Monday, March 25, 2013

2013 MLB Draft Order

First Round
1 Houston Astros
2 Chicago Cubs
3 Colorado Rockies
4 Minnesota Twins
5 Cleveland Indians
6 Miami Marlins
7 Boston Red Sox
8 Kansas City Royals
9 Pittsburgh Pirates (Appel)
10 Toronto Blue Jays
11 New York Mets
12 Seattle Mariners
13 San Diego Padres
14 Pittsburgh Pirates
15 Arizona Diamondbacks
16 Philadelphia Phillies
17 Chicago White Sox
18 Los Angeles Dodgers
19 St. Louis Cardinals
20 Detroit Tigers
21 Tampa Bay Rays
22 Baltimore Orioles
23 Texas Rangers
24 Oakland Athletics
25 San Francisco Giants
26 New York Yankees
27

Cincinnati Reds

Monday, March 18, 2013

2013 MLB Draft: Sean Manaea vs Tom Windle at Metrodome

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Friday night was a good night to watch baseball in Minnesota. That is a nearly unheard of statement at any time during the season, let alone March 15th.
Taking the mound for Minnesota was Tom Windle, a lefty who is a late 1st round to second round type of arm. Indiana State had Sean Manaea, a lefty who is in the discussion for the first overall pick. It was exciting for me to get away from my couch scouting and see a live game. It was 4.5 hours worth of driving, and honestly, a little underwhelming, but still a good time.
I got there not too much before the game started. There were a lot of scouts in attendance. I'm not in the loop enough to know who anyone is working for other than an Orioles scout, Cardinals scout and the Twins scouting director.
I was hoping to see the dominant stuff that I saw from Manaea at the Cape Cod League All Star Game but it wasn't there. He was 92-94 mostly with the fastball. He hit 95 on one pitch on a gun in front of me. He easily dominated Gopher hitters and didn't allow a hard hit ball until the middle innings and it was still an easy fly out.
I really thought he was done after the 7th inning but no one was warming up. His velocity was dropping and he was breathing like he was tiring. He did finish the game but dropped to the 88-93 range. That is impressive and shows he can sustain velocity that deep into a game.
Manaea's slider was mostly 78-82 and was an above average offering and flashed 3 or 4 plus pitches but it was not the nasty pitch he had on the Cape. He seemed out of sync. It looked good in the 4th inning but other than that, it was a guessing game.
His change was in the same velocity range but wasn't anything more then a show me pitch. It didn't move much and it needs to improve to be an average pitch in pro ball.
Physically, he was leaner then I thought and he takes a huge stride when he throws. He has very good deception in his delivery, so the 92-94 MPH velocity played up and when he was 97, I could see why he would nearly be untouchable. His low ¾ delivery adds to that.
On a more granular scale, his delivery is long and slow. Good base runners will take advantage of that. He has the silly Paco Rodriguez leg lift as he comes to the set. That drives me nuts but isn't a big deal in reality. His pickoff move is horrible. It's a balk move. He should have been called for at least one balk if not more. He looks like he decides mid delivery if he's going to throw to first or home.
Statistically, he struck out 9, walked one, gave up six hits, hit one batter and generally pounded the strike zone. He should with that stuff against this type of opposition.
Overall, he is more raw then I expected. His delivery isn't easy. He seems a bit awkward in his delivery at times. The arm is there and the slider shows a ton of potential. The change needs a lot of work. The smaller stuff will come with work and time. I see a guy with a big arm and enough stamina to be a starter. I see a guy with the stuff to be a reliever, though. The overall package, right now, isn't good enough to be a top 5 pick. If you want to project and have confidence you can fix the smaller things, he is. If you are looking for the college arm that just needs to face pro hitters, acclimate and move up and take a rotation spot in a year or so, this isn't the guy.
Tom Windle was a completely different pitcher. His velocity was average to above for a lefty at 88-92. He controlled it well and while he allowed a lot of contact, no one made much solid contact off of him. Yes, Twins fans, he pitched to contact. He just doesn't have that extra gear that Manaea has.
Windle has a slider that is a 78-82 MPH offering. It is an average pitch that he commanded well. His change is very good. It was in the 80-84 range but was thrown with the same arm speed. It kept hitters very off balance.
He didn't blow it by hitters like Manaea did. Hitters were able to make contact but most of the time they were weak grounders and rarely amounted to much. For this reason, he is more of a back of the rotation type, not a front line guy like Manaea projects to be. I liked the fact he worked inside and made hitters uneasy. He did hit two batters but not due to lack of control but more that the hitters were sitting on the dish and he wasn't going to not work his game. I appreciated that.
Physically, he is strongly built and could use his lower half more. His stride is short and he throws more over the top. He uses his shoulder and elbow a lot and due to that and he could have a couple more ticks in him if a team would want to tinker. I'm not a fan of that idea, just saying it's potentially an option.
I like Windle. He would be a solid pick in the late 1st round or the supplemental round. I think with his three big league average pitches, he could help any team that picks him. The problem is separating him from the wealth of college arms that could bunch up in the late 1st round.

