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Jose Canseco Projection

"so bigness could develop and dominate."

As I've posted, I'm working on a projection system. It takes three seasons worth of minor league data to get a good handle on who a player is, though less can create a projection, just with a larger variance.

This is what I would my projection system created for Professor Canseco using his AA, Hi A and Short season data from his 18, 19, 20 year old seasons.


The top lines are projections for the range of where a player is likely to end up. The middle is the most likely but if you really like a player, aim toward the higher level. The career projection is not the most accurate but how can you project a career for a 20 year old, right? It's an educated guess and a ballpark as to whether the system likes a player or not.

The percentages are how likely a player is to max out at that level. Canseco is an example of a low risk prospect with a high likelihood of success. The second chart is how likely a player is to continue to play at the big league level throughout his career. An average hitter seems to be at about replacement level at 80% from what I can see but I have not ran any diagnostics on this yet. 

This is just one projection. I plan on doing many more. Let me know if you like the layout or the design, or dislike it or if you have requests.

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Over the next month or so, I will be moving most Draft related info to MLB Draft Prospects. MiLB Prospects will be more focused on current minor leaguers.

These lists are far from perfect but it's a start

2011
Aaron Brown , OF , Chatsworth HS, Calif.
Aaron Westlake , OF , Vanderbilt
Aaron Collazo , SS , Lady Bird Johnson, San Antonio, TX
Aaron Deguire , C , El Camino College
Aaron Dunsmore , OF , Dayton
Aaron Fanning , SS , Northwest (TX) HS
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Aaron Johnson , LHP , Dunham, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Knapp , MIF , Granite Bay Granite Bay CA
Aaron Moore , RHP , Westwood Austin TX
Aaron Nola , RHP , Catholic, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Novak , OF/RHP , Germantown Academy (PA)
Aaron Thomassen , RHP , Nathan Hale Seattle WA
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Abram Cartledge , LHP , Thomson, Thomson, GA
Adam Bennett , SS/RHP , …

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