Monday, February 18, 2013

Jose Canseco Projection

"so bigness could develop and dominate."

As I've posted, I'm working on a projection system. It takes three seasons worth of minor league data to get a good handle on who a player is, though less can create a projection, just with a larger variance.

This is what I would my projection system created for Professor Canseco using his AA, Hi A and Short season data from his 18, 19, 20 year old seasons.


The top lines are projections for the range of where a player is likely to end up. The middle is the most likely but if you really like a player, aim toward the higher level. The career projection is not the most accurate but how can you project a career for a 20 year old, right? It's an educated guess and a ballpark as to whether the system likes a player or not.

The percentages are how likely a player is to max out at that level. Canseco is an example of a low risk prospect with a high likelihood of success. The second chart is how likely a player is to continue to play at the big league level throughout his career. An average hitter seems to be at about replacement level at 80% from what I can see but I have not ran any diagnostics on this yet. 

This is just one projection. I plan on doing many more. Let me know if you like the layout or the design, or dislike it or if you have requests.

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