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Showing posts from April, 2013

Updating my Shadow System

This year, I'm doing this a little differently. From here forward, I will only be looking at players I drafted and international players I signed, eliminating existing Astros. I want this to be my team, not take credit for the great job that Jeff Luhnow and company have done in Houston liquidating MLB talent for prospects. To simplify the 2010 and 2011 drafts in which I intended to break the bank and sign all the players, I will only carry forward my picks in rounds 1-10 and the players that actually signed. This is more realistic than signing all the players. I did that to show how quickly a large investment at the amateur acquisition level could turn a team around. I will post a follow up about that in a year or two, using the logic I used when I did the drafts but for now, this is my shadow system.

This is my way of showing who I identified and thought were more valuable than others, while not losing out on all the talent I identified. This way, I can re-draft talent that I lik…

GAPPER 4-26-13

I'm not going to write a lot about these guys as many we are well aware of. A few interesting names show up though.

Top 15 hitters this weekTeamLevelNick CastellanosTigersAAAXander BogaertsRed SoxAAArismendy AlcantaraCubsAADalton PompeyBlue JaysADanry VasquezTigersAJorge BonifacioRoyalsA+Jose RamirezIndiansAATyler GoeddelRaysAJose OsunaPiratesA+Adalberto MondesiRoyalsAJonathan SchoopOriolesAAAJonathan GalvezPadresAAAAaron AltherrPhilliesA+Brandon DruryDiamondbacksARoderick ShouldersCubsATop 15 pitchers this weekTeamLevelTrevor BauerIndiansAAAJesse BiddlePhilliesAAColin RodgersRoyalsATaijuan WalkerMarinersAAMatt AndriesePadresAAEduardo RodriguezOriolesA+Michael WachaCardinalsAAATyler SkaggsDiamondbacksAAAAaron SanchezBlue JaysA+David HolmbergDiamondbacksAAHenry OwensRed SoxA+Mark SappingtonAngels

Draft Profiles

The Development of GAPPER: Garrioch's Analytical Prospect Point Ranking

The amount of value currently being placed on unproven minor league talent calls for the identification of key attributes that lead to a player reaching the major leagues. This is a commodity that should be heavily invested in. Originally, I did research on the MLB Draft, analyzing college, high school and junior college picks in each round to see what percentage of each made it to the majors. I added the additional variable of position but the results were too variable and not personal enough.
The next step was analyzing performance. I did not use advanced metrics, only the standard counting stats for this process because of the variation in any subjective statistics and scouting at the minor league level. I analyzed many years of data to find the correlation between minor league performance and reaching the major leagues.
I created a weighted point system to represent these numbers for an overall score to track in-season progress but the core of my system comes from full season analys…

Comparing MLB and International Slots

This years' international signing period will have slots. Sorting them with the MLB Draft, we can see where these players would slot in the MLB Draft, according to MLB. The Astros would get 1st (between 7th and 8th overall), 4th, 5th and 6th round picks while the Nationals would get 4th, 5th, 6th and 10th round picks.

First Slot:
6- 1st Round
1- Supplemental 1st Round
7- 2nd Round
1- Supplemental 2nd Round
13- 3rd Round
2- 4th Round

Second Slot:
20- 4th Round
10- 5th Round

Third Slot:
13- 5th Round
17- 6th Round

Fourth Slot:
4- 6th Round
15- 7th Round
4- 8th Round
5- 9th Round
2- 10th Round

OOTP 14 Review