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Jose Canseco Projection

"so bigness could develop and dominate."

As I've posted, I'm working on a projection system. It takes three seasons worth of minor league data to get a good handle on who a player is, though less can create a projection, just with a larger variance.

This is what I would my projection system created for Professor Canseco using his AA, Hi A and Short season data from his 18, 19, 20 year old seasons.


The top lines are projections for the range of where a player is likely to end up. The middle is the most likely but if you really like a player, aim toward the higher level. The career projection is not the most accurate but how can you project a career for a 20 year old, right? It's an educated guess and a ballpark as to whether the system likes a player or not.

The percentages are how likely a player is to max out at that level. Canseco is an example of a low risk prospect with a high likelihood of success. The second chart is how likely a player is to continue to play at the big league level throughout his career. An average hitter seems to be at about replacement level at 80% from what I can see but I have not ran any diagnostics on this yet. 

This is just one projection. I plan on doing many more. Let me know if you like the layout or the design, or dislike it or if you have requests.

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Names to Watch for 2011 and 2012 Draft

For more information on the draft, check out my new blog MLB Bonus Baby for more information regarding the draft.

Over the next month or so, I will be moving most Draft related info to MLB Draft Prospects. MiLB Prospects will be more focused on current minor leaguers.

These lists are far from perfect but it's a start

2011
Aaron Brown , OF , Chatsworth HS, Calif.
Aaron Westlake , OF , Vanderbilt
Aaron Collazo , SS , Lady Bird Johnson, San Antonio, TX
Aaron Deguire , C , El Camino College
Aaron Dunsmore , OF , Dayton
Aaron Fanning , SS , Northwest (TX) HS
Aaron Gretz , C , Apple Valley, Apple Valley, MN
Aaron Johnson , LHP , Dunham, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Knapp , MIF , Granite Bay Granite Bay CA
Aaron Moore , RHP , Westwood Austin TX
Aaron Nola , RHP , Catholic, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Novak , OF/RHP , Germantown Academy (PA)
Aaron Thomassen , RHP , Nathan Hale Seattle WA
Aaron Westlake , 1B/OF , Vanderbilt
Abram Cartledge , LHP , Thomson, Thomson, GA
Adam Bennett , SS/RHP , …

Top 300- 2010 MLB Draft Prospects

Name POS Schools
1 Bryce Harper C Southern Nevada CC
2 Jameson Taillon RHP The Woodlands (Texas) HS
3 Anthony Ranaudo P LSU
4 Drew Pomeranz LHP Mississippi
5 Nick Castellanos 3B Archbishop McCarthy HS, FLA
6 Bryce Brentz OF Middle Tennessee State
7 AJ Cole P Oviedo HS, Orlando
8 Zack Cox 3B Arkansas
9 Austin Wilson OF Harvard-Westlake HS, CA
10 Deck McGuire RHP Georgia Tech
11 Karsten Whitson RHP Chipley HS, Bartow, Fla.
12 Christian Colon SS Cal State Fullerton
13 Matt Harvey P North Carolina
14 Levon Washington 2B/OF Chipola JC
15 Manny Machado SS Brito Prep, Miami
16 Josh Sale OF Bishop Blanchet HS, SEA
17 Chris Sale LHP Florida Gulf Coast
18 Jedd Gyorko 2B West Virginia
19 Brandon Workman P Texas
20 Stetson Allie 3B St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio
21 Brian Ragira OF Martin HS, Arlington
22 Dylan Covey P Maranatha HS, Pasadena, CA
23 Derek Dietrich SS Georgia Tech
24 DeAndre Smelter P Tattnall Square GA
25 Kevin Gausman RHP Grandview HS, Aurora, Colo
26 Cameron Bedrosian P East Coweta HS, Sharpsburg, GA
27 Jos…