Monday, February 25, 2013

College Baseball Weekend Notes 2-25-13

Carlos Rodon looked good enough to lose 100 games this season just for the chance to draft him. He pitched 7 no-hit innings against La Salle. He K’d 14 and walked one. All I saw was a poor video feed but there is no doubt in my mind that, right now, he is the slam dunk 1st overall pick next season. Don Olsen (@olsen_don) noted that he was 92-94 with hard tailing FB and his slider had good tilt and bite to it. Sounds like his semi-rough first start was a fluke.

Cody Poteet looked good against Baylor. The numbers weren't great. The stuff was inconsistent but he showed a very impressive breaking ball. It was an unhittable pitch at times. He is a player that could make a serious impact at UCLA over the next few years and could be a top pick in the 2015 draft.

Trea Turner was also his impressive self. He is the most exciting player in NCAA baseball right now. He can hit, run and plays solid defense. He is fun to watch.

I watched more of was Florida Gulf Coast at Florida. Taylor Gushue is a unique player. He’s a very good hitter and is well beyond his years as a sophomore who is very young for his class because he left high school early to attend Florida. He has taken over the catching since Mike Zunino has moved on to pro ball. He could be an impact bat over the next two years. He hurt his foot at the end of one game I watched. Not sure where he is at there if it was minor or will cause him to miss time. Either way, he’s a name to know.

Richie Martin was a better short stop than I expected for Florida. He looked solid at the plate as well. He won’t hit for a lot of pop but the bat is good enough to watch. He has some speed on the base paths as well. I really liked what I saw of him.

Eric Hanhold started and held his own. He didn’t do overly well but his breaking ball grades out a tick above average for a future grade. His fastball had good tail and sink early in the game but was very inconsistent and his confidence seemed to waiver as well past the 2nd inning. He may not have a great freshman year but he should come around and be a contributor this season.
Michael Murray looked food for FGCU as well. I don’t know how great of a pro pitcher he’d be but he could be a good college arm over the next three years. Maybe his stuff improves over the next couple years but for pro ball purposes, Hanhold is the better prospect right now.

Other notes:

In other games this weekend, Mark Appel looked great against Fresno State. He held upper 90’s velocity into the late innings. His stuff was sharp and he hammered the zone. This is how he needs to pitch more often. He doesn’t need to do anything but challenge hitters.

Aaron Judge homered against Stanford yesterday. Kris Bryant put one out as well over the weekend.

FSU freshman Jameis Winston acted as closer for the Seminoles working in the low 90’s but getting into the mid 90’s.

James Kaprielian is the closer for UCLA as a freshman. He is a name to watch. He could be a 1st rounder in 2015. He K’d the side to end the game yesterday.

Washington State OF Jason Monda hit a 3-run homer. He’s eligible for the draft this year. Could go in the top 3 rounds.

Dale Carey hit a homer for Miami as well. He's not a power guy but could be a good 3rd round type guy for some team.

Cole Irvin pitched 8 innings for Oregon. He is a freshman LHP with quite a bit of potential.

Justin Garza for Fullerton apparently did very well according to a couple sources. He’s not a big guy but had been up to 94 in the past.

Carson Fulmer was 95-97 with a nasty slider this weekend for Vanderbilt.
Xavier Turner swung the bat well starting his career 10-25.

Skye Bolt for North Carolina did well and is 12-22 to start his prep career with 5 doubles as well. Colin Moran is still looking for his first extra base hit.

Saturday, February 23, 2013

MLB in an Alternate Universe Part II

The top 10 picks in the 2014 draft:

Bryce Harper OF
South Carolina
Dylan Bundy P
Jose Fernandez P
South Florida
Carlos Rodon P
North Carolina State
Archie Bradley P
Josh Bell OF
Brandon Nimmo OF
Daniel Norris P
Noah Syndergaard P
Dallas Baptist
Daniel Vogelbach 1B

Top 10 picks for the other draft:

Jurickson Profar SS 20
Javier Baez 3B 20
Taijuan Walker P 20
Xander Bogaerts SS 20
Miguel Sano 3B 20
Alen Hanson 2B 20
Gary Sanchez C 20
Luis Sardinas SS 20
Domingo Santana OF 20
David Perez P 20

Just think how quickly the top 4 teams would turn around if they would get one player from each group. Obviously all the teams would get helped by the draft but could you imagine a team getting Harper and Profar for being the worst team in baseball. Bundy and Walker for being 2nd worst. Rodon and Sano for being 3rd, that would get people excited for being bad wouldn't it.

