Wednesday, February 6, 2013

My New Projection System at Work


I'm working on a projection system for hitters to project their big league career averages. Not season data or how they will progress through their career yet, just career averages based on similar players. The data, I feel, is pretty damn solid.

For a comparison, I am using the top 10 hitter from the 2006 Baseball America list and using data from 2005 and back. I use up to 3 years of data if available but less works, just a little more volatile. Stephen Drew was the most volatile player on this list but it was still very accurate. While there are deviations in each section, overall it does seem to point toward the players future success.
The age of debut seems poor at this point, often a year or more off but that is more related to opportunity and teams pushing their top talent.


Projected Actual
2006 BA top 100 rank AVG OBP SLG OPS SB BB K AGE OF DEBUT avg obp slg ops age
1. Delmon Young 0.276 0.325 0.480 0.805 7 43 135 21.64 0.284 0.317 0.425 0.742 20.349
2. Justin Upton 0.277 0.349 0.469 0.818 0 66 111 20.21 0.278 0.357 0.475 0.832 19.342
3. Brandon Wood 0.274 0.292 0.556 0.848 0 16 156 21.79 0.186 0.225 0.289 0.513 22.055
4. Jeremy Hermida 0.276 0.341 0.409 0.750 0 59 124 22.12 0.257 0.334 0.415 0.749 21.213
5. Stephen Drew 0.266 0.345 0.414 0.758 9 72 111 22.84 0.265 0.328 0.433 0.762 23.121
9. Lastings Milledge 0.270 0.340 0.426 0.766 0 64 117 22.42 0.269 0.328 0.395 0.723 21.055
11. Prince Fielder 0.293 0.352 0.567 0.918 0 55 138 22.21 0.287 0.393 0.538 0.931 21.035
12. Howie Kendrick 0.278 0.338 0.455 0.793 1 54 121 23.80 0.292 0.328 0.428 0.756 22.288
13. Alex Gordon 0.272 0.344 0.455 0.798 2 66 112 23.58 0.269 0.348 0.439 0.787 23.051
14. Andy Marte 0.294 0.351 0.533 0.883 0 53 132 21.42 0.218 0.277 0.358 0.635 21.229


Looking at the percent correlation to OPS, overall I'm happy with it. Delmon underachieved due to his ridiculous swinging habits. Brandon Wood was a colossal whiff but something about the 16 BB to 156 K ration should get your attention in my projection. It foretold the fact that Lastings Milledge was over rated and he even still under achieved. Even a predicted slugging of .567 wasn't enough for big Prince, as he has still outpaced my prediction. Andy Marte was a big ole whiff as well. I have no clue why. He was a hell of a prospect.

2006 BA top 100 rank % Error - OPS
1. Delmon Young -8.50%
2. Justin Upton 1.69%
3. Brandon Wood -65.39%
4. Jeremy Hermida -0.09%
5. Stephen Drew 0.50%
9. Lastings Milledge -5.99%
11. Prince Fielder 1.36%
12. Howie Kendrick -4.90%
13. Alex Gordon -1.42%
14. Andy Marte -39.07%

So, I think this is working. I will run the numbers on the top 100 hitting prospects for this year and email them out to anyone who has purchased my prospect percentages as soon as I'm done. It will probably be this weekend for all of the prospect draft happening. So if you want these for your draft, buy one here or click the right side bar and let it guide you thru PayPal. Only $9.99.

If you have questions, hit me up on twitter, or email me at MLBProspectGuide at gmail dot com


1 comment: