Wednesday, October 8, 2014

How much surplus value to MLB teams need to compete?

Surplus value is a buzzword right now and it is very important to a lot of teams but not equally valuable to all of them. I want to figure out a way to define what teams need surplus value to compete and how much the most desperate teams need.

I'm not really sure where to start with this, so I started compiling information. I used the data available via Forbes for team values.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

2014 League Top Pitchers

Here are the top hitters in each league and level according to GAPPER. I didn't use just top total GAPPER score like I have in the past. I used several rankings and totaled them to come up with these lists. I used Total GAPPER score, GAPPER score within the league, GAPPER/PA and the GAPPER score that eliminates age relative to level. There is absolutely nothing subjective here. Just GAPPER and stat lines. Pitchers will be next. I'll do team lists later this off-season that WILL be subjective using what I have seen and who I like but this is just stats. 

International Pacific Coast
Nick Kingham Pirates Noah Syndergaard Mets
Henry Owens Red Sox Nick Tropeano Astros
Daniel Norris Blue Jays Matt Wisler Padres
Robbie Ray Tigers Taijuan Walker Mariners
Alex Meyer Twins Mike Foltynewicz Astros
A.J. Cole Nationals Andrew Heaney Marlins
Cody Martin Braves Tim Cooney Cardinals
Kyle Ryan Tigers Edwin Escobar Giants
Enny Romero Rays Eric Jokisch Cubs
Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays Zach Lee Dodgers
Anthony Ranaudo Red Sox Archie Bradley Diamondbacks
Casey Sadler Pirates Jake Barrett Diamondbacks
Corey Knebel Tigers Rafael Montero Mets
David Holmberg Reds Corey Knebel Rangers
Nicholas Rumbelow Yankees John Lamb Royals
Edwin Escobar Red Sox Yimi Garcia Dodgers
Marcus Stroman Blue Jays Marco Gonzales Cardinals
Tyler Webb Yankees Jason Adam Royals
Drew Verhagen Tigers Jimmy Nelson Brewers
Matt Andriese Rays Mark Binford Royals
Eastern Southern Texas
Henry Owens Red Sox Victor Sanchez Mariners Jake Thompson Rangers
Zach Davies Orioles Robert Stephenson Reds Cam Bedrosian Angels
Clayton Blackburn Giants Jose Urena Marlins Kyle Smith Astros
Jose Berrios Twins Jon Moscot Reds Luke Jackson Rangers
Severino Gonzalez Phillies Justin Nicolino Marlins Alec Asher Rangers
Adrian Sampson Pirates Chasen Shreve Braves Keone Kela Rangers
Kyle Crick Giants Andrew Bellatti Rays Jon Gray Rockies
Eduardo Rodriguez Orioles Ben Lively Reds Matt Wisler Padres
Luis Severino Yankees Archie Bradley Diamondbacks Marco Gonzales Cardinals
Eduardo Rodriguez Red Sox Jason Hursh Braves Mark Binford Royals
Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays Corey Black Cubs Josh Hader Astros
Daniel Norris Blue Jays Dylan Floro Rays Nate Smith Angels
Adalberto Mejia Giants Michael Lorenzen Reds Sam Tuivailala Cardinals
Shawn Armstrong Indians Aaron Blair Diamondbacks Johnny Barbato Padres
Brian Johnson Red Sox Jake Barrett Diamondbacks Andrew Faulkner Rangers
Taylor Rogers Twins Jefferson Olacio White Sox Jerad Eickhoff Rangers
A.J. Cole Nationals Tyler Pike Mariners Joe Ross Padres
Ken Giles Phillies C.J. Edwards Cubs Jason Adam Royals
Kyle Ryan Tigers Myles Jaye White Sox Chi-Chi Gonzalez Rangers
Kyle Crockett Indians Shae Simmons Braves James Needy Padres
High A
California Carolina
Julio Urias Dodgers Lucas Sims Braves
Josh Hader Astros Tyler Danish White Sox
Zach Eflin Padres Andrew Faulkner Rangers
Chris Anderson Dodgers Mark Binford Royals
Lance Mccullers Astros Jose Leclerc Rangers
Ben Lively Reds Glenn Sparkman Royals
Joe Ross Padres Sean Manaea Royals
Steven Okert Giants J.B. Wendelken White Sox
Enrique Burgos Diamondbacks Miguel Almonte Royals
Kyle Smith Astros Ryan Merritt Indians
Jharel Cotton Dodgers Jefferson Olacio White Sox
Tyler Pike Mariners Shawn Morimando Indians
Trevor Gott Padres Gilberto Mendez Nationals
Brandon Alger Padres Abel De Los Santos Rangers
Dylan Unsworth Mariners Francellis Montas White Sox
Aaron Blair Diamondbacks Alex Claudio Rangers
Tyler Deloach Angels Wesley Parsons Braves
Jayson Aquino Rockies Cody Kukuk Red Sox
Austin House Athletics Parker Bridwell Orioles
Bryan Rodriguez Padres Austin Voth Nationals
Low A
Florida State Midwest South Atlantic
Tyler Glasnow Pirates Alexander Reyes Cardinals Lucas Giolito Nationals
Jose Berrios Twins Jen-Ho Tseng Cubs Antonio Senzatela Rockies
Jake Thompson Tigers German Marquez Rays Hunter Harvey Orioles
Daniel Norris Blue Jays Mitch Brown Indians Akeel Morris Mets
Miguel Sulbaran Yankees Rob Kaminsky Cardinals Daniel Mcgrath Red Sox
Mariano Llorens Cardinals Lewis Thorpe Twins Ian Clarkin Yankees