I think the draft would be a big deal when they watched Rodon face Harper all season, then face each other in the bigs the next year. Right now, there are probably only about 10 million people too few who know who Rodon is.  This bother me and it just shouldn't be. This crazy idea could help promote MLB and the future of the game. It would promote college baseball, although I hate the NCAA and their idiotic rules. I would love to have the best prospects on TV at any time and see them develop without having to drive half way across the country to see a handful in a game face each other.

MLB could make this happen. It wouldn't be a pretty process but the end result could be amazing.

Friday, February 22, 2013

MLB in an Alternate Universe

So I've been thinking..I'm always thinking. I can't turn my brain off as long as I'm awake, so I followed my crazy idea.

What if MLB was a little more like NFL with it's developmental system. What if NCAA baseball was a big deal and most of the prospects that make an impact were in the NCAA? Most players would have to be at least 21 to play in the majors. Maybe even 22. This would hurt some guys. Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and others wouldn't make impacts in the majors. Mike Trout would be patrolling CF for East Carolina. Bryce Harper would be in RF, maybe even catcher for South Carolina. The OF would have Mason Williams, Jackie Bradley and Wil Myers. A pitching staff with Taylor Guerreri, Jordan Lyles and Chris Owings at SS. Hell yeah, that would be fun to watch. I'm confident they wouldn't even be ranked #1. The players coming out of college would make an immediate impact. They would be placed on the 40 man roster (may need to bump up to 50, I haven't ran the numbers) and would get guaranteed 3 year MLB contracts. Players would go to arbitration after that, just as the current MLB system works. The draft would only be 5 rounds. Players would be 21-22, so the best of the best would be better easier to pick out and the success rate should be much greater.

The problem is that college isn't the path for everyone. There would still need to be another level. A league for those who don't want to deal with school. The second league would be different. No school, no education benefit so the players have to get something. They would get paid. It wouldn't be great pay but the payday would be coming. They too wouldn't get to play in the majors until 21-22. They would play in this league until then. They would be insured at a level requisite of their talent in case they blow out their arm and never make it to the majors so players from the Dominican or Venezuela would still be able to help their families. Since the league would be small, players would have to be invited into the league by teams. Tryouts could be held. It would be similar to a team signing a player, just not to a specific team, just this league. This league would be a 10-12 team league of 18-21 year olds and each year a 3 round draft would occur. The order would be the same as the college draft order. Poor teams would be able to turn it around much, much quicker. This would really help teams turn around losing seasons quickly and they wouldn't have long runs of horrendous play...I'm looking at you Pittsburgh.

There would be a lot of players that wouldn't get into this league and many that wouldn't get drafted out of college. These players would make independent leagues very strong and another feeder league to the majors at no cost to MLB. This would replace the current minor league system. Some minor league teams would fold. This would really be a drastic change. The point is to bunch up talent into smaller areas to create more interest and make more immediate impact on the majors, so if a bunch of MiLB teams fold, that is collateral damage to me. Many employed by MiLB could get jobs in the college ranks because that could potentially turn into a cash cow.

A few more details. Players would not be eligible for the draft unless they are 21 years old as of 7/23 (the date curretnly used to determine sophomore draft eligibility).

The College World Series would be held as it is now with the finale on 6/26. A combine would be held from 7/5-7/7 and the drafts would be held on 7/13, 7/14 during the All-Star break. Players would have to declare for the draft. Once they declare for the draft, the team that drafts them gets their rights for 6 years. They sign the deal that is slotted or they go home. No restrictions on trading picks or players at any time but teams can't trade future picks, only current year picks. Just think, instead of your favorite team trading a prospect for a veteran to make a run, they could add a 21 year old college stud or an elite international player to make a playoff run and you'd have him for at least 6 years, if he deserves it.

25 players would be active for each game with the rest of the 40(50) man roster available at any time. Players would be paid $75,000 annually given in the signing bonus at draft time which would guarantee 3 years worth of pay. Anyone who would play in an MLB game would get paid at $500,000 prorated for every game that they play in the bigs.

Taking a look at how it could work, it is interesting. I used my top 2000 rankings for each age range and lined up last seasons draft order, which wouldn't be the norm because of all the comp picks, but the Blue Jays would have spent about $13 million and acquired these players:

Matthew Davidson 22 3B Southern California
Andrew Heaney 22 P Oklahoma State
Damien Magnifico 22 P Oklahoma
Brian Adams 22 OF Kentucky
Marcus Semien 22 SS California
Cameron Perkins 22 3B Purdue
Steve Nyisztor 22 2B Rutgers
Chris Taylor 22 SS Virginia
John Kuchno 22 P Ohio State
Edinson Rincon 22 3B
Carter Capps 22 P
Josh Sale 22 OF
Tyler Linton 22 OF
Rory Rhodes 22 1B
Dakota Bacus  22 P
Boss Moanaroa 22 1B

The Twins would have spent over $18 million and acquired these players:
Kevin Gausman 22 P LSU
Sam Selman 22 P Vanderbilt
Nolan Fontana 22 SS Florida
Jeffrey Gelalich 22 OF UCLA
Luke Bard 22 P Georgia Tech
Robert Refsnyder 22 2B Arizona
Krey Bratsen 22 OF Texas A&M
Bryan Mitchell 22 P North Carolina
Hak-Ju Lee 22 SS
Tyler Heineman  22 C
Zach Collier 22 OF
Alexis Aguilar 22 2B
Hector Hernandez 22 P
Tanner Peters 22 P

5 of them are upgrades over what they are running out there this year.

The Astros would improve for sure:
Wil Myers 22 OF South Carolina
Max Stassi 22 C UCLA
Pierce Johnson 22 P Missouri State
Eddie Butler 22 P Radford
Buck Farmer 22 P Georgia Tech
Josh Conway 22 P Coastal Carolina
Julio Teheran 22 P
Adrian Salcedo 22 P
Carlos Contreras 22 P
Cesar Galvez 22 2B

The Orioles would have got a little boost for their playoff run. Since Manny Machado would have been  starring for Florida International for another year yet, they would have got Kolten Wong instead and added Yordano Ventura to their bullpen and Brian Johnson as well as a RP/PH.

Kolten Wong 22 2B Hawaii
Josh Elander 22 C TCU
Brian Johnson 22 P Florida
Kevin Taylor 22 2B St. Joseph's
Jeff Ferrell 22 P Pitt CC
Yordano Ventura 22 P
Hansel Robles 22 P
Michael Clevinger 22 P

The First Round:
Team Name POS Commit - history
Houston Astros Wil Myers OF South Carolina
Minnesota Twins Kevin Gausman P LSU
Seattle Mariners Mike Zunino C Florida
Baltimore Orioles Kolten Wong 2B Hawaii
Kansas City Royals Tyler Skaggs P Cal State Fullerton
Chicago Cubs Shelby Miller P Texas A&M
San Diego Padres Trevor Bauer P UCLA
Pittsburgh Pirates Ryne Stanek P Arkansas
Miami Marlins Anthony Gose OF Arizona
Colorado Rockies Gerrit Cole P UCLA
Oakland Athletics Marcus Stroman P Duke
New York Mets Garin Cecchini 3B Louisiana State
Chicago White Sox Mark Appel P Stanford
Cincinnati Reds Nolan Arenado 3B Arizona State
Cleveland Indians Jacob Turner P North Carolina
Washington Nationals Chris Stratton P Mississippi State
Toronto Blue Jays Matthew Davidson 3B Southern California
Los Angeles Dodgers Brian Goodwin OF Miami-Dade College
St. Louis Cardinals Billy Hamilton OF Jones County Junior College
San Francisco Giants Jake Marisnick OF Oregon
Atlanta Braves Tommy Joseph C Arizona
Toronto Blue Jays Andrew Heaney P Oklahoma State
St. Louis Cardinals Drew Hutchison P Stetson
Boston Red Sox Nick Franklin 2B Auburn
Tampa Bay Rays Miles Head 1B Georgia
Arizona Diamondbacks Deven Marrero SS Arizona State
Milwaukee Brewers Tyler Naquin OF Texas A&M
Milwaukee Brewers Slade Heathcott OF Louisiana State
Texas Rangers Austin Maddox P Florida
New York Yankees Tyler Matzek P Oregon
Boston Red Sox Steven Rodriguez P Florida
Minnesota Twins Sam Selman P Vanderbilt
San Diego Padres Richie Shaffer 3B Clemson
Oakland Athletics Joe Panik SS St. John's
New York Mets Garrett Gould P Wichita State
St. Louis Cardinals Keyvius Sampson P Florida State
Boston Red Sox Michael Wacha P Texas A&M
Milwaukee Brewers Jordan Lyles P South Carolina
Texas Rangers Robbie Erlin P Cal Poly-SLO
Philadelphia Phillies Dane Phillips C Arkansas

