Saturday, December 29, 2012

Example of my Info - post-2006 season

My project that is for sale shows categorizations of players and details how likely that type of player is to make it to the major leagues. It does not define how successful they will be at this point, only the skills that they offer as compared to players that have made the majors. It is based on the 2-8 scale. Speed is skewed down. If a player is a 4, he is pretty fast. The rest seem pretty well as they should be.

Here is a link to a Primer on my Rankings

Yesterday, I posted some information on the Arizona Diamondbacks with a picture of what my full data sheet would look like. I want you guys to see a little more of the data that I have and how useful it could be to go over as a companion to other prospect books and sites. As a stand alone, it's hard to get a lot from it but just looking at the percentages tells a lot. This is for the prospect junkies and it is data that isn't available anywhere else. This is currently available for the 2012 season at $9.99 on the right sidebar.

One thing I noticed from scanning it is Austin Jackson. Not in BA's top 10 after the 2006 season, he slid down the charts because of a "bad" season. What my numbers say, is to take a breath. His stats are elite once you look at where he is at age/level and compared to other players who made it to the majors. He was actually really, really good. That is the kind of stuff that could help you if you need to make decisions on prospects.

Take a look at my formulas applied to the 2006 season and let me know what you think or if you have questions. email me at mlbprospectguide at gmail dot com

This is the link to a google doc PDF of the 2006 season.

Friday, December 28, 2012

Arizona Diamondbacks Pitching Prospect Percentages

Below are all the pitchers and hitters in the Arizona Diamondbacks Organization and the percentages of reaching the majors based on similar players over the past two decades via information provided to me by The Baseball Cube. It is sorted by the group percentage. The second percentage is based on a more specific group of players that are similar to the player. The list is sorted by the larger group, the second percentage gives a bit more insight into how likely the player is to succeed or fail.

I won't be posting every team. I want to create a PDF of all the teams along with more of my information and sell it. If you are interested in such a product email me at MLBprospectguide at gmail.com and let me know and I will add you to the list and I will let you know when it is ready. I'm looking at a $9.99 sale price for all 30 teams and I would sell teams individually if you are interested.