Chad Kuhl Pirates Nick Travieso Reds Luis Severino Yankees
Sam Tuivailala Cardinals Zachary Bird Dodgers Teddy Stankiewicz Red Sox
Luis Severino Yankees Luis Lugo Indians Brady Lail Yankees
Jorge Lopez Brewers Salvatore Romano Reds Tyler Danish White Sox
Blake Snell Rays Edwin Diaz Mariners Robert Gsellman Mets
Daniel Camarena Yankees Greg Harris Dodgers Tyler Viza Phillies
Brady Lail Yankees Emilio Pagan Mariners John Gant Mets
Miguel Nunez Phillies Duane Underwood Cubs Jamie Callahan Red Sox
Gabriel Ynoa Mets Silvino Bracho Diamondbacks Frank Lopez Rangers
Brandon Peterson Twins Nick Burdi Twins Akeem Bostick Rangers
Jhondaniel Medina Pirates Victor Arano Dodgers Keury Mella Giants
Austin Brice Marlins Jose De Leon Dodgers Domingo German Marlins
Roberto Osuna Blue Jays Jake Reed Twins Yohander Mendez Rangers
Nick Goody Yankees Stephen Gonsalves Twins Jimmy Yacabonis Orioles
Kohl Stewart Twins Reynaldo Lopez Nationals
Short Season A
New York Penn Northwest
Marcos Molina Mets Miguel Castro Blue Jays
Casey Meisner Mets Jairo Labourt Blue Jays
Joe Jimenez Tigers Ben Eckels Diamondbacks
Dewen Perez Cardinals Luiz Gohara Mariners
Corey Oswalt Mets Zac Curtis Diamondbacks
Hunter Wood Rays Ryan Castellani Rockies
Travis Ott Nationals Sam Holland Padres
Reynaldo Lopez Nationals Alberto Tirado Blue Jays
Johan Belisario Tigers Richelson Pena Rangers
Miguel Rosario Pirates Trevor Clifton Cubs
Jorgan Cavanerio Marlins Eury Sanchez Giants
Nolan Gannon Rays Bryan Verbitsky Padres
Fernando Perez Tigers Nick Gardewine Rangers
Justin Kamplain Yankees Payton Baskette Padres
Tyler Eppler Pirates Keury Mella Giants
Luis Reyes Nationals Ryan Borucki Blue Jays
Mario Sanchez Nationals Helmis Rodriguez Rockies
Ian Mckinney Cardinals Seth Lucio Padres
J.P. Feyereisen Indians Derek Thompson Rangers
Luc Rennie Orioles Michael Kelly Padres
Advance Rookie Leagues
Appalachian Pioneer
Daniel Missaki Mariners Tyler Mahle Reds
Zack Littell Mariners Jake Newberry Royals
Juan Perez Cardinals Devin Williams Brewers
Hector Garcia Pirates Jose De Leon Dodgers
John Sever Pirates Grant Holmes Dodgers
Brent Honeywell Rays Eduardo Paredes Angels
Carlos Salazar Braves Bernardo Reyes Dodgers
Alec Grosser Braves Gabriel Moya Diamondbacks
Evan Smith Blue Jays Jonah Wesely Angels
Ian Mckinney Cardinals Victor Gonzalez Dodgers
Jonathan Escudero Cardinals Lenix Osuna Dodgers
Chih-Wei Hu Twins Torey Deshazier Royals
Felix Jorge Twins Aaron Bummer White Sox
Juan Santos Astros Brad Keller Diamondbacks
Luis Miranda Braves Soid Marquez Reds
Trey Cochran-Gill Mariners A.J. Vanegas Dodgers
Matt Smoral Blue Jays Dallas Newton Diamondbacks
Stephen Gonsalves Twins Luis Martinez White Sox
Roel Ramirez Rays Ramon Rodriguez Angels
Julio Mateo Cardinals Zachary Lovvorn Royals
Rookie Leagues
Arizona Gulf Coast
Jairo Pacheco Dodgers Oswaldo Castillo Tigers
Jesus Zambrano Athletics Harold Arauz Astros
Ty Boyles Reds Luis Cedeno Yankees
Rodrigo Takahashi Diamondbacks Henry Centeno Rays
Ricardo Sanchez Angels Alexis Tapia Twins
Grant Holmes Dodgers Brian Gonzalez Orioles
Anfernee Benitez Diamondbacks Lewis Alezones Phillies
Luiz Gohara Mariners Francis Martes Marlins
Dylan Brooks Giants Dilmer Mejia Braves
Casey Shane Indians Jordany Santana Braves
Carlos Felix Dodgers Angel Yepez Rays
Lucas Lanphere Rangers Dedgar Jimenez Red Sox
Joseph Palumbo Rangers Mitch Keller Pirates
Yoiber Marquina Indians Jack Flaherty Cardinals
Cody Reed Diamondbacks Darwin Ramos Mets
Ariel Jurado Rangers Jose Almonte Red Sox
Mark Armstrong Reds Anthony Castro Tigers
Freddy Peralta Mariners Jorge Zavala Braves
Merkis Montero Diamondbacks Jery Then Cardinals
Ping-Hsueh Chen Indians Francisco Jimenez Orioles
International Rookie Leagues
Samuel Zazueta Rangers Carlos Rodriguez Cubs
Luis Madero Diamondbacks Andres Torres Mariners
Dilmer Mejia Braves Ken Figueroa Tigers
Crusito Mieses Angels Alejandro Garcia Phillies
Jorge Oviedo Rockies Michael Suarez Mariners
Yeison Santana Diamondbacks Ulises Perez Mariners
Jhonathan Diaz Red Sox Orlando Romero Rays
Victor Concepcion Giants Wildenson Yanez Tigers
Merkis Montero Diamondbacks Eugenio Palma Cubs
Marcos Diplan Rangers Anjul Hernandez Mariners
Jeremy Ovalle Marlins Gerbinson Perez Tigers
Jonathan Hernandez Rangers Eudis Hidrogo Tigers
Jaime Barria Angels Victor Delgado Phillies
Deiyerbert Bolivar Giants Jesus Paricaguan Tigers
Erick Julio Rockies Armando Bastardo Rays
Eliezer Cuello Marlins Sergio Velis Phillies
Steven Fuentes Nationals Alfred Gutierrez Tigers
Yonathan Ramirez Nationals Gabriel Lima Cubs
Genesis Cabrera Rays Luis Serrano Rays
Nelson Acosta White Sox Angel Yepez Rays

2014 League Top Hitters

Here are the top hitters in each league and level according to GAPPER. I didn't use just top total GAPPER score like I have in the past. I used several rankings and totaled them to come up with these lists. I used Total GAPPER score, GAPPER score within the league, GAPPER/PA and the GAPPER score that eliminates age relative to level. There is absolutely nothing subjective here. Just GAPPER and stat lines. Pitchers will be next. I'll do team lists later this off-season that WILL be subjective using what I have seen and who I like but this is just stats.

International Pacific Coast
Mookie Betts Red Sox Ronald Torreyes Astros
Jose Ramirez Indians Kike Hernandez Astros
Gregory Polanco Pirates Joc Pederson Dodgers
Giovanny Urshela Indians Ketel Marte Mariners
Maikel Franco Phillies Arismendy Alcantara Cubs
Dalton Pompey Blue Jays Domingo Santana Astros
Marcus Semien White Sox Luis Sardinas Rangers
Hernan Perez Tigers Oscar Taveras Cardinals
Steven Souza Jr. Nationals Kris Bryant Cubs
Francisco Lindor Indians Taylor Lindsey Angels
Carlos Sanchez White Sox Javier Baez Cubs
Ramon Flores Yankees Wilmer Flores Mets
Christian Bethancourt Braves Stephen Piscotty Cardinals
Robert Refsnyder Yankees Cheslor Cuthbert Royals
Eugenio Suarez Tigers Rymer Liriano Padres
Kevin Pillar Blue Jays Travis D'Arnaud Mets
Jose Pirela Yankees Jon Singleton Astros
Micah Johnson White Sox Kolten Wong Cardinals
Edward Salcedo Braves Jorge Soler Cubs
Blake Swihart Red Sox Randal Grichuk Cardinals
Eastern Southern Texas
Mookie Betts Red Sox Jose Peraza Braves Tony Kemp Astros
Dilson Herrera Mets Kris Bryant Cubs Addison Russell Athletics
Dixon Machado Tigers Rangel Ravelo White Sox Cheslor Cuthbert Royals
Francisco Lindor Indians Ketel Marte Mariners Breyvil Valera Cardinals
Dalton Pompey Blue Jays Jorge Soler Cubs Nomar Mazara Rangers
Alen Hanson Pirates Addison Russell Cubs Delino Deshields Astros
Jorge Polanco Twins Corey Seager Dodgers Andrew Aplin Astros
Brandon Nimmo Mets Ryan Brett Rays Hanser Alberto Rangers
Blake Swihart Red Sox J.T. Realmuto Marlins Rougned Odor Rangers
Gary Sanchez Yankees Daniel Castro Braves Tomas Telis Rangers
Greg Bird Yankees Albert Almora Cubs Joey Gallo Rangers
Giovanny Urshela Indians Brandon Drury Diamondbacks Colin Moran Astros
Jake Cave Yankees Jake Hager Rays Luis Sardinas Rangers
Wilfredo Tovar Mets Austin Barnes Marlins Odubel Herrera Rangers
Josh Bell Pirates Kyle Waldrop Reds Preston Tucker Astros
Cameron Perkins Phillies Yorman Rodriguez Reds Jacob Wilson Cardinals
Matt Duffy Giants Micah Johnson White Sox Reymond Fuentes Padres
Devon Travis Tigers Jesse Winker Reds Jorge Alfaro Rangers
Sean Coyle Red Sox Pin-Chieh Chen Cubs Austin Hedges Padres
Robert Refsnyder Yankees Jake Lamb Diamondbacks Billy Burns Athletics
High A
California Carolina
Carlos Correa Astros Jose Peraza Braves
Corey Seager Dodgers Joey Gallo Rangers
Daniel Robertson Athletics Manuel Margot Red Sox
Matt Olson Athletics Raul Mondesi Royals
Tony Kemp Astros Daniel Castro Braves
Rio Ruiz Astros Christopher Garia Rangers
Mallex Smith Padres Hanser Alberto Rangers
Jesse Winker Reds Courtney Hawkins White Sox
Billy Mckinney Athletics Pedro Severino Nationals
Brandon Drury Diamondbacks Jacob May White Sox
Brett Phillips Astros Nick Basto White Sox
Renato Nunez Athletics Cameron Gallagher Royals
Conrad Gregor Astros Nick Williams Rangers
Danry Vasquez Astros Cleuluis Rondon White Sox
Jose Rondon Angels Odubel Herrera Rangers
Gabriel Guerrero Mariners Ramon Torres Royals
Hershcel Powell Athletics Yandy Diaz Indians
Trevor Story Rockies Ryan Cordell Rangers
Teoscar Hernandez Astros Adrian Marin Orioles
Socrates Brito Diamondbacks Omar Narvaez White Sox
Low A
Florida State Midwest South Atlantic
Orlando Arcia Brewers Andrew Velazquez Diamondbacks Manuel Margot Red Sox
Tyrone Taylor Brewers Jake Bauers Padres Michael De Leon Rangers
Breyvil Valera Cardinals Brett Phillips Astros J.P. Crawford Phillies
Dwight Smith Blue Jays Domingo Leyba Tigers Chance Sisco Orioles
Dalton Pompey Blue Jays Mallex Smith Padres Wendell Rijo Red Sox
Josh Bell Pirates Willy Adames Tigers David Dahl Rockies
Jorge Polanco Twins Clint Coulter Brewers Nomar Mazara Rangers
J.P. Crawford Phillies Franmil Reyes Padres Miguel Andujar Yankees
Dilson Herrera Mets Kean Wong Rays Carlos Tocci Phillies