The Other First Round:
Houston Astros Julio Teheran P
Minnesota Twins Hak-Ju Lee SS
Seattle Mariners Oswaldo Arcia OF
Baltimore Orioles Yordano Ventura P
Kansas City Royals Martin Perez P
Chicago Cubs Manny Banuelos P
San Diego Padres Bruce Rondon P
Pittsburgh Pirates Rymer Liriano OF
Miami Marlins Jonathan Galvez 2B
Colorado Rockies Marcell Ozuna OF
Oakland Athletics Avisail Garcia OF
New York Mets Yasiel Puig OF
Chicago White Sox Leury Garcia SS
Cincinnati Reds Cesar Puello OF
Cleveland Indians Daniel Corcino P
Washington Nationals Arodys Vizcaino P
Toronto Blue Jays Edinson Rincon 3B
Los Angeles Dodgers Julio Rodriguez P
St. Louis Cardinals Jonathan Villar SS
San Francisco Giants Jose Rafael De Paula P
Atlanta Braves Reymond Fuentes OF
Toronto Blue Jays Carter Capps P
St. Louis Cardinals Jae-Hoon Ha OF
Boston Red Sox Elvis Araujo P
Tampa Bay Rays Enny Romero P
Arizona Diamondbacks Nick Tropeano P
Milwaukee Brewers Christian Villanueva 3B
Milwaukee Brewers Rafael Ortega OF
Texas Rangers Jefry Marte 3B
New York Yankees Daniel Santana SS
Boston Red Sox Kennys Vargas 1B
Minnesota Twins Tyler Heineman  C
San Diego Padres Cristhian Adames SS
Oakland Athletics Theo Bowe OF
New York Mets Mitch Haniger OF
St. Louis Cardinals Michael Almanzar 3B
Boston Red Sox Robinson Yambati P
Milwaukee Brewers William Beckwith 1B
Texas Rangers Kyle Simon P
Philadelphia Phillies Jeff Soptic P

The best players that wouldn't have been drafted:
Ian Krol 22 P Arizona
Madison Younginer 22 P Clemson
Navery Moore 22 P Vanderbilt
Lex Rutledge 22 P Samford
Scott Griggs 22 P UCLA
Ian Gardeck 22 P Alabama
Cameron Coffey 22 P Duke
Jayce Boyd 22 1B Florida State
Alexander Lavisky 22 C Georgia Tech
JaDamion Williams 22 2B Maryland
Stetson Allie 22 3B North Carolina
Dylan Floro 22 P Cal State Fullerton
Anthony Gomez 22 SS Vanderbilt
Devon Travis 22 2B Florida State
Tanner Bushue 22 P John A. Logan College
Max White 22 1B Oklahoma
Arby Fields 22 OF Cypress Col
Mitch Garver 22 C New Mexico
Kyle Wren 22 OF Georgia Tech
Ryan Tella 22 OF Ohlone Col

Looks fun to me. What do you think?

