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Six Year and Career fWAR by Debut Age and Position

I looked into this to see how valuable young players are to their team.

I've found in past research that the earlier a player debuts, the better he is. There are exceptions but speaking in generalities. I wanted to see how this played out. After six hours of data analysis, I had this. Remember, these are raw numbers based on debuts from 1990 to now. Recent hitters skew it some but not enough for me to eliminate them completely. If that bothers you, consider these conservative estimates.


I was inspired to do this because of this article by Andrew Ball. I won't go into the .31% reduction and multiplying it to assign a dollar value as he did. Please read this to get a sense as to how valuable amateur talent and prospects are.

It's interesting to see the P value spike as they debut in their early 30's thanks to Cuban and Japanese "rookies". First Baseman are slow to get to productive levels. Young third baseman do extremely well thanks to players turning into sluggers later in their career. Many of the offensive 3B end up at 1B.

There is a lot of good info here but this is just scraping the surface for my final valuation system. My goal is to have a good chart to evaluate every player in baseball. I think I am pretty close after using this information as well as other information I have compiled in the past. It will take at least one subjective value to make it work though. At this point, you will have to label a player a 4,5,6 or 7 based on below average, average, above average and star level. Once I get this done, I'm not sure what I will do with it. I may post it here or I may include it in my prospect book coming out later this year. We will see...but for now, enjoy this.


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Names to Watch for 2011 and 2012 Draft

For more information on the draft, check out my new blog MLB Bonus Baby for more information regarding the draft.

Over the next month or so, I will be moving most Draft related info to MLB Draft Prospects. MiLB Prospects will be more focused on current minor leaguers.

These lists are far from perfect but it's a start

Aaron Brown , OF , Chatsworth HS, Calif.
Aaron Westlake , OF , Vanderbilt
Aaron Collazo , SS , Lady Bird Johnson, San Antonio, TX
Aaron Deguire , C , El Camino College
Aaron Dunsmore , OF , Dayton
Aaron Fanning , SS , Northwest (TX) HS
Aaron Gretz , C , Apple Valley, Apple Valley, MN
Aaron Johnson , LHP , Dunham, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Knapp , MIF , Granite Bay Granite Bay CA
Aaron Moore , RHP , Westwood Austin TX
Aaron Nola , RHP , Catholic, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Novak , OF/RHP , Germantown Academy (PA)
Aaron Thomassen , RHP , Nathan Hale Seattle WA
Aaron Westlake , 1B/OF , Vanderbilt
Abram Cartledge , LHP , Thomson, Thomson, GA
Adam Bennett , SS/RHP , …

2017 MLB Draft Top Prospects

1Hagen DannerRHPHS2Ronald WashingtonOFHS4J.J. SchwarzCCollege5Turner LarkinsRHPCollege7Evan SkougCCollege8Keith WeisenbergRHPCollege9Bryce Montes De OcaRHPCollege11Pavin Smith1BCollege12David PetersonLHPCollege12Cobi JohnsonRHPCollege14Keaton McKinneyRHPCollege15Mitch HartRHPCollege16Jake GodfreyRHPCollege17Patrick MahomesRHPCollege18Nicholas PrattoLHPHS19Nolan (Nonie) WilliamsSSHS20Scott HurstCFCollege21Jacob BukauskasRHPCollege21Carl ChesterCFCollege22Jeren KendallCFCollege23Bennett SousaLHPCollege24C.J. MooreCFCollege25Griffin CanningRHPCollege25Alejandro Toral1BHS26Jordan ButlerLHPHS27Altoon ColemanRHPHS28Ben JordanRHPHS29Kel JohnsonRFCollege30Derek CaseyRHPCollege31Joseph Dunand3BCollege32Mark VientosSSHS33Bryce CarterCCollege34Hunter MilliganLHPHS35Alex LangeRHPCollege35Michael CantuCCollege36Tanner Burns3BHS37Jon LittellOFCollege38Zack ShannonOFCollege39Jeff HardingRHPCollege40Shane BenesOFCollege41Justin SmithCFCollege42Matt RuppenthalRHPCollege43K.J. HarrisonCCollege44Riley A…