 Gary Sanchez C Yankees
70 Kyle Zimmer P Royals
71 Jake Marisnick CF Marlins
72 Erik Johnson P White Sox
73 Jake Odorizzi x Rays
74 Colin Moran 1B Marlins
75 Jesse Biddle P Phillies
76 Justin Williams RF Diamondbacks
77 Matt Davidson 3B White Sox
78 Trevor Bauer P Indians
79 Justin Nicolino P Marlins
80 Joey Gallo 3B Rangers
81 Roberto Osuna P Blue Jays
82 Franchy Cordero SS Padres
83 Christian Bethancourt C Braves
84 Lewis Thorpe P Twins
85 Nick Williams LF Rangers
86 Lance Mccullers P Astros
87 Luiz Gohara P Mariners
88 Ian Clarkin P Yankees
89 Tyrone Taylor CF Brewers
90 Michael Choice RF Rangers
91 Tommy Joseph C Phillies
92 D.J. Peterson 3B Mariners
93 Allen Webster P Red Sox
94 Delino Deshields Jr. 2B Astros
95 Edwin Escobar P Giants
96 Andrew Susac C Giants
97 Aaron Sanchez P Blue Jays
98 Jonathan Schoop 2B Orioles
99 Luis Sardinas 2B Rangers
100 Kyle Crick P Giants
101 Nick Ciuffo C Rays
102 Alberto Tirado P Blue Jays
103 Sean Manaea P Royals
104 Kaleb Cowart 3B Angels
105 Rafael Montero P Mets
106 Miguel Almonte P Royals
107 Eddie Rosario 2B Twins
108 Phillip Ervin CF Reds
109 Jose Berrios P Twins
110 Cam Bedrosian P Angels
111 Domingo Santana LF Astros
112 Daniel Norris P Blue Jays
113 Ryan Mcmahon 3B Rockies
114 Jake Barrett P Diamondbacks
115 Mookie Betts 2B Red Sox
116 Josh Bell RF Pirates
117 Alen Hanson 2B Pirates
118 Gleyber Torres SS Cubs
119 Billy Mckinney LF Athletics
120 Renato Nunez 3B Athletics
121 Pierce Johnson P Cubs
122 Casey Kelly x Padres
123 Lewis Brinson CF Rangers
124 Trey Ball P Red Sox
125 Devin Williams P Brewers
126 Slade Heathcott CF Yankees
127 Greg Bird 1B Yankees
128 J.P. Crawford SS Phillies
129 Alex Yarbrough 2B Angels
130 Braden Shipley P Diamondbacks
131 Rosell Herrera 3B Rockies
132 Rio Ruiz 3B Astros
133 Nick Kingham P Pirates
134 James Paxton P Mariners
135 Ryan Tellez 1B Blue Jays
136 Brian Goodwin CF Nationals
137 Danny Hultzen P Mariners
138 Ronny Rodriguez 2B Indians
139 Rymer Liriano RF Padres
140 Taylor Guerrieri P Rays
141 Drew Ward 3B Nationals
142 Taylor Lindsey 2B Angels
143 Luigi Rodriguez CF Indians
144 Chris Stratton P Giants
145 Bobby Wahl P Athletics
146 John Stilson P Blue Jays
147 Zach Lee P Dodgers
148 C.J. Cron 1B Angels
149 Robbie Ray P Nationals
150 Robinson Yambati P Royals
151 Ryne Stanek P Rays
152 Burch Smith P Padres
153 Hunter Renfroe RF Padres
154 Dorssys Paulino 3B Indians
155 Arismendy Alcantara 2B Cubs
156 Severino Gonzalez P Phillies
157 Matt Olson 1B Athletics
158 Jose Leclerc P Rangers
159 Kyle Parker 1B Rockies
160 Mason Williams CF Yankees
161 Gabriel Guerrero RF Mariners
162 Ji-Man Choi 1B Mariners
163 Yorman Rodriguez RF Reds
164 Alexander Reyes P Cardinals
165 Enny Romero P Rays
166 Jonathan Crawford P Tigers
167 Courtney Hawkins RF White Sox
168 Jairo Beras RF Rangers
169 Marcus Semien B White Sox
170 Austin Wilson RF Mariners
171 Adalberto Mejia P Giants
172 Jorge Bonifacio RF Royals
173 Travis Harrison 3B Twins
174 Hunter Morris 1B Brewers
175 Randal Grichuk RF Cardinals
176 Franklin Barreto SS Blue Jays
177 Jose Ramirez 2B Indians
178 Amed Rosario SS Mets
179 Jimmy Nelson P Brewers
180 Johnny Barbato P Padres
181 Tyler Austin RF Yankees
182 Carson Kelly 3B Cardinals
183 Jace Peterson SS Padres