Sorry, the video isn't great. I'm no photographer.

Manaea Inning (via Matt Garrioch)

Sean Manaea Pitching (via Matt Garrioch)


Sean Manaea pitching (via Matt Garrioch)

Tom Windle Pitching (via Matt Garrioch)

Windle Inning (via Matt Garrioch)

Friday, March 15, 2013

Top Prospect Projection Breakdown

Top ISO Power guys
Name POS ORG high level
Joey Gallo 3B TEX A-
Daniel Vogelbach 1B CHC A-
Miguel Sano 3B MIN A
Anthony Rizzo 1B CHC MLB
Lewis Brinson CF TEX Rookie
Brandon Miller RF WAN A-
Mike Zunino C SEA AA
Corey Dickerson LF COL AA
Evan Gattis LF-C ATL AA
Michael Perez C ARI Rookie
Alex Glenn RF-LF ARI Rookie
Matt Adams 1B STL MLB
C.J. Cron 1B LAA A+
William Swanner C COL A
Telvin Nash LF HOU A+
Mac Williamson RF SF A-
Domingo Santana RF HOU A+
Javier Baez SS CHC A+
Oscar Taveras CF STL AA
Yazy Arbelo 1B ARI AA

Top Selling out for power (highest XBH/H rate)
Name POS ORG high level
Anthony Rendon 3B WAN AA
Joey Gallo 3B TEX A-
Lewis Brinson CF TEX Rookie
Yazy Arbelo 1B ARI AA
Miguel Sano 3B MIN A
Daniel Vogelbach 1B CHC A-
Brandon Miller RF WAN A-
Michael Perez C ARI Rookie
Telvin Nash LF HOU A+
Trayce Thompson CF CHW AAA
Corey Dickerson LF COL AA
Anthony Rizzo 1B CHC MLB
Joe Benson CF MIN MLB
Brett Eibner CF KC A+
Alex Glenn RF-LF ARI Rookie
Patrick Leonard 3B KC Rookie
Evan Gattis LF-C ATL AA
Dilson Herrera 2B PIT A-
Stryker Trahan C ARI Rookie
Kent Matthes RF COL AA

Best Contact Rate
Name POS ORG high level ORG
Aderlin Mejia SS-3B MIN A+ MIN
Alex Yarbrough 2B LAA AA LAA
Ben Orloff SS HOU AA HOU
J.B. Shuck LF-RF HOU MLB HOU
Andrelton Simmons SS ATL MLB ATL
Jose Ramirez 2B MIN Rookie CLE
Hanser Alberto SS TEX A+ TEX
Alan Sharkey 1B MIL Rookie MIL
Joe Panik SS SF A+ SF
Jose Peraza SS ATL Rookie ATL
Rossmel Perez C ARI AA ARI
Tyler Heineman C HOU A- HOU
Alexia Amarista 2B-3B LAA MLB LAA
Wilfredo Tovar SS NYM AA NYM
Ramon Cabrera C PIT AAA PIT
Brian Blasik 2B HOU Rookie HOU
Stephen Piscotty 3B STL A STL
A.J. Pollock CF ARI MLB ARI
Ramon Torres SS KC Rookie KC
Albert Almora CF CHC A- CHC