Billy Mckinney Cubs Javier Betancourt Tigers Raimel Tapia Rockies
Brandon Nimmo Mets Jesmuel Valentin Dodgers Ryan Mcmahon Rockies
Michael Reed Brewers Carson Kelly Cardinals Dominic Smith Mets
Albert Almora Cubs Jamie Westbrook Diamondbacks Reese Mcguire Pirates
Daniel Vogelbach Cubs Willy Adames Rays Samir Duenez Royals
Kyle Schwarber Cubs Kyle Schwarber Cubs Evan Van Hoosier Rangers
Michael Ford Yankees Justin Williams Diamondbacks Rafael Bautista Nationals
Gavin Cecchini Mets Mark Zagunis Cubs Harold Ramirez Pirates
Mark Payton Yankees Chuck Taylor Diamondbacks Tyler Wade Yankees
Colin Moran Marlins Hershcel Powell Athletics Pat Valaika Rockies
Avery Romero Marlins Dawel Lugo Blue Jays Wilmer Difo Nationals
Short Season A
New York Penn Northwest
Austin Anderson Orioles Franklin Barreto Blue Jays
Amed Rosario Mets Eduard Pinto Rangers
Domingo Leyba Tigers Christian Arroyo Giants
Mauricio Dubon Red Sox Marcus Greene Rangers
Francisco Mejia Indians Auston Bousfield Padres
Yairo Munoz Athletics Timothy Locastro Blue Jays
Thairo Estrada Yankees Josh Morgan Rangers
Jordan Luplow Pirates Johneshwy Fargas Giants
Nick Longhi Red Sox Mark Zagunis Cubs
Luis Torrens Yankees Jose Gonzalez Rangers
Kevin Krause Pirates Juremi Profar Rangers
Rowan Wick Cardinals Charcer Burks Cubs
Jason Martin Astros Skyler Ewing Giants
Sam Travis Red Sox Austin Slater Giants
Jhoan Urena Mets Isaiah Kiner-Falefa Rangers
Elvis Escobar Pirates Wilson Soriano Rockies
Taylor Gushue Pirates Stryker Trahan Diamondbacks
Jamie Ritchie Astros Chesny Young Cubs
Steven Fuentes Tigers Luke Tendler Rangers
Kevin Ross Pirates Seth Spivey Rangers
Advance Rookie Leagues
Appalachian Pioneer
Jason Martin Astros Kevin Padlo Rockies
Manny Olloque Royals Forrest Wall Rockies
Danny Jansen Blue Jays Julian Leon Dodgers
Ozhaino Albies Braves Cody Bellinger Dodgers
Jose Godoy Cardinals Dom Nunez Rockies
Jose Martinez Royals Yonathan Daza Rockies
Rowdy Tellez Blue Jays Samir Duenez Royals
Juan Santana Astros Sergio Alcantara Diamondbacks
Meibrys Viloria Royals Justin Williams Diamondbacks
Richard Urena Blue Jays Jake Peter White Sox
Kristian Trompiz Astros Max George Rockies
Lane Thomas Blue Jays Ryan O'Hearn Royals
Max Murphy Twins Zach Houchins Angels
Nick Gordon Twins Luis Castro Rockies
Angel Moreno Rays Fernery Ozuna Diamondbacks
Riley Unroe Rays Ty Washington Reds
Cristian Toribio Rays Natanael Delgado Angels
Oscar Mercado Cardinals Luis Jean Rockies
Dawon Burt Royals Devan Ahart Dodgers
Rafael Fernandez Mariners Omar Carrizales Rockies
Rookie Leagues
Arizona Gulf Coast
Alex Verdugo Dodgers Magneuris Sierra Cardinals
Yu-Cheng Chang Indians Ozhaino Albies Braves
Luis Urias Padres Alex Palma Yankees
Bobby Bradley Indians Eliezer Alvarez Cardinals
Josh Morgan Rangers Rafael Devers Red Sox
Monte Harrison Brewers Cole Tucker Pirates
Gleyber Torres Cubs Luke Dykstra Braves
Kevonte Mitchell Cubs Jomar Reyes Orioles
Jodd Carter Indians Kristian Trompiz Astros
Alexis Pantoja Indians Ricardo Bautista Cardinals
Yeyson Yrizarri Rangers Zach Shepherd Tigers
Randy Ortiz Giants Edmundo Sosa Cardinals
Eloy Jimenez Cubs Zach Sullivan Marlins
Erick Mejia Mariners Victor Acosta Red Sox
Willi Castro Indians Zacrey Law Rays
Jesus Lopez Athletics Grenny Cumana Phillies
Emmanuel Tapia Indians Angel Aguilar Yankees
Troy Stokes Brewers Manuel Guzman Twins
Ti'Quan Forbes Rangers Leonardo Molina Yankees
Brennan Metzger Giants Luis Alexander Basabe Red Sox
International Rookie Leagues
Gabriel Mejia Indians Adrian Alfaro Tigers
Telmito Agustin Nationals Anthony Pereira Tigers
Carlos Vidal Yankees Oscar Rojas Rays
Joantgel Segovia Brewers Anthony Jimenez Mariners
Luis Terrero Rangers Junnell Ledezma Tigers
Victor Robles Nationals Andruw Monasterio Cubs
Mikey Edie Giants Eugene Helder Mariners
Davinson Pimentel Nationals Luis Hidalgo Cubs
Rafael Devers Red Sox Andres Sthormes Tigers
Luis Carpio Mets Luis Mendoza Phillies
Johan Mieses Dodgers Anthony Cantillo Rays
Brallan Perez Rangers Greifer Andrade Mariners
Luis Arraez Twins Jesus Alastre Phillies
Kelvin Beltre Giants Wladimir Galindo Cubs
Ramon Beltre White Sox Jose Antequera Phillies
Luis Martinez Twins Luis Rengifo Mariners
Wander Franco Astros Daniel Romero Phillies
Luis Alexander Basabe Red Sox Elys Escobar Tigers
Raul Siri Pirates Rene Pinto Rays
Didimo Bracho Diamondbacks Jose Azocar Tigers

