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Using my pitching spectrum to project players.

I'm just going to start with PCL pitching prospects as an example. They are close to big league ready and shouldn't develop a lot from here, so we can figure most of these players won't change levels a lot. The basis is simple. The first letter is innings, the second letter is K rate, the third BB rate.
Taijuan Walker heads the list. He is a 20APA. The APA is usually a dominant reliever or a top of the rotation starter without a lot of innings. Well, Taijuan will be a starter and will log more innings than this, so you can move him up to a PPA. These are aces. That's Walker's potential. If his K rate drops, to a PAA, he's still a #2/3 starter. If his command regresses to a PAB, worst case, he could be Daniel Cabrera like. To me, that's the absolute floor. I don't really see a case where Walker is healthy and he isn't effective.

Jarred Cosart is another interesting case. As a 23AAB, he fits along with a lot of guys who show promise but don't have …

Labeling Pitchers Beyond Rotation Values

In my process of learning the in's and out's of baseball over the last few years, there have been things that bug me. One is that people are annoyed when you call their favorite prospect a future #3 starter. I always knew that being a "#3" was rare but how could I classify that? Well, I couldn't, so I just moved on and let it eat at me. That's how I get so obsessed with things, but it's also how I do what I do.

Now I have figured out how the lower minors work, how they lead to the upper levels and what it takes to make it to the majors. Now, I had enough data and knowledge to find what makes a major leaguer successful. I can now tell you how rare that "#3 starter" actually is, along with a lot more information.

I used data from 1961-2012 for my analysis at the big league level. I used the same theory as I did with minor leaguers, only I included everyone in the calculations. Oddly enough, the basic numbers are pretty similar.

There are 27 differ…

Top Midwest League Pitching Prospects

Victor SanchezMariners (A)18AAA939.6Raul AlcantaraAthletics (A)20PAA865.3Miguel Sulbaran- - -19AAA756.2Zach EflinPadres (A)19AAA733.2Lance MccullersAstros (A)19APB721.9Tyler PikeMariners (A)19AAB719.1Max FriedPadres (A)19AAB717.2Josh HaderAstros (A)19AAB705.1Robert StephensonReds (A)20APA696.1Julio UriasDodgers (A)16APA654.3Jose BerriosTwins (A)19AAA647.2Salvatore RomanoReds (A)19AAA626.8Zachary BirdDodgers (A)18AAB609.2Walker WeickelPadres (A)19AAA600.9Jake ThompsonTigers (A)19APA561.1Stephen LandazuriMariners (A)21AAA515.2Joe RossPadres (A)20AAA501.6Vincent VelasquezAstros (A)21APA489.9Nick TraviesoReds (A)19AAA461.5Dylan BakerIndians (A)21AAA460.5Jonathan MartinezDodgers (A)19AAA460.1Jorge LopezBrewers (A)20AAA443.0Daniel NorrisBlue Jays (A)20APB433.5Roberto OsunaBlue Jays (A)17APA411.1Blake SnellRays (A)20AAB408.0Dylan UnsworthMariners (A)20AAP374.0Jackson StephensReds (A)19AAA359.2Hudson BoydTwins (A)20AAB358.0Joseph KrehbielAngels (A)20APA355.2Mariano LlorensCardinals (A)20APB34…

Top Midwest League HItting Prospects

Byron BuxtonTwins (A)19PAP1000.3Carlos CorreaAstros (A)18AAA821.0Orlando ArciaBrewers (A)18AAA706.3Jorge PolancoTwins (A)19AAA637.3Tyrone TaylorBrewers (A)19AAA567.1Jesse WinkerReds (A)19AAA545.9Ketel MarteMariners (A)19AAA523.7Jeimer CandelarioCubs (A)19AAA508.0Dorssys PaulinoIndians (A)18AAA492.9Danry Vasquez- - -19AAA488.1Breyvil ValeraCardinals (A)20PAA463.9Carson KellyCardinals (A)18BAA420.5Corey SeagerDodgers (A)19BAA411.8Brandon DruryDiamondbacks (A)20PPA411.7Rio RuizAstros (A)19AAA402.1Daniel VogelbachCubs (A)20AAA371.8Albert AlmoraCubs (A)19BAA350.3Mallex SmithPadres (A)20AAP349.2Daniel RobertsonAthletics (A)19AAA298.4Devon TravisTigers (A)22PAP284.8Timmy LopesMariners (A)19BBA269.9Dwight SmithBlue Jays (A)20AAP257.5Matt OlsonAthletics (A)19APA224.6Emilio GuerreroBlue Jays (A)20BAA220.7Charlie TilsonCardinals (A)20AAA207.2Chris BostickAthletics (A)20AAP200.6Justin WilliamsDiamondbacks (A)17BBA189.7Andrew TolesRays (A)21PAP183.4Jonathan SingletonAstros (A)21BAA181.5Tyler Marle…