Highest K Rate
Name POS ORG high level
Bryan De La Rosa C ATL Rookie
Wagner Mateo 1B ARI A+
Telvin Nash LF HOU A+
Blake Brown CF-RF ATL Rookie
Daurys Mercedes CF CHW Rookie
Ty Linton LF ARI Rookie
Max White CF-LF COL Rookie
Jared Mitchell CF CHW AAA
Lewis Brinson CF TEX Rookie
Kyle Greene 1B ARI AAA
Joey Gallo 3B TEX A-
Adam Milligan LF ATL AA
Damion Smith LF ARI Rookie
William Swanner C COL A
Steven Moya RF DET A
Harold Riggins 1B COL A
Bubba Starling CF KC Rookie
Brenden Webb RF BAL A+
Brett Eibner CF KC A+

Highest BB Rate
Name POS ORG high level
Nolan Fontana SS HOU A
Damion Smith LF ARI Rookie
Brian Billigen LF-CF ARI A
Jaff Decker RF SD AA
Clint Coulter C MIL Rookie
Jesmuel Valentin SS LAD Rookie
Brenden Webb RF BAL A+
Brett Eibner CF KC A+
Stryker Trahan C ARI Rookie
Mike O'Neill LF STL AA
Jabari Blash RF SEA A
Jackie Bradley CF BOS AA
Joey Gallo 3B TEX A-
Brandon Nimmo CF NYM A-
Marc Wik LF HOU Rookie
Aaron Hicks CF MIN AA
Drew Robinson 3B TEX A
Jace Peterson SS SD A
Jeremy Rathjen CF LAD Rookie

Best Speed
Name POS ORG high level
Billy Hamilton SS CIN AA
Neiko Johnson CF-2B HOU A-
Andrew Velazquez 2B ARI Rookie
Jace Peterson SS SD A
Billy Burns CF-LF WAN A
Delino Deshields 2B HOU A+
Ruben Sosa 2B-LF HOU A
Eury Perez CF WAN MLB
Keenyn Walker CF CHW A+
Jose Peraza SS ATL Rookie
Deven Marrero SS BOS A-
Jeff Kobernus 2B WAN AA
Roman Quinn SS PHI A-
Yasel Puig RF LAD A+
Connor Lien RF-CF ATL Rookie
Grant Hogue LF HOU A+
Sean Jamieson SS OAK A
Ryan Brett 2B TB A
Ender Inciarte CF ARI A+
C.J. McElroy CF STL Rookie

Most Likely MLB Players
Name POS ORG high level
Matt Adams 1B STL MLB
Anthony Rizzo 1B CHC MLB
Fernando Martinez LF-RF HOU MLB
Leonys Martin CF TEX MLB
Christian Yelich CF MIA A+
Adrian Cardenas 2B CHC MLB
Javier Baez SS CHC A+
Mike Zunino C SEA AA
Oswaldo Arcia RF MIN AA
A.J. Pollock CF ARI MLB
Adam Eaton CF ARI MLB
Matt Dominguez 3B MIA MLB
Jorge Alfaro C-1B TEX A
Oscar Taveras CF STL AA
Tim Beckham SS-2B TB AAA
Corban Joseph 2B NYY AAA
Nolan Arenado 3B COL AA
Matthew Davidson 3B ARI AA
Jonathan Singleton 1B HOU AA
Alexia Amarista 2B-3B LAA MLB