Thursday, February 21, 2013

2013 MLB Draft Top Prospects

Rank. Name, Pos, School, Level, Risk:
1. Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Potential for two plus-plus pitches
The Bad: High effort delivery.
2. Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Big power, good hit tool, good arm
The Bad: May be a 1B, so bat has to play
3. Clint Frazier, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Crazy tools, athletic
The Bad: Intensity could burn him out.
4. Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Potential for two plus-plus pitches
The Bad: May be a RP if change doesn't improve
5. Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Polished bat with power coming
The Bad: Power may be average or below at 1B
6. Dominic Smith, 1B, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Huge power potential
The Bad: May be a 1B. Hitting mechanics need work.
7. Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Elite power potential, big arm
The Bad: Hit tool needs work, could end up at 1B
8. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford, SR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Potential for three plus pitches
The Bad: Too hittable for his stuff.
9. Jonathan Denney, C, Oklahoma HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Very good D, huge bat potential.
The Bad: He's a prep catcher in a deep class.
10. Justin Williams, OF, Louisiana HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Powerful, athletic, young.
The Bad: flaws in swing, throwing mechnics
11. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus slider
The Bad: May be a reliever due to mechanics and lack of change up
12. Jonathan Crawford, RHP, Florida, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus slider
The Bad: May be a reliever due to mechanics and lack of change up
13. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential for three plus pitches
The Bad: Football
14. Joe Martarano, 3B, Idaho HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus arm, plus hit, plus power potential.
The Bad: Football
15. Bobby Wahl, RHP, Mississippi, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Plus fastball and breaking ball
The Bad: May be a reliever due to mechanics
16. Ian Clarkin, RHP, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: low 90's fastball and plus breaking ball
The Bad: Not as much projection as most HS arms.
17. Austin Meadows, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Elite tools across the board.
The Bad: The tools may not translate to baseball skills. Questionable hit tool.
18. Reese McGuire, C, Washington HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Premium defense, good potential with the bat.
The Bad: Hit tool is inconsistent
19. Chris Okey, C, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Very good bat, very athletic.
The Bad: Smaller build. Not much projectability.
20. John Paul Crawford, SS, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential with the bat, good defense.
The Bad: May have to move off SS to 2B/3B
21. Philip Ervin, OF, Samford, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Elite bat speed, above average speed
The Bad: May be a corner guy. No projection.
22. Robert Kaminsky, LHP, New Jersey HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Easy velocity, already commands it.
The Bad: Short. Minimal projection.
23. Zack Collins, 1B, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Middle of the order bat potential.
The Bad: Inconsistent at the plate. Likely a 1B
24. Dustin Driver, RHP, Washington HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Advanced for a prep arm.
The Bad: Not a lot of projection.
25. Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Tennesee HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus breaking ball, good athlete.
The Bad: Inconsistent across the board.
26. Clinton Hollon, RHP, Kentucky HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus breaking ball, good athlete.
The Bad: Nagging injuries have hindered him
27. Dillon Overton, LHP, Oklahoma, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Solid three pitch mix. Very good command.
The Bad: No dominant pitch.
28. Jan Hernandez, 3B, Puerto Rico HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Big potential with the bat, good defender
The Bad: Will need bat to play up at 3B
29. Trey Ball, OF, Indiana HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Nice swing, big arm, above average power potential.
The Bad: Raw. Not a lock to stay in CF. May be LHP.
30. Jeremy Martinez, C, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Above average hitter, potential .300+ guy, solid D
The Bad: body concerns, DH if catching ability falters
31. Oscar Mercado, SS, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus defender, potentially average hit tool, speed
The Bad: Bat is weak
32. Brett Morales, RHP, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential for two plus pitches
The Bad: Not a lot of projection. Potential reliever
33. D.J. Peterson, 3B, New Mexico, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: One of the best college bats this year, big power
The Bad: Not sure if he can stick at 3B. Bat influenced by park?
34. Aaron Judge, OF, Fresno State, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Elite power potential, good athlete
The Bad: Hasn't translated to games.
35. Kevin Davis, RHP, Alabama HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Mid 90's fastball, breaking ball flashes plus
The Bad: No change up to speak of. Minimal projection
36. Casey Shane, RHP, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball with plus breaking ball.
The Bad: Delivery may need some work. Too many secondaries
37. Karsten Whitson, RHP, Florida, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Potential to have three plus pitches
The Bad: Shoulder surgery causes big concerns
38. Ryan Boldt, OF, Minnesota HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential. Plus speed, hit, defense.
The Bad: Raw tools. Needs development.
39. Marco Gonzales, LHP, Gonzaga, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Polish. Good three pitch mix. Plus Change.
The Bad: He is what he is. Minimal projection
40. Chris Rivera, SS, California HS, HS, Risk: Low
The Good: Good hitter, solid athlete, good up the middle defender
The Bad: May be a 2B. Not a lot of power.
41. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Easy velocity. Two potentially plus offerings. Projection.
The Bad: Big enough to have release point issues. Inconsistent.
42. Conrad Gregor, 1B, Vanderbilt, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Great hitter. Good glove at 1B.
The Bad: Lack of current power.
43. Dominic Ficociello, 2B, Arkansas, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Gifted hitter, athletic.
The Bad: Attitude. Runs hot and cold. Not enough power for 1B
44. Billy McKinney, OF, Texas HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Nice swing, good power potential.
The Bad: No standout tools or skills.
45. Daniel Palka, OF, Georgia Tech, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Plus power, plus arm. Good athlete.
The Bad: May need to move to 1B. Won't hit for high average
46. Cord Sandberg, OF, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Tools to rival anyone in the draft.
The Bad: Raw. Football is his biggest weakness.
47. Jonah Wesely, LHP, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball and breaking ball potential. 
The Bad: Unusual arm action.
48. Trey Williams, 3B, JC of the Canyons, J1, Risk: High
The Good: Average or better tools across the board.
The Bad: No elite tools. Effort concerns. Mayhave to move to OF. 
49. Nick Ciuffo, C, South Carolina HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Powerful bat, good defense
The Bad: hit tool, arm accuracy
50. Ryan McMahon, 3B, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Easy swing. Above average power projection.
The Bad: Needs polish.
51. Andy McGuire, SS, Virginia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Solid bat, average power, good defense