2014 MLB Prospect Guide Minor League Player of the Year

If you know me or have read my blog, I've been a big fan of Kris Bryant, who will be many of the big name publications will tab as the top minor leaguer this year. I drafted him out of high school in my shadow draft and he was #1 on my prospect list for the 2013 MLB Draft.  I flat out love the guy as a player and think he will be a star. With that said, I am going off of what GAPPER is telling me to some degree and picking a player that put up an incredible season. Some will say he wasn't even the best in his organization but I'm ok with that.

The MLBPG MiLB POY is...

Manuel Margot, OF, Boston Red Sox

Now go get him in every dynasty league you are in before the rest of the big publications lists come out!

And so begins prospect season here at MLBPG. My league lists will come out soon.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

2015 MLB Draft: The Perfect Game and Under Armour All-American Games

The last three years, I have typically written up one of the Under Armour or Perfect Game All American Games. This year, I watched both and will combine the notes instead of focusing on one. Some played in both games and showed different things in each game but none showed completely different skills. These aren't in specific order but are generally how I prefer them. I didn't spend a lot of time on order. I'll do that later. I had a preliminary ranking in my 2014 Draft Book but much of it has changed with the games I have seen this summer. I still have a lot of prep work before I put out a new list but this should help satiate your appetite.
The Pitchers
Kolby Allard
Kolby Allard was so good, it was almost unfair and these are the best players in the country. He had an easy 92-94 MPH FB that he was spotting and it was just unfair. His breaking ball could get big leaguers out right now with that kind of command. He is a good athlete. He’s a smallish guy and won’t blow people away with physicality but the stuff and current polish makes him look like a top 5 pick in this and most classes. Comparing him and Brady Aiken at the same time a year ago, Allard is well ahead of him in velocity and on par with him in command and athleticism. Scott Kazmir would be a solid comp but Allard is so much more polished.

Monday, August 11, 2014

Sorry for the lack of posts

I have had more responsibility at work this year as well as having to take care of my son after work on my own more often with my wife's school work and clinical hours increasing. I'm still trying to keep up with everything for my offseason rankings as well as the draft next June but I'm behind. I hope I have time to catch up soon and when I do, you will know about it.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

2014 Astros Shadow Team International Signings

I have thought a lot about this lately. While researching these players, a few guys really stood out to me early on. Juan De Leon stood out to me right away, as did Ricky Aracena, Pedro Gonzalez and Gilbert Lara. Then you start to think about budget. I really liked arms like Christopher Acosta, Huascar Ynoa and Franklin Perez. Then budget is just stupid to think about because so many of these guys are seven figure guys and some of them have gotten 2+ million. Even with 5+ million to spend on my Shadow team, I won't get all the players I want.

I see a lot of potential in like Gilberto Lara, Miguel Flames, Hyo Joon Park, Juan De Leon, Bryan Emery and smaller ticket guys like Felix Osorio and Elwin Tejada. These could be future major leaguers and potentially future stars. Although there is a ton of risk involved, young talent is the cheapest and most efficient way to build a long term contender.

In a world where Joey Votto is still owed well over $200 million dollars as a 30 year old first baseman who is hitting .255/.390/.409 and Joe Mauer is a 31 year old first baseman owed just under $100 million while hitting .271/.342/.353, it makes you question monetary spending.