Youngest at MLB Debut
Name POS ORG high level
Adalberto Mondesi SS KC Rookie
Jurickson Profar SS TEX MLB
Anthony Santander LF CLE Rookie
Javier Baez SS CHC A+
Xander Bogaerts SS BOS AA
Christian Yelich CF MIA A+
Dilson Herrera 2B PIT A-
Stryker Trahan C ARI Rookie
Lewis Brinson CF TEX Rookie
Oscar Taveras CF STL AA
Jorge Alfaro C-1B TEX A
Danry Vasquez LF DET A
Gary Sanchez C NYY A+
Daniel Vogelbach 1B CHC A-
Ronald Guzman 1B TEX Rookie
Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado CF KC Rookie
Jonathan Schoop 2B BAL AA
Jeimer Candelario 3B CHC A-
Joc Pederson CF LAD A+
Wilfredo Rodriguez C COL A+


Thursday, March 14, 2013

Minor League Stats to MLB Career Projections

The Idea
I have been working on ranking minor leaguers with stats for 4 years now. It doesn't work. There are too many variables and even at the MLB level, developing one number to rank them all (WAR) doesn't work, so there is no way it will in the minors. What I have decided to do is look at projections instead. I don't use minor league equivalencies. I hate MLE's. I dislike the concept and the application even more. What I did was more comparison based.
I took the formulas I used in the past, applied percentages, found groups and found more exact comparisons, assigned MLB data from comps, regressed and viola. Projections for how similar minor leaguers performed in the majors and the chance that they even make it.
The percentages and groupings were released earlier this year for sale. Now I've developed this system. Right now, I only have a good system done for hitters. It's not great, it's good but could be improved upon. I've already altered it some and I regress TOO much right now. Essentially, these are "safe" projections. Players who are likely to succeed will likely produce better slash lines then what I project. From what I see, the most volatile stat is hits. The better players can outproduce their average projection by .020 to .030 points. In the full model I have created, I have a floor and average and a ceiling projection. This is only the average projections. I don't know if I will make the others available yet, because I am not confident in the results.

The Data

I chose a random year from the data I got from The Baseball Cube: 1996. No real reason for that choice other than it was long enough ago that most players would have much or all of their career played. I chose to use Low A ball for my group. Early enough in their career that it should be hard to predict but considering I was going to use 1996-98, they should have enough data to solidly predict their MLB skills.
After running these numbers, I liked the results but I wanted to see how much would change using A ball and lower levels. I used 1994-1996 in a separate calculation and the results were expected. Most players potential was decreased and a couple top players were overlooked. It's A ball. Hard to pick out all the best players. Mike Lowell was the biggest miss.

I am currently working on this projection for all the best current prospects. I currently have a list of 370 players I plan to do this for using their 2010-2012 data or as much is available.

Here is the Google Doc Link if you want to look at it or download it.