Top South Atlantic League Hitting Prospects

Mookie BettsRed Sox (A)20APP909.3Raul MondesiRoyals (A)17AAP681.0Jose PerazaBraves (A)19AAP662.5Rosell HerreraRockies (A)20PAA489.6Carlos TocciPhillies (A)17BBA445.4Joey GalloRangers (A)18BPA417.7Gregory BirdYankees (A)20APA352.7Nomar MazaraRangers (A)18AAA300.4Rangel RaveloWhite Sox (A)21BAA291.9Dilson Herrera- - -19AAA254.2Josh BellPirates (A)20AAA253.4J.P. CrawfordPhillies (A)18BBA236.2Nick WilliamsRangers (A)19AAA227.5Ronald GuzmanRangers (A)18BBA220.0Micah JohnsonWhite Sox (A)22PAP216.7Robert RefsnyderYankees (A)22AAP213.7Adrian MarinOrioles (A)19BAA149.8Kyle WrenBraves (A)22BAP138.4Jayce BoydMets (A)22PAA119.3Jake CaveYankees (A)20AAA106.3Pedro SeverinoNationals (A)19BAA104.0Colin MoranMarlins (A)20BBA99.0Roman QuinnPhillies (A)20BBP69.3Kevin PlaweckiMets (A)22AAA66.0Tony RendaNationals (A)22PAP63.2Cameron GallagherRoyals (A)20BBA62.0Jacob MayWhite Sox (A)21BAP40.7Austin DeanMarlins (A)19BAA40.4David DahlRockies (A)19BBA40.0Wyatt MathisenPirates (A)19BBA28.5Maxwell MoroffPirates…

Top South Atlantic League Pitching Prospects

Lucas SimsBraves (A)19APA878.9Tyler GlasnowPirates (A)19APB868.8Mauricio CabreraBraves (A)19AAB819.1Jefferson OlacioWhite Sox (A)19AAA797.2Severino GonzalezPhillies (A)20APA742.0Josh HaderOrioles (A)19AAB705.1Mark BinfordRoyals (A)20AAA699.0Miguel AlmonteRoyals (A)20APA694.2Gabriel YnoaMets (A)20AAP669.2Myles JayeWhite Sox (A)21PAA630.8C.J. EdwardsRangers (A)21APA613.4Robert GsellmanMets (A)19AAA613.3Wesley ParsonsBraves (A)20AAA598.2Miguel NunezPhillies (A)20AAA547.0Kendry FloresGiants (A)21APP531.9Cody KukukRed Sox (A)20AAB512.0Ivan PineyroNationals (A)21AAA508.2Alexander ClaudioRangers (A)21APA507.9Eddie ButlerRockies (A)22PPA507.7Francellis Montas- - -20APA493.8Luis HerediaPirates (A)18AAB493.7Clay HolmesPirates (A)20AAB481.0Jose LeclercRangers (A)19APA465.3Jose CamposYankees (A)20AAA445.0Andrew FaulknerRangers (A)20AAA442.6Luc RennieOrioles (A)19AAA439.1Parker BridwellOrioles (A)21AAA423.2Euclides LeyerWhite Sox (A)20AAA395.6Shane WatsonPhillies (A)19AAA368.0Jayson AquinoRockies …

