Wednesday, September 4, 2013

It's getting to be that time again..

I've started setting up my spreadsheet for the end of the minor league season. It will give me enough data to statistically analyze every player in the minor leagues.

I have given up on the idea of using just a formula to rank players. It's a great theory, but it just doesn't work. I have a handful of very good tools that give me good, usable data. Some of it conflicts with other information. Some of it rates players highly, that shouldn't be rated highly. It's hard. Numbers aren't simple and formulas that I use get very complex. I literally have hundreds of spreadsheets I have used to come up with what I have now and at some point, I'd like to write about my process of how I have got here. In time..

No single value can ever sum up a player, especially when they cross several levels but I have yet to give up on the idea that I can assign a single value on each player and have it mean something. This is the closest I have come. I will share those numbers later this fall or early this winter.

Coming up over the next few weeks will be my Minor League Player of the Year, League top prospects and then team top prospects. Later in the winter, I will post my top prospects list as well, though I don't think I will do 2000 this year but I don't know.

I plan on writing a lot more for the 2014 draft and I plan to spend more time on that this winter due to higher demand for that than my prospect rankings. My brain works in different ways different days. Some days, I can't get numbers out of my head and need to work on stat analysis. This year I hope to do less heavy lifting with numbers. It's mentally taxing. Other days, looking at massive spreadsheets hurts my brain, especially after a long day at work, so those nights, I usually write about prospects or watch video.  I never have a set schedule, but this winter should be the best, most informative year at MLB Prospect Guide as well as at Minor League Ball.

If you have questions, look me up on twitter @mattgarrioch


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