Sunday, March 3, 2013

2013 MLB Draft Top Prospects


Rank. Name, Pos, School, Level, Risk:
1. Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Potential for two plus-plus pitches
The Bad: High effort delivery.
2. Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Big power, good hit tool, good arm
The Bad: May be a 1B, so bat has to play
3. Clint Frazier, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Crazy tools, athletic
The Bad: Intensity could burn him out.
4. Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Potential for two plus-plus pitches
The Bad: May be a RP if change doesn't improve
5. Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Polished bat with power coming
The Bad: Power may be average or below at 1B
6. Dominic Smith, 1B, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Huge power potential
The Bad: May be a 1B. Hitting mechanics need work.
7. Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Elite power potential, big arm
The Bad: Hit tool needs work, could end up at 1B
8. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford, SR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Potential for three plus pitches
The Bad: Too hittable for his stuff.
9. Jonathan Denney, C, Oklahoma HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Very good D, huge bat potential.
The Bad: He's a prep catcher in a deep class.
10. Justin Williams, OF, Louisiana HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Powerful, athletic, young.
The Bad: flaws in swing, throwing mechnics
11. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus slider
The Bad: May be a reliever due to mechanics and lack of change up
12. Jonathan Crawford, RHP, Florida, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus slider
The Bad: May be a reliever due to mechanics and lack of change up
13. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential for three plus pitches
The Bad: Football
14. Joe Martarano, 3B, Idaho HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus arm, plus hit, plus power potential.
The Bad: Football
15. Bobby Wahl, RHP, Mississippi, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Plus fastball and breaking ball
The Bad: May be a reliever due to mechanics
16. Ian Clarkin, RHP, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: low 90's fastball and plus breaking ball
The Bad: Not as much projection as most HS arms.
17. Austin Meadows, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Elite tools across the board.
The Bad: The tools may not translate to baseball skills. Questionable hit tool.
18. Reese McGuire, C, Washington HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Premium defense, good potential with the bat.
The Bad: Hit tool is inconsistent
19. Chris Okey, C, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Very good bat, very athletic.
The Bad: Smaller build. Not much projectability.
20. John Paul Crawford, SS, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential with the bat, good defense.
The Bad: May have to move off SS to 2B/3B
21. Philip Ervin, OF, Samford, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Elite bat speed, above average speed
The Bad: May be a corner guy. No projection.
22. Robert Kaminsky, LHP, New Jersey HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Easy velocity, already commands it.
The Bad: Short. Minimal projection.
23. Zack Collins, 1B, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Middle of the order bat potential.
The Bad: Inconsistent at the plate. Likely a 1B
24. Dustin Driver, RHP, Washington HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Advanced for a prep arm.
The Bad: Not a lot of projection.
25. Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Tennesee HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus breaking ball, good athlete.
The Bad: Inconsistent across the board.
26. Clinton Hollon, RHP, Kentucky HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus breaking ball, good athlete.
The Bad: Nagging injuries have hindered him
27. Dillon Overton, LHP, Oklahoma, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Solid three pitch mix. Very good command.
The Bad: No dominant pitch.
28. Jan Hernandez, 3B, Puerto Rico HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Big potential with the bat, good defender
The Bad: Will need bat to play up at 3B
29. Trey Ball, OF, Indiana HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Nice swing, big arm, above average power potential.
The Bad: Raw. Not a lock to stay in CF. May be LHP.
30. Jeremy Martinez, C, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Above average hitter, potential .300+ guy, solid D
The Bad: body concerns, DH if catching ability falters
31. Oscar Mercado, SS, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus defender, potentially average hit tool, speed
The Bad: Bat is weak
32. Brett Morales, RHP, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential for two plus pitches
The Bad: Not a lot of projection. Potential reliever
33. D.J. Peterson, 3B, New Mexico, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: One of the best college bats this year, big power
The Bad: Not sure if he can stick at 3B. Bat influenced by park?
34. Aaron Judge, OF, Fresno State, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Elite power potential, good athlete
The Bad: Hasn't translated to games.
35. Kevin Davis, RHP, Alabama HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Mid 90's fastball, breaking ball flashes plus