With the current penalties that are applied to overspending, it isn't just a slap on the wrist. It is real money. With a dollar for dollar penalty on anything over the spending cap, Gilbert Lara's $3.1 million dollar bonus would cost $6.2 million out of pocket. You are talking about a guy who's ETA is around 2020 and considering money isn't free, you have to add on a cost to it. At a 15% interest rate on the money spent, he would need to return about 16 million dollars of value in his six controllable year. While we don't know what the cost of a Win Above Replacement will be in 2020, using 2014 values, that only equates to a couple wins. While it is likely he would greatly exceed that value if he reaches his ceiling, you are talking about a high risk investment where you could get zero return.

In my opinion, if the cash is available to invest in amateur talent acquisition, you should do it. MLB talent is hard to acquire, look at what the A's just had to give up to get Jeff Samarzija. While Addison Russell isn't a lock to be a future star, he is one of the top 10 prospects in baseball and Billy McKinney can rake. While he is likely a future LF with an average bat, that is still very valuable. Russell was a 2.625 million dollar investment as an #11 overall pick and McKinney signed for $1.8 million as the #24 overall pick. Money does not always equal talent but you have to spend the money and have the ability to spend it, which MLB severly restricts.

That is why I agree with what the Yankees are doing this year. That is why I overspent prior to the CBA setting limits on draft spending and my feeling is I should this year on international players as well. The problem is, there are penalties and I don't know who I'd be passing on in the 2015 and 2016 groups. 

Then again talent is talent and the faster that you get a player into your system, the faster the return. While it is likely the Astros will get $12-13 million dollars worth of allotments over the next three years, it would take more than that to acquire comparable talent now due to fines. In my opinion, Juan De Leon is a player that a team could use as the centerpiece of an international crop. Signing one of them would really limit the ability to spread out the risk though.

My thought is to sign this group:
P Huascar Ynoa Minnesota Twins $800,000
P Franklin Perez Houston Astros $1,000,000
P Wander Cabrera Chicago Cubs $250,000
C Lenin Rodriguez Philadelphia Phillies $300,000
1B Bryan Pena San Francisco Giants $425,000
2B Ricky Aracena Kansas City Royals $850,000
SS Yonny Hernandez Texas Rangers $200,000
SS Elwin Tejeda Boston Red Sox $300,000
SS Jesus Navarro Toronto Blue Jays $200,000
SS Jose Rivero San Francisco Giants $250,000
OF Yondry Contreras Pittsburgh Pirates $400,000
I always use international signings to fill the middle of the diamond. I need to load up on that. I won't get an impact talent that I would want here though and that doesn't work for me. THese totals would come up $50,000 short of my limit. I'd be willing to go 4.99% over to sway a few of these guys away from their existing teams but not more than that.

Considering the Astros will get anouther large allotment next season, I can't see blowing the budget this year due to the penalties. As the team improves, I could see doing it and if Gilbert Lara or Juan De Leon become big time prospects and turn into stars, I'll kick myself but it's too much risk for me in this scenario.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

An Introduction to the 2014 International Class

Here are my opinions on the top prospects in the 2014 International class based on the sparse video that is available. There are some assumptions here but we are talking about 16 year olds.

With some players, it is easy to see the talent immediately. I wish I had run times on some of these guys to have a bit more information on whether they can play up the middle or have to move to a corner but I will have to just make judgement calls based off of body style and actions. I did not do an overall rating but I have them in the order I like them by position.
Christopher Acosta, R/R, 6'3", 170, D.R.
Acosta is long and lean. He has a nice loose arm and a clean delivery. His breaking ball has some bite too it and he looks like he should gain a few ticks on his fastball. I'd be surprised if he isn't a 7 figure guy. He seems like a safe pick with high upside and I think he will be generally regarded as the best arm in this class until these guys start making an impact stateside in 2015-2016.
Huascar Ynoa, R/R, 6'2", 190, D.R.
Huascar is Michael's younger brother but isn't quite the prospect the elder Ynoa was or is but he may need 4-5 years to figure it out as well. He is very raw but the stuff may project to be the most dominant in this class, it just lacks consistency and command. If I had to bet on one arm to be a future ace, I would bet on Ynoa but I would need big odds because he could be a guy who never repeats enough to make it work. On the other hand, an ace is worth 100 million+, he'll get 1 million+. 100:1 odds, I can handle that.
Anderson Espinoza, R/R, 5'10", 150, Venezuela
With dropping a Pedro Martinez comp on him, expectations are high. The fact he has a simple delivery, can spin a breaking ball and shows a good change, he should get 7 figures. I do not see the next Pedro in him. Martinez was an extraordinary arm with a unique physique who could do things with the baseball that few if anyone has ever done before. That means Espinoza would have to possess everything Pedro did and then some to get to that point and to just name one thing, Espinoza doesn't have the hands that Pedro did. Aim lower on his ceiling but he could still be very good.
Carlos Herrera, R/R, 6'3", 150, D.R.
Herrera is another tall, skinny pitcher with a live arm. His fastball is light compared to what some are said to possess but there is more in there. There is some effort to his delivery, so he will likely be labeled a reliever early on but I love the breaking ball and am impressed by the movement on his pitches.
Juan Meza, R/R, 6', 170, Venezuela
Meza has a nice, smooth delivery and repeats well. He looks like a good athelte and his fastball is in the mid to upper 80's like most of the top arms. His changeup looks excellent but I didn't see a good breaking ball. From his arm slot, a good breaking ball would be difficult. He may end up working on a slider but he's 16 and has a live arm. I bet he's a 7 figure guy as well.
Franklin Perez, R/R, 6', 180, Venezuela
Perez has a strong muscular frame and has good physical maturity already. He has a solid low 90's fastball with the potential to be a guy who can pop 95 in the future if he continues to improve. He is new to the mound and was mostly a 3B until recently. He has shown a breaking ball but it is rudimentary. He gets excellent downhill momentum in his pitches and uses his body well.
Tomas Alastre, R/R, 6'3", 169, Venezuela
Tall and lean, Alastre has a lot of work to do to fill out his big frame. He has a good fastball and can spin a breaking ball as well. His delivery looks awkward and mechanical to me but the arm strength is there.