The Bad: Likely a 3B. Bat uncertain there
52. Kent Emanuel, LHP, North Carolina, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Pitchability. Plus changeup
The Bad: Current lack of velocity
53. Devin Williams, RHP, Missouri HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Mid 90's fastball with projectability
The Bad: Short track record
54. Jacoby Jones, OF, Louisiana State, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Above averge power, speed, arm
The Bad: Getting results from tools
55. Eric Jagielo, 3B, Notre Dame, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Above average power
The Bad: Defensive ability. May be a 1B
56. Garrett Williams, RHP, Louisiana HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Low 90's fastball with a solid breaking ball
The Bad: Past injury red flag (thoracic outlet syndrome surgery)
57. Travis Demeritte, 3B, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Bat speed, power projection, arm strength
The Bad: Long swing. A lot of pre swing movement.
58. Tom Windle, LHP, Minnesota, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Three average pitches.
The Bad: No true out pitch.
59. A.J. Vanegas, RHP, Stanford, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Upper 90's velocity, plus slider potential.
The Bad: Mechanics cause control issues.
60. Chris Oakley, RHP, New Jersey HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Low 90's fastball. Plus curve potential. Projectability.
The Bad: No third pitch.
61. Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Low to mid 90's fastball, plus breaking ball
The Bad: Command needs work. Has been hittable
62. Ryan Eades, RHP, Louisiana State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Plus fastball, flashed a plus curveball
The Bad: Inconsistent. Poor results for stuff.
63. Dylan Covey, RHP, San Diego, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Potential. Flashes three plus pitches. 
The Bad: No consistency. Learning a new way of life (Type I Diabetes)
64. Carlos Salazar, RHP, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Big arm, up to 96. Developing secondaries.
The Bad: Harsh delivery. Short track record.
65. John Sternagel, 3B, Florida HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Great hitting ability. Average power, maybe more.
The Bad: Doesn't profile well at any position.
66. Matthew McPhearson, OF, Maryland HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Top of the lineup hitter. Game changing speed. Potential elite CF.
The Bad: Raw. Poor competition to compare him to.
67. Austin Kubitza, RHP, Rice, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Fastball and slider that flash plus
The Bad: Really inconsistent mechanics
68. Michael O'Neill, OF, Michigan, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Average tools across the board.
The Bad: No standout tools. Streaky.
69. Tyler Danish, RHP, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Big arm. Nice breaking ball. Bulldog attitude. 
The Bad: Bulldog attitude.
70. Brian Ragira, 1B, Stanford, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Raw power, good bat. Strong arm.
The Bad: Limited to 1B. Slow runner. Needs swing work (Stanford)
71. Josh Hart, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Top of the lineup hitter, good defense
The Bad: May be a LF. Not a ton of power potential.
72. Derik Beauprez, RHP, Colorado HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Fresh arm. Low 90's fastball, plus change up.
The Bad: Short track record. May be a 1B.
73. Brian Navarreto, C, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Good power potential. Very solid behind the plate.
The Bad: Long swing.
74. Anfernee Grier, OF, Alabama HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Nice swing, plus speed, good arm
The Bad: Swing can get long. Will likely strike out a lot.
75. Michael Lorenzen, OF, Cal State Fullerton, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Tools upon tools. 
The Bad: Raw for a college player. Not sure if he's a pitcher of OF.
76. Dan Child, RHP, Oregon State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Big arm. Developing secondaries.
The Bad: Doesn't use size wel at all. No projection.
77. Colby Suggs, RHP, Arkansas, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Two above average MLB pitches now. Could help quickly.
The Bad: Not a lot of potential past what he is
78. Keegan Thompson, RHP, Alabama HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Two potential plus pitches. Average change. Athletic.
The Bad: Needs consistency.
79. Jason Hursh, RHP, Oklahoma State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Upper 90's fastball. Potential in secondaries. Helium guy.
The Bad: Recovering from TJ Surgery.
80. Alex Balog, RHP, California HS, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Big fastball in upper 90's, plus slider. Helium guy.
The Bad: Inexperience and inconsistency
81. Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP, Seminole State, J1, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball and breaking ball potential. 
The Bad: Change needs work. Breaking ball needs consistency.
82. Trevor Williams, RHP, Arizona State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Low to mid 90's fastball. Nice breaking ball.
The Bad: No out pitch. Likely reliever.
83. Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Huge power potential, big arm
The Bad: Inconsistent in all aspects. Position questions
84. A.J. Puk, LHP, Iowa HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Two plus pitch potential. Projection.
The Bad: Needs refinement across the board.
85. Cavan Biggio, 3B, Texas HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Plus hit tool.
The Bad: Hate the bat waggle. Not sure where he plays defensively
86. Aaron Blair, RHP, Marshall, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Plus fastball and change potential
The Bad: Breaking ball needs work.
87. Terry McClure, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus runner, good bat.
The Bad: Swing is long.
88. Rowdy Tellez, 1B, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Massive power potential
The Bad: Very long swing. Needs to watch his weight.
89. Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Vanderbilt, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Three pitch mix. Plus change
The Bad: Mechanics are bad. Likely reliever.
90. Connor Jones, RHP, Virginia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball. Average change and breaking ball
The Bad: Secondaries and mechnics need improvement.
91. Willie Abreu, OF, Florida HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Polished bat with power potential.
The Bad: Long swing. Likely a corner OF.
92. Scott Frazier, RHP, Pepperdine, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Solid fastball, developing secondaries.
The Bad: Needs to improve secondaries. Not much upside.
93. Jared King, OF, Kansas State, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Average bat, power, speed
The Bad: Corner OF, may end up at 1B. No projection
94. Sheldon Neuse, 3B, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Solid hitter, average power, good arm
The Bad: No solid defensive profile
95. Tyler Alamo, C, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Strong bat. Big power potential.
The Bad: Size will work against him behind the dish.
96. K.J. Woods, OF, South Carolina HS, HS, Risk: Extreme
The Good: Big power potential
The Bad: May end up at 1B. Needs work on swing.
97. Dale Carey, OF, Miami, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Solid bat, solid CF
The Bad: may be a 4th OF'er
98. Nick Longhi, 1B, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Bat is very good. Left arm is strong.
The Bad: Heavy feet. May not have bat at 1B. May be LHP.
99. Carson Baranik, RHP, Miami Dade, J2, Risk: High
The Good: Big arm up to 95, plus breaking ball
The Bad: Off field issues. Needs to watch his weight.
100. Kramer Robertson, SS, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Very good defensive SS
The Bad: Bat is a work in progress