Top Florida State League Hitting Prospects

Byron BuxtonTwins (A+)19PAP1000.3Maikel FrancoPhillies (A+)20PPA981.4Javier BaezCubs (A+)20APA633.3Miguel SanoTwins (A+)20APA607.1Gregory PolancoPirates (A+)21AAP599.2Alen HansonPirates (A+)20AAP585.7Gary SanchezYankees (A+)20AAA404.7Eddie RosarioTwins (A+)21PAA398.5Ryan BrettRays (A+)21BAP373.4Daniel VogelbachCubs (A+)20AAA371.8Jose OsunaPirates (A+)20AAA362.2Eugenio SuarezTigers (A+)21AAA311.8Andrew BurnsBlue Jays (A+)22PPP302.8Stephen PiscottyCardinals (A+)22AAA292.1Brent KeysMarlins (A+)22ABA288.8Devon TravisTigers (A+)22PAP284.8Avisail GarciaTigers (A+)22BAA280.4Hector GuevaraRays (A+)21BAA272.6Jake HagerRays (A+)20ABA234.1Benjamin GamelYankees (A+)21AAP228Emilio GuerreroBlue Jays (A+)20BAA220.7Nick DelmonicoBrewers (A+)20BAA220.4Robert RefsnyderYankees (A+)22AAP213.7Charlie TilsonCardinals (A+)20AAA207.2Aderlin MejiaTwins (A+)21BBA206Dustin GeigerCubs (A+)21AAA202.2Drew VettlesonRays (A+)21AAA167.9Jorge SolerCubs (A+)21BAA144.7Mason WilliamsYankees (A+)21AAA137.3Jayce BoydMets (…

Top Florida State League Pitching Prospects

Noah SyndergaardMets (A+)20APA885.5Nicholas KinghamPirates (A+)21APA867.4Severino GonzalezPhillies (A+)20APA742.0Justin NicolinoMarlins (A+)21AAA705.0Tim CooneyCardinals (A+)22PAP702.6Jose UrenaMarlins (A+)21PAA683.2Benjamin WellsCubs (A+)20AAA662.4C.J. EdwardsCubs (A+)21APA613.4Robert GsellmanMets (A+)19AAA613.3Scott AllenYankees (A+)21AAA590.2Kyle RyanTigers (A+)21AAA586.0Aaron SanchezBlue Jays (A+)20AAB570.1Felipe RiveroRays (A+)21AAA553.0D.J. BaxendaleTwins (A+)22PAA540.6Corey Black- - -21APB518.2Ivan PineyroCubs (A+)21AAA508.2Joley RodriguezPirates (A+)21AAA483.5Drew VerhagenTigers (A+)22AAA482.8Domingo TapiaMets (A+)21AAB457.6Adrian SampsonPirates (A+)21AAA455.0Robby RowlandPirates (A+)21AAA446.0Daniel NorrisBlue Jays (A+)20APB433.5Bryan MitchellYankees (A+)22AAA424.1Andrew BellattiRays (A+)21AAA415.9Taylor RogersTwins (A+)22AAA409.9Andrew HeaneyMarlins (A+)22AAA407.4Orlando CastroPirates (A+)21AAA379.1Jhondaniel MedinaPirates (A+)20APB368.8Cesar VargasYankees (A+)21AAA363.0Josh…

Top California League Pitching Prospects

Archie BradleyDiamondbacks (A+)20PPB1277.1Matthew WislerPadres (A+)20APA1127.7Clayton BlackburnGiants (A+)20APA895.7Raul AlcantaraAthletics (A+)20PAA865.3Tyler SkaggsDiamondbacks (A+)21AAA854.9Edwin EscobarGiants (A+)21APA822.2Kyle SmithAstros (A+)20AAA788.2Mike FoltynewiczAstros (A+)21AAB757.4Robert StephensonReds (A+)20APA696.1Jon MoscotReds (A+)21AAA646.9Johnny BarbatoPadres (A+)20AAA602.7Adalberto MejiaGiants (A+)20APA577.0Kyle CrickGiants (A+)20APB529.9Stephen LandazuriMariners (A+)21AAA515.2Eddie ButlerRockies (A+)22PPA507.7Luis CruzAstros (A+)22APA502.1Garrett GouldDodgers (A+)21AAA491.3Vincent VelasquezAstros (A+)21APA489.9Mark SappingtonAngels (A+)22PAB472.4Michael MorinAngels (A+)22APA467.0Jake BarrettDiamondbacks (A+)21APA465.5Carlos ContrerasReds (A+)22AAB451.6Ty BlachGiants (A+)22AAP441.8Dominic LeoneMariners (A+)21APA437.6Tanner PetersAthletics (A+)22PAA429.9Andrew ChafinDiamondbacks (A+)23PAA413.1Ross StriplingDodgers (A+)23AAA399.9Christopher JensenRockies (A+)22PAA396…