Miguel Flames, R/R, 6'1", 210, Venezuela
Has a strong sweeping swing. He has a lot of potential with the bat. He is slow and built like a catcher after being a 3B in the recent past.. He's the best catcher on the int'l market and could be strong at the plate and defensively.
Lenin Rodriguez, R/R, 5'10", 176, Venezuela
Not a great athelte and is a little stiff but he has the type of bat that could turn into a superstar. It is smooth and repeatable and stays in the zone a long time. Considering he is short and stocky, he will need to watch his weight to stick at catcher. Since he is short, 1B isn't a good option so he'd be a DH type so the bat has to be really good.
Ricardo Rodriguez, R/R, 5'10", 180, Venezuela
Rodriguez has good footwork and catch and throw skills. He looks to be one of the better defenders in the class. I'm not a fan of the bat but he should hit for some power. He may be a defense first catcher or a backup if he makes it to the big leagues.
Brandon Benavente, R/R, 5'10", 190, Venezuela
Solid footwork. Fluid actions behind the dish. He should be able to stick behind the dish but his body will need to be watched as well. He has a solid, simple swing but he won't be a great hitter. He will struggle with off speed pitch and pitches on the outside half.
Jhandro Alfaro, R/R, 5'8", 200, Colombia

Solid defensively, Alfaro is Jorge's younger brother. He is smaller and doesn't have the loud tools but has a solid swing from both sides of the plate. He is a good defender and should be able to stick behind the dish.

Third Base
Gilbert Lara, R/R, 6'3", 203, D.R.
Lara has some of the loudest power in this class. He has incredible torque in his swing. He will likely be listed as a SS when he signs but there is no chance he stays there. 3B may even be a stretch for him but the bat will play. His aggresive swing may cause some swing and miss issues but the power should play and he will be one of the highest payed players in this class.

Nelson Gomez, R/R, 6'2", 219, D.R.
Gomez is almost a bat only prospect. His thick legs and stiff hands don't look like they will let him stay at 3B in the long run. I would expect that he's a 1B/LF type as he moves up the pro ranks. He doesn't square the ball as often as I would expect from a corner bat type. He has big power and will get big money but I wouldn't put too much in on him.
Dermis Garcia, R/R, 6'2", 182, D.R.
Garcia has a long swing that has a bit of a slow trigger at times. I think he will struggle a lot with good pitching without changes to his swing. There is a lot of raw power there but he sells out a lot for power. He will be listed as a shortstop but he's a 3B and should be a solid defender there. If he can put it all together, he could be an elite talent.
Gabriel Corporan, R/R, 6'5", 200, D.R.
Good power potential from a physically mature build. Too much of a pull approach now. Stocky body could be a concern down the line but he has a solid line drive swing and should hit for average power.
Kenny Hernandez, L/R, 6', 160, Venezuela
Simple clean swing. Gets good extension through the ball. Defensively, he may be a 3B but could have to shift to 1B or the OF. I'm not sure how fast he is so I'm not sure if he could handle a corner OF spot. If he's a 1B, he will really have to hit and at this point he's a gap to gap guy. He could be an impressive average hitting prospect with solid power along the lines in a few years or be completely disregarded if he doesn't hit and has to be relegated to 1B.

Pedro Gonzalez, R/R, 6'4", 160, D.R.
There is almost no chance that Gonzalez stays in the infield without ending up at 1B. His long, lean frame that looks more like 6'6" than 6'4" already is kind of scary. He is all projection. He has a bit of a long swing but he has a lot of bat control and quick, strong wrists that guide the bat through the zone. It would not surprise me to see him as a 6'6", 240 LB first baseman in the majors with an average bat and above average power but then again he could keep growing and loose coordination very easily. He is very hard to pin down because of the physicallity.
Ricky Aracena, S/R, 5'8", 155, D.R.
Smooth and direct with his swing. His swing from the left side seems a bit more natural but both are excellent. Short and quick to the ball, he often hits it out front and hits it hard. He is small but he has good range, solid footwork and enough arm for SS.
Hyo-Jun Park, L/R, 6'2", 165, South Korea
The easy comp here is Hak Ju Lee but I don't think that works. From the video, it looks like Park has a lot more power and hits the ball with much more authority. His defensive actions look ok and he may be more well suited at 3B if he has the arm for it. He has somewhat awkward movements and long legs that make me think he won't play well up the middle. Very interesting bat to go with good athleticism though.
Wilkerman Garcia, L/R, 5'11", 168, Venezuela
Garcia has the build of a 2B and will likely move off SS to 2B in the future. He has great barrel awareness and contact ability. His easy swing is a great asset and I think he will be the kind of guy to hit for a high average and rack up doubles while knocking a few over the fence just because he squares it up well enough. He has a controlled approach which is much different than many of the international talents. It's kind of cool to see him stay within himself.
Adrian Rondon, R/R, 6'1", 175, D.R.
Rondon has a pure contact approach with minimal power. He has quick wrists but his swing looks like it can get long. He has good hand eye coordination and should be able to improve enough to have a usable bat. The defensive skills are excellent and he should be a solid defensive short stop. Some say he is the best prospect in the class and maybe with more viewings I would get it but from the videos I have seen, I can't say that.
Amado Nunez, R/R, 6'2", 178, D.R.
Nunez is a long, lean athelte that has a simple, fluid swing. Currently he doesn't have big power but as he grows and fills out, he should add power. He may have to slide over to 3B as he gains weight but he should add power as he does to become an average to above average power hitter as well. His contact ability is impressive.
Arquimedes Gamboa, S/R, 5'11", 158, Venezuela
I haven't seen video of him but he's said to be able to stick up the middle and have a solid bat.
Elwin Tejeda
Will move to 3B in the future but could have the bat to make that work. Simple swing with good contact ability. Uses his wrists well. I really like the polish here.
Miguel Angel Sierra, R/R, 6', 160, Venezuela
Good defender but may have to move to 2B if the arm isn't strong enough. Good footwork. He's a defense first guy as the bat is just a contact oriented approach. He looks like a gamer whose play will exceed his tools.
Diego Castillo, R/R, 5'10", 150, Venezuela
Looks smooth defensively but doesn't look to have a lot of foot speed. He may have to slide over to 2B but he has very good infield actions. His bat is below average but he makes good contact.
Christopher Torres, S/R, 6', 170, D.R.
Torres looks to have very good defensive actions and should be able to stick up the middle but I don't believe in the bat at all.