Monday, February 18, 2013

Jose Canseco Projection

"so bigness could develop and dominate."

As I've posted, I'm working on a projection system. It takes three seasons worth of minor league data to get a good handle on who a player is, though less can create a projection, just with a larger variance.

This is what I would my projection system created for Professor Canseco using his AA, Hi A and Short season data from his 18, 19, 20 year old seasons.

The top lines are projections for the range of where a player is likely to end up. The middle is the most likely but if you really like a player, aim toward the higher level. The career projection is not the most accurate but how can you project a career for a 20 year old, right? It's an educated guess and a ballpark as to whether the system likes a player or not.

The percentages are how likely a player is to max out at that level. Canseco is an example of a low risk prospect with a high likelihood of success. The second chart is how likely a player is to continue to play at the big league level throughout his career. An average hitter seems to be at about replacement level at 80% from what I can see but I have not ran any diagnostics on this yet. 

This is just one projection. I plan on doing many more. Let me know if you like the layout or the design, or dislike it or if you have requests.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Out Of The Park Baseball 14

OOTP is the deepest and most realistic Baseball Game I have ever played. This year they have made a ton of improvements to an already great game to make it even more realistic. If you enjoy simulation baseball, its as good as it gets. If you want a phenomenal game and would like to support MLBPG, click the link on the right side bar and order the game through my site and I get a small commission. Everyone who pre-orders OOTP 14 by this Friday, Feb. 15. will save $5 ($34.99) and will be entered in a drawing to win a 64GB iPod touch or one of three $100 Amazon gift cards. They'll also get the game 3 days before its release in April.
OOTP 14 Features

Here are the new and revamped features you'll find in OOTP 14. As in past years, more surprise features will likely be added as we get closer to Opening Day. Stay tuned!

2013 Opening Day Major League Rosters

You'll love our 2013 roster set, which features not only up-to-date Opening Day rosters for all major league teams but also thousands of individually-rated players for all minor leagues and hundreds of players from the 2013 first-year player draft class. Major league player ratings are officially based on Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system, which has proven to be the most accurate player stats projection system on the market! The 2013 season will have plenty of drama in store. Will Mike Trout be able to improve upon his already legendary rookie season? How will Aroldis Chapman fare in the Cincinnati rotation? Will Washington with a healthy Stephen Strasburg and a more experienced Bryce Harper dominate the NL East? Will Toronto's all-in approach pay off? How will the AL West welcome Houston? Does Anaheim have the best lineup in baseball? Play OOTP 14 and find out!