The Bad: No change up to speak of. Minimal projection
36. Casey Shane, RHP, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball with plus breaking ball.
The Bad: Delivery may need some work. Too many secondaries
37. Karsten Whitson, RHP, Florida, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Potential to have three plus pitches
The Bad: Shoulder surgery causes big concerns
38. Ryan Boldt, OF, Minnesota HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential. Plus speed, hit, defense.
The Bad: Raw tools. Needs development.
39. Marco Gonzales, LHP, Gonzaga, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Polish. Good three pitch mix. Plus Change.
The Bad: He is what he is. Minimal projection
40. Chris Rivera, SS, California HS, HS, Risk: Low
The Good: Good hitter, solid athlete, good up the middle defender
The Bad: May be a 2B. Not a lot of power.
41. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Easy velocity. Two potentially plus offerings. Projection.
The Bad: Big enough to have release point issues. Inconsistent.
42. Conrad Gregor, 1B, Vanderbilt, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Great hitter. Good glove at 1B.
The Bad: Lack of current power.
43. Dominic Ficociello, 2B, Arkansas, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Gifted hitter, athletic.
The Bad: Attitude. Runs hot and cold. Not enough power for 1B
44. Billy McKinney, OF, Texas HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Nice swing, good power potential.
The Bad: No standout tools or skills.
45. Daniel Palka, OF, Georgia Tech, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Plus power, plus arm. Good athlete.
The Bad: May need to move to 1B. Won't hit for high average
46. Cord Sandberg, OF, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Tools to rival anyone in the draft.
The Bad: Raw. Football is his biggest weakness.
47. Jonah Wesely, LHP, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball and breaking ball potential.
The Bad: Unusual arm action.
48. Trey Williams, 3B, JC of the Canyons, J1, Risk: High
The Good: Average or better tools across the board.
The Bad: No elite tools. Effort concerns. Mayhave to move to OF. 
49. Nick Ciuffo, C, South Carolina HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Powerful bat, good defense
The Bad: hit tool, arm accuracy
50. Ryan McMahon, 3B, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Easy swing. Above average power projection.
The Bad: Needs polish.
51. Andy McGuire, SS, Virginia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Solid bat, average power, good defense
The Bad: Likely a 3B. Bat uncertain there
52. Kent Emanuel, LHP, North Carolina, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Pitchability. Plus changeup
The Bad: Current lack of velocity
53. Devin Williams, RHP, Missouri HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Mid 90's fastball with projectability
The Bad: Short track record
54. Jacoby Jones, OF, Louisiana State, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Above averge power, speed, arm
The Bad: Getting results from tools
55. Eric Jagielo, 3B, Notre Dame, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Above average power
The Bad: Defensive ability. May be a 1B
56. Garrett Williams, RHP, Louisiana HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Low 90's fastball with a solid breaking ball
The Bad: Past injury red flag (thoracic outlet syndrome surgery)
57. Travis Demeritte, 3B, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Bat speed, power projection, arm strength
The Bad: Long swing. A lot of pre swing movement.
58. Tom Windle, LHP, Minnesota, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Three average pitches.
The Bad: No true out pitch.
59. A.J. Vanegas, RHP, Stanford, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Upper 90's velocity, plus slider potential.
The Bad: Mechanics cause control issues.
60. Chris Oakley, RHP, New Jersey HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Low 90's fastball. Plus curve potential. Projectability.
The Bad: No third pitch.
61. Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Low to mid 90's fastball, plus breaking ball
The Bad: Command needs work. Has been hittable
62. Ryan Eades, RHP, Louisiana State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Plus fastball, flashed a plus curveball
The Bad: Inconsistent. Poor results for stuff.
63. Dylan Covey, RHP, San Diego, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Potential. Flashes three plus pitches.
The Bad: No consistency. Learning a new way of life (Type I Diabetes)
64. Carlos Salazar, RHP, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Big arm, up to 96. Developing secondaries.
The Bad: Harsh delivery. Short track record.
65. John Sternagel, 3B, Florida HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Great hitting ability. Average power, maybe more.
The Bad: Doesn't profile well at any position.
66. Matthew McPhearson, OF, Maryland HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Top of the lineup hitter. Game changing speed. Potential elite CF.
The Bad: Raw. Poor competition to compare him to.
67. Austin Kubitza, RHP, Rice, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Fastball and slider that flash plus
The Bad: Really inconsistent mechanics
68. Michael O'Neill, OF, Michigan, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Average tools across the board.
The Bad: No standout tools. Streaky.
