Friday, October 25, 2013

Free Agent Offers from Shadow Astros

This is my first run through before free agency hits. I will narrow these offers down in the next step.

Step one..

This is a quick status update and ballpark estimates to targets.




Catchers
Current status
Max Stassi and Curt Casali are the only catchers I have near the MLB level. Stassi isn't ready to take over at the big league level but should get that this year. Down the line, I don't know if any more of my prospects will be future MLB catchers. So, I'd like more than just a one year stop gap but I'll settle for that.
The market
Jarrod Saltalamacchia has the most value according to my system. $47.66 million actually but I feel that it's Fenway influenced, so I'd offer him 3 years, 24 millon. Brian McCann is only worth 19.92 million according to my system but he had an off year. I'd offer him 3 years, 36 million.  A.J. Pierzynski is worth 14.53 million. I'd offer this to him over two years if he'd accept it. John Buck would also get a 1 year, 4 mil offer even though my system says he's worth 10.43. I'd offer Hank Blanco a Minor League deal.

First Base/DH
Current status
The Shadow 'Stros are running out Justin Smoak at 1B and Jon Singleton waiting in the wings. There is some serious power behind him in Rowdy Tellez, Stetson Allie and Rock Shoulders. Kris Bryant is also a possibility but I'll slot him across the diamond for now. I'm a fan of power. Smoak and Singleton are good but not great. Still room to improve. Singleton could even spend a little time in LF if need be, so I'll look some at 1B/DH options.

The market
I think Jose Abreu is a badass. GAPPER said he'd be worth 63.4 million. I would sign him to that over 4 years. I'm gambling nearly 16 million a year over the next four years on him, so I hope I'm not wrong. I can't watch a video of him and not get excited, so I think it'll be worth it. My offer exceeded the White Sox deal, so he is a member of the Shadow Astros. Paul Konerko gets a 1 year offer from me at 5 million, as would Justin Morneau.

Second Base
Current Status
Scooter Gennett is my starter at this point. I'm a beliver in him but I don't know that he is a long term guy on a winning team. He will be the guy, though, unless I sign someone else big.

The market
Well, 2B is never loaded but since Robinson Cano is out there, I at least have to throw an offer. I may adjust this after thinking more about it but for now, it's a 6 year, 135 million. I have to analyze my roster a little more and I may go higher on him but this is my starting point. Omar Infante would be worth a 2 year, 14 million dollar deal to me as well.

Third Base
Current Status
One of the stronger positions on my team is 3B. Basically because of the impending arrival of Kris Bryant. Nick Castellanos could fit there as well but I think he's going to be a corner OF for me. I have Garin Cecchini on the way and  Rio Ruiz and several lower level guys that could impact in a handful of years.

The market
Eric Chavez is the only guy I'm interested in, and that's only in a 1 year, 4 million dollar deal.


Shortstop
Current status
Right now, I have nothing at the MLB level. If I would sign a 2B, Scooter Gennet could maybe be a stop gap there but it wouldn't work well. Down the line I have Raul Mondesi, Carlos Correa and a few other low level guys that may help in a few years. 

The market
Jhonny Peralta is one of the better options but he isn't really a SS. Stephen Drew is the only other guy worthy of an offer but I just can't offer either of them anything that they'd sign. I'd go after minor league deals for Rafael Furcal, Brendan Ryan and Nick frickin Punto. I'd throw a couple millon at each of them if need be to get one.

Outfield
Current status
Robbie Grossman and Nick Castellanos are options and Jon Singleton could rotate in on occasion. Austin Wilson is on his way, as are a few other guys who could help, but there is a few year gap here. I also don't have any sort of CF outside of Grossman. This is a need.

The market
Shin Soo Choo is as good as it gets here. I'd offer him 3 years, 60 million. Carlos Beltran is intriguing and would get a 2 year, 32 million dollar offer. I doubt that lands either guy.

Chris Young, Mike Morse, Franklin Gutierrez, Jason Kubel and Corey Hart would all be offered 1 year, 4 million dollar deals and I would see who would take it, if anyone. I may go higher on a couple of these guys as winter progresses and I don't lock any of them up.

Grady Sizemore and Rick Ankiel would be offered minor league deals.



Pitchers
Current Status
Kevin Gausman, Sonny Gray, A.J. Griffin and Kyle Gibson are my top four starters for 2014. 
Seth Maness, Chris Carpenter, Jorge Reyes, Ross Stripling and James Paxton are the guys I expect to be bullpen pieces with Stripling and Paxton having chances to fill the #5 spot. I have a handful of guys who could also be bullpen pieces in the high minors. The future of the rotation looks strong in the minors, so pitcher isn't a need but you can never have too much pitching.

The market
The biggest name to me is Masahiro Tanaka from Japan. I would have to win the posting fee to negotiate with him. I'd post $32.49 million for a posting fee. I would then offer him 6 years, 54 million for a contract. I'm not confident either of these amounts would get him signed but that's what I'd offer.

I'd like a lefty in my rotation. I'd offer Jorge De La Rosa a one year, 6 million dollar offer. Phil Hughes would get a two year, 14 million dollar offer. Matt Garza would get a 4 year, 60 million dollar offer. Joba Chamberlain would get a one year, 6 million. Josh Johnson would get a one year, 6 million dollar incentive laden offer.

After that is pretty much reclamation projects on short deals with incentives. 

Manny Parra would get a one year offer at 4 million. Jesse Crain would gt two years, 10 million to close games for me.


Step Two...narrowing down
Claimed Edwar Cabrera and Mat Gamel off waivers in October. Both would be good fits for my roster. That would help fill two more holes at the big league level.

In reality, this is a 70 win team, tops, right now. I don't know that throwing big money at free agents is the way to go. 

Offers

Catcher: AJ Pierzynski, two years, up to 12 million a year.

First Base: Jose Abreu is signed. Corner backup taken care of with Gamel. 

Second Base/ Shortstop: Gennett is the best option here. I need a short stop and a back up middle infielder. Ryan, Furcal and Punto would be offered one year deals up to 7 million a year. I'll take the two that actually sign for my Shadow Team.

Third Base: Eric Chavez at 1 yr, up to 6 million. Kris Bryant takes over when he gets hurt.

Outfield: Chris Young would get a 1 yr, 4 million dollar offer to be my CF. I'd go more on him on a one year deal.

I will re-address this when non-tenders come out.



UPDATE 12/6/13 : Looking at the future of my roster..F... it. I'm signing Cano if he'll take top dollar. 10 years, 250 million. Front loaded deal so payroll tops out around 100 million for now. 35mil the first 4 years, 25 mil for 5-6, 20 for 7-8, 10 for 9-10. I'll punt my 2nd round pick to compete now. 


Signings
Jose Abreu 4 yrs - 63.4 million
AJ Pierzynski 2yrs-24 million
Robinson Cano 10 years, 245 million
Chris Young, 1 year, 10 million
Joba Chamberlain 1 year, 3 million


Non-Tenders to sign to fill holes (will pay whatever they actually sign for. 17.6 million remaining in budget):
JP Arencibia (platoon-ish catcher)
John Axford (potential closer)
Andrew Bailey (potential closer)

Chris Coghlan (utility OF/IF)
Daniel Hudson (Potential 4th/5th starter)
Justin Turner (utility IF/OF)




1 comment:

  1. Read that Dom Brown is available if a team takes on Papelbon money..I'd be willing to do that if it doesn't take a lot to get him.

    ReplyDelete