Completely Recoded Player Origin System

We have completely recoded player origin to make your league's development much more realistic. There are now 5 different ways new players enter the league, and each one can be customized for the number of created players and their nationalities:

The First-Year Player Draft: By default, players in the draft pool are now from the USA, Canada or Puerto Rico. However, the nationality can be tweaked in great detail and can also include a set percentage of random nationalities. That also applies to the following optional player entry methods.

International Amateur Top Prospects (optional): These players are typically 16-to-17-years-old who have a reputation of being top talents. They appear as free agents in a new special international section of the league transaction screen and most likely will demand contracts with high signing bonuses (another new feature). You can customize the number of these players who will be created each year.

Established International Free Agents (optional): These players are typically from Japan, South Korea, Cuba, Taiwan and Mexico and are between 22 and 32 years old. They typically have slightly below average major league talent, but there will be the occasional star player, like Yu Darvish, Ichiro, or Aroldis Chapman.

International Scouting Discoveries (optional): Your team's scouts constantly evaluate the international leagues as they seek young, raw, and unknown talent. The success of your head scout is determined by the scouting budget, the quality of your scout, and his assigned regions. When your head scout discovers a player who he feels may have a shot at becoming a pro, that player is automatically assigned to your team's new international complex. Players in the international complex may remain there until their 20th birthdays, after which they will have to be assigned to a minor league team or released.

Players from Independent Leagues (optional): You may also have your head scout look for talent in hidden independent leagues. These players are typically from the league home nation, but once in a while an international talent may be discovered here too. Independent league players are typically in their early-to-mid-20s and usually only have an outside shot at becoming borderline major league players. However, there may be the occasional feel-good success story.

Recoded Player Creation Algorithms

As we sought to create more realistic player types and support the new player origin system, we recoded OOTP's complex player creation routines. This ensures more stable long-term simulations and more realistic player careers and stats output.

New Fielding Ratings Development System

In real life, young players usually start out playing positions that demand a certain grade of athleticism. However, as players mature, they often grow out of these so-called skill positions (such as shortstop, catcher, or center field) and have to shift to the right side of the defensive spectrum. This is now properly modeled in the OOTP player development engine. For example, if you draft that talented 18-year-old 6'3" 175 lb shortstop, you may end up with a below-average 230 lb corner outfielder eventually.

Recoded Scouting System

We have recoded the way OOTP evaluates players, both for the OOTP Scouting Agency ("OSA") and your head scout. For example, players with several years of pro experience are now better scouted than in previous versions, and the OSA is more accurate overall, providing a valid second opinion on players. There are also players who are vastly overrated or underrated by almost all scouts, resulting in more late-round surprises.

Better Player Development Tracking

OOTP now properly tracks the development of your players and offers several ways to analyze the data. You receive monthly player development updates from your head scout (or the OSA, if scouts are disabled), who highlights the most important changes, such as when a pitcher in the lower minor leagues learns a new pitch and improves his prospect status.

Expanded Real-Time Simulation Experience

The real-time simulation feature was a big hit in OOTP 13 - all of you loved it! We have listened to your feedback and improved the experience, such as adding an expanded view on a single game that is currently in progress. This new view shows you the most important facts of the selected game, like the current batter-pitcher matchup, past plays, basic box scores, win probability, and so forth.

Improved Trading

We improve the trading AI each year, and OOTP 14 is no different. On top of that, we added a screen that keeps track of all the trades in the history of the league, with a detailed look at the involved players' salaries, overall ratings, prospect rankings, and so forth. OOTP 14 also adds a "Not interested in Player X" function that prevents the AI from repeatedly offering a certain player to you.

Miscellaneous Features

On top of these headline features, we are tweaking and improving other areas of the game too, such as:

Improved interface
Better player evaluation AI
Roster AI recoding, resulting in better managing of minor leagues and the 40-man roster
Better contract negotiation AI
Improved depth charts and pitching staff control, i.e. list your preferred pinch-hitters, pinch-runners and "LOOGY"-Pitcher.
New graphical depth chart screen
Improved league strategy settings; i.e., define the number of starting pitchers, relief pitchers, and position players carried by the AI teams, split by DH and non-DH sub-leagues.
Smarter in-game AI
Improved in-game control, including "Pitch to Contact" option and better stealing control in one-pitch mode
Much more storylines
Improved play-by-play commentary
One-click joining of online leagues
New playoff series analysis screen