69. Tyler Danish, RHP, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Big arm. Nice breaking ball. Bulldog attitude.
The Bad: Bulldog attitude.
70. Brian Ragira, 1B, Stanford, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Raw power, good bat. Strong arm.
The Bad: Limited to 1B. Slow runner. Needs swing work (Stanford)
71. Josh Hart, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Top of the lineup hitter, good defense
The Bad: May be a LF. Not a ton of power potential.
72. Derik Beauprez, RHP, Colorado HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Fresh arm. Low 90's fastball, plus change up.
The Bad: Short track record. May be a 1B.
73. Brian Navarreto, C, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Good power potential. Very solid behind the plate.
The Bad: Long swing.
74. Anfernee Grier, OF, Alabama HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Nice swing, plus speed, good arm
The Bad: Swing can get long. Will likely strike out a lot.
75. Michael Lorenzen, OF, Cal State Fullerton, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Tools upon tools.
The Bad: Raw for a college player. Not sure if he's a pitcher of OF.
76. Dan Child, RHP, Oregon State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Big arm. Developing secondaries.
The Bad: Doesn't use size wel at all. No projection.
77. Colby Suggs, RHP, Arkansas, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Two above average MLB pitches now. Could help quickly.
The Bad: Not a lot of potential past what he is
78. Keegan Thompson, RHP, Alabama HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Two potential plus pitches. Average change. Athletic.
The Bad: Needs consistency.
79. Jason Hursh, RHP, Oklahoma State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Upper 90's fastball. Potential in secondaries. Helium guy.
The Bad: Recovering from TJ Surgery.
80. Alex Balog, RHP, California HS, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Big fastball in upper 90's, plus slider. Helium guy.
The Bad: Inexperience and inconsistency
81. Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP, Seminole State, J1, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball and breaking ball potential.
The Bad: Change needs work. Breaking ball needs consistency.
82. Trevor Williams, RHP, Arizona State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Low to mid 90's fastball. Nice breaking ball.
The Bad: No out pitch. Likely reliever.
83. Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Huge power potential, big arm
The Bad: Inconsistent in all aspects. Position questions
84. A.J. Puk, LHP, Iowa HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Two plus pitch potential. Projection.
The Bad: Needs refinement across the board.
85. Cavan Biggio, 3B, Texas HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Plus hit tool.
The Bad: Hate the bat waggle. Not sure where he plays defensively
86. Aaron Blair, RHP, Marshall, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Plus fastball and change potential
The Bad: Breaking ball needs work.
87. Terry McClure, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus runner, good bat.
The Bad: Swing is long.
88. Rowdy Tellez, 1B, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Massive power potential
The Bad: Very long swing. Needs to watch his weight.
89. Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Vanderbilt, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Three pitch mix. Plus change
The Bad: Mechanics are bad. Likely reliever.
90. Connor Jones, RHP, Virginia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball. Average change and breaking ball
The Bad: Secondaries and mechnics need improvement.
91. Willie Abreu, OF, Florida HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Polished bat with power potential.
The Bad: Long swing. Likely a corner OF.
92. Scott Frazier, RHP, Pepperdine, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Solid fastball, developing secondaries.
The Bad: Needs to improve secondaries. Not much upside.
93. Jared King, OF, Kansas State, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Average bat, power, speed
The Bad: Corner OF, may end up at 1B. No projection
94. Sheldon Neuse, 3B, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Solid hitter, average power, good arm
The Bad: No solid defensive profile
95. Tyler Alamo, C, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Strong bat. Big power potential.
The Bad: Size will work against him behind the dish.
96. K.J. Woods, OF, South Carolina HS, HS, Risk: Extreme
The Good: Big power potential
The Bad: May end up at 1B. Needs work on swing.
97. Dale Carey, OF, Miami, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Solid bat, solid CF
The Bad: may be a 4th OF'er
98. Nick Longhi, 1B, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Bat is very good. Left arm is strong.
The Bad: Heavy feet. May not have bat at 1B. May be LHP.
99. Carson Baranik, RHP, Miami Dade, J2, Risk: High
The Good: Big arm up to 95, plus breaking ball
The Bad: Off field issues. Needs to watch his weight.
100. Kramer Robertson, SS, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Very good defensive SS
The Bad: Bat is a work in progress

Friday, March 1, 2013

All-Prospect Lineup for 2013


SS Nolan Fontana
2B Jedd Gyorko
RF Oscar Taveras
DH Khris Davis
1B Matt Adams
LF Evan Gattis
3B Stefen Romero
C Tony Sanchez
CF Gary Brown


Bench

Kole Calhoun
Tim Federowicz
Joe Panik
Brock Holt

If this team had an average pitching staff, I think it could flirt with .500.