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Showing posts from December, 2013

Hall of Fame Vote

If anyone is wondering, this is my vote to the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America.

Anyone who follows me on twitter, or has for any period of time, knows what I think about "performance enhancers". I think the whole thing is a joke. I know some used, many used. I know some didn't and to them, I tip my hat and give them a pat on the back for being good humans. Past that, it doesn't matter to me. McGwire took all kinds of stuff.  He als had a 164 OPS+ and hit 49 home runs as a rookie when he was a stick figure compared to his later days.

Bagwell may have been clean, he may have used. I don't care. Biggio the same. They were great players. As were all the players on my list. I'm sure most of them had a performance enhancing surgery at some point. Maybe they took Ibuprofen to take away some pain to enhance their performance. Hell, this miracle substance wasn't invented until the 1960's. Anyone who took this enhanced their performance more th…

Daily Analysis: Rookie Ball Workhorse?

Every day I read something or hear something I want to analyze to see if my annoyance is worthwhile. It's more ofen curiosity than annoyance because I want to know whether it happens as often as I think, more often, less often, ever, in what case, when, who, why or some other thing. I often do it at a later date and don't write about it. The context is gone and I'm probably the only one who cares but I'm writing this today anyway.

I read this article on Baseball America this morning and it made me chuckle. The Twins have had the "pitch to contact" brand lately, whether they like it or not. They have went after players in the draft and in acquisitions that throw hard but have yet to hit on a big one. Maybe it's coming, I would expect that it will with Meyer and maybe Kohl Stewart and others. They are trying and I appreciate that but talking about a 22 year old reliever in rookie ball that could be a workhorse is wrong. Maybe a Low A workhorse. That context…

Six Year and Career fWAR by Debut Age and Position

I looked into this to see how valuable young players are to their team.

I've found in past research that the earlier a player debuts, the better he is. There are exceptions but speaking in generalities. I wanted to see how this played out. After six hours of data analysis, I had this. Remember, these are raw numbers based on debuts from 1990 to now. Recent hitters skew it some but not enough for me to eliminate them completely. If that bothers you, consider these conservative estimates.

SPREADSHEET

I was inspired to do this because of this article by Andrew Ball. I won't go into the .31% reduction and multiplying it to assign a dollar value as he did. Please read this to get a sense as to how valuable amateur talent and prospects are.

It's interesting to see the P value spike as they debut in their early 30's thanks to Cuban and Japanese "rookies". First Baseman are slow to get to productive levels. Young third baseman do extremely well thanks to players turni…

Comparing Byron Buxton

Looking back at minor leaguers to find a comparison to Byron Buxton is difficult. Looking at the fact he reached High A by the time he was 19 and did well shows unusual talent. I wanted to see if there were any other players that had similar success.

For this analysis, I looked at three skills, K rate, Isolated power and speed. Speed is determined by adding triples and stolen bases and subtracting caught stealing. It's a ballpark number just to classify if a guy can run or not. I found three similar players: Andrew Machado, Elvis Andrus and Felix Pie

The good news is that Buxton had a lower K rate than any of these guys as well as hitting for more power than any. Not by a lot though. His ISO was .147 compared to Pie's .144. Andrus and Machado didn't have much power. Machado isn't a good match. He was rushed up the ladder due to his defensive skills. He never had much for offensive skill other than making good contact.
Elvis Andrus is not a horrible comparison. Similar …

Free 2013 MLB Draft Book: Great for Dynasty Leagues

Click Donate to order:
With many people having fantasy drafts over the next few months, I thought I should re-post this. Rankings change quickly with players that are new to pro ball but this is still a great asset to have to get some feel for the newest pro prospects.

The 2013 MLB Draft Book is free. You can download it here. Any donations would be appreciated and would help me continue to do this.


Jameis Winston before he was Famous Jameis

Back in May of 2011, I said this about Jameis for Tomahawk Nation, an SB Nation site dedicated to the Seminoles.

He is top 10 prospect for some based on potential and closer to 100 for others based on pro readiness. He has the potential to be a top draft pick but he is raw right now. Two sport stars are typically more raw than single sport stars, but the athleticism that he offers could allow him to vault up in the draft if someone sees him as a star, especially a team that could get him to commit solely to baseball. I don't have a set ranking for 2012 yet, but I would say he would be between 30th and 40th in the prep ranks for me. He is playing well this season batting .475 with 4 HR's in 40 AB. He generates a lot of power at the plate with his long, lean frame. He projects as a potential 5 tool CF with time and polish. On the mound, he has a mid to upper 80's fastball and curveball that flashes signs of an above average pitch. He could be an interesting two-way player at…

A Quck Reference Tool

A level players are the top tier players. They are players that would rate out as first division starters. Using scouting numbers, they are players that would be 55 or better. This is where the impact players come from. Most of these guys will be in the top 100, only a few will be left out.

B level players are players that I expect to have major league skills and could be impact level players if things break just right but are mostly just good useful major league players. Many of these guys won't make it but they have the skills that give them the chance to.

C level players are players that are likely to be second division starters, utility men, bench players, backups, 5th starters, bullpen arms and other less important role players. There may be a few that can exceed this. Many of these will never make an impact in the majors. Many will never make it at all.

d level players are those that should play in the majors this year but won't make a big impact. They are names to be fa…

Astros Shadow System Update

Looking at my roster in September, I thought about adding a few players in free agency but nothing major. I wrote up my thoughts in a previous article. I didn't plan on spending a lot but the more I looked at my roster, the more I saw a few holes.