Juan De Leon, R/R, 6'1", 175, D.R.
De Leon has big time bat speed. He impacts the ball on every swing. He has solid OF actions that will allow him to be an asset wherever he plays in the OF. He has an extremely high ceiling and still looks like a fairly safe bet comparitively. I would expect he gets near the top of the bonus list this year.
Ronny Rafael, R/R, 6', 177, D.R.
Simple swing with fast hands. Muscular durable frame that looks the part of a top prospect. Good speed and solid arm from the OF. He has loud tools from his compact frame.
Antonio Arias, R/R, 6'2", 180, Venezuela
Arias has long limbs and a loose swing. I like the swing and atheticism. He doesn't have huge power but should hit his fair share of extra base hits. Without seeing him run, he looks like a center fielder based on his frame.
Brayan Hernandez, R/R, 6'1", 170, Venezuela
A great example of how difficult projecting these guys is. He has a great swing from the left side but needs about 25 lbs before his power will reach it's potential. I don't like the swing as much from the right side but it is still solid. Defensively, he looks to be a LF or CF if he has the foot speed.
Bryan Emery, S/R, 6'4", 195, Colombia
Really good athelte. Likely a RF but has the bat to make it work. Not a lot of power right now but the swing is great. He has a huge frame and is already pretty physically mature. He could have a really high ceiling.
Bryan Pena, L/?, , , D.R.
Huge power potential. Big uppercut from a strong, handsy swing. The swing doesn't lend itself to contact but all I've seen is BP, so it's hard to tell. The power alone is enough for six figures if not more. I would love to see more of this guy to give a better assessment.
Jonathan Amundaray, R/R, 6'2", 175, Venezuela
More of an athelte than a baseball player. He's an intriguing prospect to most but I don't see the hitting ability of a major leaguer. He looks like he's having a hard time even in BP.
Julio Martinez, R/R, 6'3", 183, D.R.
Good hitter. Keeps his hands inside the ball well. Really slow running. Not very good defensively in the OF. May end up at 1B so the pressure will be on the bat more.
Alexander Paredes, R/R, 6'2", 170, D.R.
Very good arm. Solid looking athlete. Squares the ball. Very pull oriented right now.
Juan Yepez, 3B, Venezuela
OF's A few other names: Daniel Brito, Eriberto Franco, Frailyn Serra, Juan Ventura, Kevin Vicuna, Wilmer Reyes, Israel Feliz
SS's Other Names: Esmerlin Gonzalez, Julio Suarez, Melvin Mendez, Rafioly Urena, Wander Cabrera, Yeremi Rosario
2014 International Bonus Pools
White Sox$4,273,200
Blue Jays$2,852,900
Red Sox$1,881,700
Bonus Estimates:
NameBonus Est.
Adrian Rondon$3,111,250
Gilbert Lara$3,206,075
Dermis Garcia$2,288,700
Juan De Leon$2,362,975
Nelson Gomez$2,362,975
Brayan Hernandez$1,792,900
Anderson Espinoza$1,586,900
Christopher Acosta$1,541,300
Juan Meza$1,026,600
Johathan Amundaray$957,900
Wilkerman Garcia$992,250
Pedro Gonzalez$893,800
Hyo-Jun Park$863,850
Arquimedes Gamboa$726,000
Kenny Hernandez$743,160
Antonio Arias$677,400
Bryan Pena$677,400
Ricky Aracena$701,700
Bryan Emery$713,850
Huascar Ynoa$713,850
Franklin Perez$610,750
Christopher Torres$569,850
Miguel Angel Sierra$546,550
Ronny Rafael$547,757
Miguel Flames$548,325
Diego Castillo$530,650
Lenin Rodriguez$515,300
Julio Martinez$515,300
Ricardo Rodriguez$518,700
Amado Nunez$508,600
Yeremi Rosario$495,400
Brandon Benavente$482,700
Jhoandro Alfaro$485,800