184 Nick Delmonico 3B Brewers
185 Marco Gonzales P Cardinals
186 Jeimer Candelario 3B Cubs
187 Manuel Margot CF Red Sox
188 Amaurys Minier 3B Twins
189 Tyler Marlette C Mariners
190 Daniel Corcino P Reds
191 David Holmberg P Reds
192 Stephen Piscotty RF Cardinals
193 Billy Hamilton CF Reds
194 Rangel Ravelo 3B White Sox
195 Raimel Tapia CF Rockies
196 Keyvius Sampson P Padres
197 Jesse Winker RF Reds
198 Orlando Arcia SS Brewers
199 Max Stassi C Astros
200 B.J. Boyd CF Athletics
201 Joe Panik SS Giants
202 Jon Denney C Red Sox
203 Patrick Leonard 3B Rays
204 Leury Garcia 2B White Sox
205 Jose Osuna 1B Pirates
206 Michael Ynoa P Athletics
207 Adam Morgan P Phillies
208 Anthony Ranaudo P Red Sox
209 Cesar Puello RF Mets
210 Kyle Lobstein P Tigers
211 Brandon Nimmo LF Mets
212 Tommy La Stella 2B Braves
213 Sean Gilmartin P Twins
214 Jake Thompson P Tigers
215 Riley Unroe SS Rays
216 Ty Hensley P Yankees
217 Lisalverto Bonilla P Rangers
218 Hunter Dozier 3B Royals
219 Chris Anderson P Dodgers
220 James Mccann C Tigers
221 Bruce Rondon P Tigers
222 Nick Maronde P Angels
223 Yeison Asencio LF Padres
224 Stryker Trahan C Diamondbacks
225 Jose A. Ramirez P Indians
226 Luis Heredia P Pirates
227 Jacob Degrom P Mets
228 J.T. Realmuto C Marlins
229 Frandi Delarosa SS Cubs
230 J.R. Graham P Braves
231 Casey Crosby P Tigers
232 Forrest Snow P Mariners
233 Luke Jackson P Rangers
234 Michael Lorenzen P Reds
235 Julio Morban LF Mariners
236 Jason Adam P Royals
237 Chris Withrow P Dodgers
238 Ronald Guzman 1B Rangers
239 Daniel Palka LF Diamondbacks
240 Jake Brentz P Blue Jays
241 Walker Weickel P Padres
242 Bubba Starling CF Royals
243 Nick Tropeano P Astros
244 Tim Cooney P Cardinals
245 Tyler Matzek P Rockies
246 Kyle Simon P Phillies
247 Gavin Cecchini SS Mets
248 Cheslor Cuthbert LF Royals
249 Tony Wolters C Indians
250 Jharel Cotton P Dodgers
251 Nelson Rodriguez 1B Indians
252 Akeem Bostick P Rangers
253 Juan Duran RF Reds
254 Ramon Flores LF Yankees
255 Mike Olt 3B Cubs
256 Josh Stinson P Orioles
257 Scott Snodgress P White Sox
258 Cameron Perkins 3B Phillies
259 Chris Beck P White Sox
260 Andrew Chafin P Diamondbacks
261 Micker Zapata OF White Sox
262 Trevor May P Twins
263 Jan Hernandez 3B Phillies
264 Omar Luis Yankees
265 Aderlin Rodriguez 1B Mets
266 Carlos Contreras P Reds
267 Carlos Salazar P Braves
268 Mitch Nay 3B Blue Jays
269 Mac Williamson RF Giants
270 Eric Jagielo 3B Yankees
271 Myles Jaye P White Sox
272 Julio Rodriguez P Orioles
273 Stetson Allie 1B Pirates
274 Brett Marshall P Yankees
275 Neil Ramirez P Cubs
276 Cody Buckel P Rangers
277 Garrett Gould P Dodgers
278 Deck Mcguire P Blue Jays
279 Jose Campos P Yankees
280 Eloy Jimenez OF Cubs
281 Danry Vasquez LF Astros
282 Sergio Alcantara SS Diamondbacks
283 James Ramsey CF Cardinals
284 Nestor Molina P White Sox
285 Josh Hart CF Orioles
286 D.J. Davis CF Blue Jays
287 Clayton Blackburn P Giants
288 Dawel Lugo 3B Blue Jays
289 Tyler O'Neill C Mariners
290 Michael Fulmer P Mets
291 Zach Eflin P Padres
292 Cody Bellinger 1B Dodgers
293 Peter O'Brien C Yankees
294 Mark Sappington P Angels
295 Nomar Mazara RF Rangers
296 Max Kepler RF Twins
297 Clint Coulter C Brewers
298 Alex Gonzalez P Rangers
299 Matt Magill P Dodgers
300 Aaron Judge RF Yankees