Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Updating my Shadow System

This year, I'm doing this a little differently. From here forward, I will only be looking at players I drafted and international players I signed, eliminating existing Astros. I want this to be my team, not take credit for the great job that Jeff Luhnow and company have done in Houston liquidating MLB talent for prospects. To simplify the 2010 and 2011 drafts in which I intended to break the bank and sign all the players, I will only carry forward my picks in rounds 1-10 and the players that actually signed. This is more realistic than signing all the players. I did that to show how quickly a large investment at the amateur acquisition level could turn a team around. I will post a follow up about that in a year or two, using the logic I used when I did the drafts but for now, this is my shadow system.

This is my way of showing who I identified and thought were more valuable than others, while not losing out on all the talent I identified. This way, I can re-draft talent that I like that I previously drafted. I'm losing out on potential 1st round picks like Jonathon Crawford, Nick Burdi and others over the next two years but I can take them again if I'd like. I didn't like them enough to spend a high pick on them, so I can't claim I knew better than the rest in that way.

I also decided to look at my 2008 and 2009 rankings and while I didn't do a shadow draft for them, I went through the rankings I did and took the top player available at each Astros pick for those two seasons. I will add them to the system as well to help fill the rosters in and speed up the process by two years. I think I have improved considerably at talent evaluation since then but I still grabbed a few excellent picks, mostly because the teams that drafted them paid overslot when that was still a thing. I'm happy with the way the system shakes out and now I can start thinking about who I want to add this year.

These are the players that I will carry forward:

MLB

A.J. Griffin P
Justin Smoak 1B
Robbie Grossman OF

AAA

Sonny Gray P
Seth Maness P
Chris Hernandez P
Kyle Gibson P
James Paxton P
Jorge Reyes P
Chris Carpenter P
Jonathan Singleton 1B
Ryan Gennett 2B
Ryan Jackson SS
Nick Castellanos OF

AA

Kevin Gausman P
Dan Renken P
Michael Ojala P
Forrest Snow P
Dean Kiekhefer P
Arcenio Leon P
Cody Martin P
Alex Sogard P
Dan Barnes P

A+

A.J. Cole P
Ross Stripling P
Kyle Winkler P
Josh Osich P
Ethan Stewart P
Daniel Webb P
Colby Shreve P
Matt Lollis P
Hunter Cervenka P
Curtis Casali C
Tyler Hanover 2B
Tyler Rahmatulla 2B
Garin Cecchini 3B
Preston Tucker OF
Isaac Galloway OF
Josh Sale OF
A

Lance McCullers P
Mitch Brown P
Daniel Norris P
Drew Cisco P
Jharel Cotton P
Evan Rutckyj P
Brett Mooneyham P
Austin Maddox  P
Madison Younginer P
Max Stassi C
Christian Walker 1B
Roderick Shoulders 1B
Creede Simpson 2B
Adrian Morales 3B
Stetson Allie 3B
Rio Ruiz 3B
Adalberto Mondesi SS
Phillip Evans SS
Carlos Correa SS
Taylor Dugas OF
Jake Cave OF
Kyle Robinson OF
Danry Vasquez OF

Extended Spring Training

Mauricio Silva P
Amir Garrett P
Casey Upperman P
Dillon Maples P
Tim Brechbuehler P
Tim Melville P
Brett Hunter P
DeAndre Smelter P
Hunter Virant P
Tomas Nido C
Charles Moorman C
Matt Rice C
Kris Bryant 1B
Jared Lakind 1B
Eric Arce 1B
Martin Peguero 2B
Josh Tobias 2B
Amaurys Minier 3B
Matthew Dean 3B
Kevin Ross 3B
Mitchel Martes 3B
Wendell Rijo SS
Frandi Delarosa SS
Luis Enrique Acosta SS
Yairo Munoz SS
Austin Wilson OF
Derek Fisher OF
Manuel Margot OF
Yoel Araujo OF
Vicmal De La Cruz OF
Hersin Martinez OF
Luis Barrera OF
Ryan Garvey OF
Khiry  Cooper OF
Willie Argo OF
Danny Poma OF
Joseph Loftus OF
Iosif Bernal OF
Other

James Jones P released
Michael Palazzone P released
Daniel Marrs P released
Kyle Necke P released
Austin Urban P released
Brett Bruening P Restricted List
Kendal Volz P retired

1st round picks:
2008 Justin Smoak
2009 Kyle Gibson
2010 Josh Sale
2010 Nick Castellanos
2011 Sonny Gray
2012 Carlos Correa

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