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Showing posts from March, 2013

2013 MLB Draft Order

First Round1Houston Astros2Chicago Cubs3Colorado Rockies4Minnesota Twins5Cleveland Indians6Miami Marlins7Boston Red Sox8Kansas City Royals9Pittsburgh Pirates (Appel)10Toronto Blue Jays11New York Mets12Seattle Mariners13San Diego Padres14Pittsburgh Pirates15Arizona Diamondbacks16Philadelphia Phillies17Chicago White Sox18Los Angeles Dodgers19St. Louis Cardinals20Detroit Tigers21Tampa Bay Rays22Baltimore Orioles23Texas Rangers24Oakland Athletics25San Francisco Giants26New York Yankees27

Cincinnati Reds

2013 MLB Draft: Sean Manaea vs Tom Windle at Metrodome

Friday night was a good night to watch baseball in Minnesota. That is a nearly unheard of statement at any time during the season, let alone March 15th.
Taking the mound for Minnesota was Tom Windle, a lefty who is a late 1st round to second round type of arm. Indiana State had Sean Manaea, a lefty who is in the discussion for the first overall pick. It was exciting for me to get away from my couch scouting and see a live game. It was 4.5 hours worth of driving, and honestly, a little underwhelming, but still a good time.
I got there not too much before the game started. There were a lot of scouts in attendance. I'm not in the loop enough to know who anyone is working for other than an Orioles scout, Cardinals scout and the Twins scouting director.
I was hoping to see the dominant stuff that I saw from Manaea at the Cape Cod League All Star Game but it wasn't there. He was 92-94 mostly with the fastball. He hit 95 on one pitch on a gun in front of me. He easily dominated Goph…

Top Prospect Projection Breakdown

Top ISO Power guys
NamePOSORGhigh levelJoey Gallo3BTEXA-Daniel Vogelbach1BCHCA-Miguel Sano3BMINAAnthony Rizzo1BCHCMLBLewis BrinsonCFTEXRookieBrandon MillerRFWANA-Mike ZuninoCSEAAACorey DickersonLFCOLAAEvan GattisLF-CATLAAMichael PerezCARIRookieAlex GlennRF-LFARIRookieMatt Adams1BSTLMLBC.J. Cron1BLAAA+William SwannerCCOLATelvin NashLFHOUA+Mac WilliamsonRFSFA-Domingo SantanaRFHOUA+Javier BaezSSCHCA+Oscar TaverasCFSTLAAYazy Arbelo1BARIAA
Top Selling out for power (highest XBH/H rate)
NamePOSORGhigh levelAnthony Rendon3BWANAAJoey Gallo3BTEXA-Lewis BrinsonCFTEXRookieYazy Arbelo1BARIAAMiguel Sano3BMINADaniel Vogelbach1BCHCA-Brandon MillerRFWANA-Michael PerezCARIRookieTelvin NashLFHOUA+Trayce ThompsonCFCHWAAACorey DickersonLFCOLAAAnthony Rizzo1BCHCMLBJoe BensonCFMINMLBBrett EibnerCFKCA+Alex GlennRF-LFARIRookiePatrick Leonard3BKCRookieEvan GattisLF-CATLAADilson Herrera2BPITA-Stryker TrahanCARIRookieKent MatthesRFCOLAA
Best Contact Rate
NamePOSORGhigh levelORGAderlin MejiaSS-3BMINA+MINAlex Yarbroug…

Minor League Stats to MLB Career Projections

The Idea
I have been working on ranking minor leaguers with stats for 4 years now. It doesn't work. There are too many variables and even at the MLB level, developing one number to rank them all (WAR) doesn't work, so there is no way it will in the minors. What I have decided to do is look at projections instead. I don't use minor league equivalencies. I hate MLE's. I dislike the concept and the application even more. What I did was more comparison based.
I took the formulas I used in the past, applied percentages, found groups and found more exact comparisons, assigned MLB data from comps, regressed and viola. Projections for how similar minor leaguers performed in the majors and the chance that they even make it.
The percentages and groupings were released earlier this year for sale. Now I've developed this system. Right now, I only have a good system done for hitters. It's not great, it's good but could be improved upon. I've already altered it some …

2013 MLB Draft Top Prospects

Rank. Name, Pos, School, Level, Risk: 1. Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Potential for two plus-plus pitches
The Bad: High effort delivery. 2. Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Big power, good hit tool, good arm
The Bad: May be a 1B, so bat has to play 3. Clint Frazier, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Crazy tools, athletic
The Bad: Intensity could burn him out. 4. Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Potential for two plus-plus pitches
The Bad: May be a RP if change doesn't improve 5. Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Polished bat with power coming
The Bad: Power may be average or below at 1B 6. Dominic Smith, 1B, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Huge power potential
The Bad: May be a 1B. Hitting mechanics need work. 7. Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Elite power potential, big arm
The Bad: Hit tool needs work, could end up at 1B 8. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford, SR,…

All-Prospect Lineup for 2013

SS Nolan Fontana
2B Jedd Gyorko
RF Oscar Taveras
DH Khris Davis
1B Matt Adams
LF Evan Gattis
3B Stefen Romero
C Tony Sanchez
CF Gary Brown


Kole Calhoun
Tim Federowicz
Joe Panik
Brock Holt

If this team had an average pitching staff, I think it could flirt with .500.