Name age SP/RP Group Unique Level League Team
Trevor Bauer 21 SP 62.71% 100.00% AAA PCL Reno
Patrick Corbin 23 SP 62.71% 98.04% AAA PCL Reno
Tyler Skaggs 21 SP 47.89% 88.68% AAA PCL Reno
Charles Brewer 24 SP 44.24% 80.84% AAA PCL Reno
Zach Kroenke 28 SP 41.61% AAA PCL Reno
Joe Martinez 29 SP 41.61% AAA PCL Reno
Chris Jakubauskas 33 SP 36.05% AAA PCL Reno
Daniel Cabrera 31 SP 34.55% AAA PCL Reno
Brett Tomko 39 SP 30.99% AAA PCL Reno
Tom Layne 27 SP 24.60% 74.82% AAA PCL Reno
Bryan Henry 27 SP 24.60% 74.82% AAA PCL Reno
Barry Enright 26 SP 24.60% 69.02% AAA PCL Reno
Matt Gorgen 25 RP 22.21% 75.54% AAA PCL Reno
Sam Demel 26 RP 20.33% 76.92% AAA PCL Reno
Jonathan Albaladejo 29 RP 20.33% AAA PCL Reno
Joe Paterson 26 RP 16.40% 69.02% AAA PCL Reno
Jensen Lewis 28 RP 16.40% AAA PCL Reno
Jason Lane 35 RP 16.40% AAA PCL Reno
Mike Demark 29 RP 16.40% AAA PCL Reno
Bryan Woodall 25 RP 13.72% 53.06% AAA PCL Reno
Taylor Sinclair 26 RP 8.79% 38.46% AAA PCL Reno
Tyler Skaggs 21 SP 62.71% 90.20% AA Sou Mobile
Trevor Bauer 21 SP 56.73% 83.33% AA Sou Mobile
David Holmberg 21 SP 47.89% 64.39% AA Sou Mobile
Eury De La Rosa 22 RP 44.04% 81.82% AA Sou Mobile
Conrad Flynn 23 SP 40.00% 50.00% AA Sou Mobile
Derek Eitel 24 SP 36.89% 29.69% AA Sou Mobile
Brett Lorin 25 SP 36.89% 29.47% AA Sou Mobile
Patrick Corbin 23 SP 36.81% 42.75% AA Sou Mobile
Bradin Hagens 23 SP 36.81% 42.75% AA Sou Mobile
Brett Tomko 39 SP 33.33% AA Sou Mobile
Kevin Munson 23 RP 31.88% 52.00% AA Sou Mobile
Chase Anderson 24 SP 31.73% 41.06% AA Sou Mobile
Michael Bolsinger 24 SP 31.73% 41.06% AA Sou Mobile
Charles Brewer 24 SP 30.77% 33.33% AA Sou Mobile
Bryan Henry 27 SP 24.60% 33.06% AA Sou Mobile
Gaby Hernandez 26 SP 24.60% 24.35% AA Sou Mobile
Matt Gorgen 25 RP 24.49% 56.25% AA Sou Mobile
Eric Smith 23 RP 23.27% 33.04% AA Sou Mobile
Evan Marshall 22 RP 22.41% 58.74% AA Sou Mobile
Bryan Woodall 25 RP 16.40% 24.23% AA Sou Mobile
Bo Schultz 27 RP 14.50% 40.00% AA Sou Mobile
Taylor Sinclair 26 RP 14.50% 38.17% AA Sou Mobile
Yonata Ortega 25 RP 13.72% 16.60% AA Sou Mobile
David Holmberg 21 SP 62.71% 62.77% A+ Calif Visalia
Anthony Meo 22 SP 53.85% 40.00% A+ Calif Visalia
Patrick Schuster 21 RP 51.79% 54.05% A+ Calif Visalia
Michael Bolsinger 24 SP 41.50% 27.91% A+ Calif Visalia
Raymond Hernandez 24 SP 36.89% 13.53% A+ Calif Visalia
Andrew Chafin 22 SP 36.84% 38.81% A+ Calif Visalia
Blake Cooper 24 RP 35.12% 27.91% A+ Calif Visalia
Taylor Siemens 23 SP 31.73% 22.81% A+ Calif Visalia
Alexander Carreras 22 SP 30.00% 0.00% A+ Calif Visalia
Seth Simmons 24 RP 28.57% 23.08% A+ Calif Visalia
Jeff Shields 22 SP 27.91% 0.00% A+ Calif Visalia
Michael Belfiore 23 RP 27.23% 35.10% A+ Calif Visalia
Bradin Hagens 23 SP 27.21% 16.35% A+ Calif Visalia
Willy Paredes 23 SP 24.60% 8.70% A+ Calif Visalia
Conrad Flynn 23 SP 24.60% 8.70% A+ Calif Visalia
Kyle Winkler 22 RP 23.27% 18.41% A+ Calif Visalia
Victor Capellan 23 RP 20.33% 0.00% A+ Calif Visalia
Diogenes Rosario 24 RP 19.41% 21.74% A+ Calif Visalia
Jeremy Erben 25 RP 19.41% 13.33% A+ Calif Visalia
Eric Smith 23 RP 16.44% 11.24% A+ Calif Visalia
Bo Schultz 27 RP 16.40% 13.10% A+ Calif Visalia
D.J. Johnson 23 RP 14.32% 33.33% A+ Calif Visalia
Tyler Green 20 SP 59.25% 41.35% A Midw South Bend
J.R. Bradley 20 SP 59.25% 41.35% A Midw South Bend
Archie Bradley 20 SP 56.73% 41.27% A Midw South Bend
Grant Brown 20 SP 56.73% 41.27% A Midw South Bend
Jesse Darrah 22 SP 44.24% 26.30% A Midw South Bend
Jeff Shields 22 SP 31.73% 16.21% A Midw South Bend
D.J. Johnson 23 RP 27.23% 22.14% A Midw South Bend
Kable Hogben 22 RP 26.21% 16.21% A Midw South Bend
Willy Paredes 23 RP 26.21% 14.11% A Midw South Bend
Taylor Siemens 23 SP 24.60% 7.74% A Midw South Bend
Conrad Flynn 23 SP 24.60% 7.74% A Midw South Bend
John Pedrotty 22 SP 24.60% 5.98% A Midw South Bend
Keith Hessler 23 SP 22.89% 6.86% A Midw South Bend
Andrew Barbosa 24 SP 22.45% 7.69% A Midw South Bend
Blake Perry 20 RP 22.09% 12.28% A Midw South Bend
Jake Barrett 21 RP 20.59% 15.16% A Midw South Bend
Seth Simmons 24 RP 19.41% 7.69% A Midw South Bend
Alex Capaul 23 RP 16.40% 7.74% A Midw South Bend
Matt Sample 24 RP 16.40% 7.11% A Midw South Bend
Frank Santana 23 RP 14.50% 7.04% A Midw South Bend
Kaleb Fleck 23 RP 13.72% 6.86% A Midw South Bend
Austin Platt 20 SP 36.06% 11.68% A- Nwst Yakima
Will Locante 22 RP 34.45% 17.44% A- Nwst Yakima
Alex Capaul 23 SP 33.33% 4.20% A- Nwst Yakima
Enrique Burgos 21 RP 31.88% 10.71% A- Nwst Yakima
Blake Perry 20 SP 31.73% 15.87% A- Nwst Yakima
Jose Martinez 18 SP 31.48% 46.15% A- Nwst Yakima
Daniel Watts 22 SP 24.60% 7.52% A- Nwst Yakima
Kyle Owings 22 SP 24.60% 7.52% A- Nwst Yakima
Alexander Carreras 22 SP 24.60% 7.52% A- Nwst Yakima
Cody Wheeler 23 SP 24.60% 5.03% A- Nwst Yakima
Derrick Stultz 23 SP 24.60% 5.03% A- Nwst Yakima
Jose Jose 22 RP 24.49% 17.44% A- Nwst Yakima
Victor Capellan 23 RP 20.33% 8.89% A- Nwst Yakima
Frank Santana 23 RP 17.05% 3.49% A- Nwst Yakima
Victor Acosta 22 RP 16.40% 7.52% A- Nwst Yakima
R.J. Hively 23 RP 14.50% 4.20% A- Nwst Yakima
Blake Forslund 22 RP 13.72% 5.94% A- Nwst Yakima
Ben Eckels 18 SP 62.71% 38.10% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Andrew Potter 18 SP 47.89% 22.28% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Jonathan Pulley 19 SP 41.50% 22.97% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Austin Platt 20 SP 41.50% 18.56% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Geordy Parra 19 SP 31.73% 13.50% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Luis Hernandez 20 SP 31.73% 9.30% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Donny Medlinger 22 RP 27.23% 11.11% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Will Locante 22 RP 27.23% 11.11% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Tanner Hamilton 23 RP 20.33% 7.79% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Eric Meyerchick 22 RP 16.40% 5.44% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Jeffrey Gibbs 21 RP 14.50% 6.75% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Francisco Guzman 23 RP 14.50% 1.64% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Harry Marino 22 RP 14.32% 4.85% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Elroy Urbina 23 RP 13.72% 1.69% RK Ariz Diamondbacks
Chris Pack 25 SP 36.05% 20.00% RK Pio Missoula
Karl Triana 19 SP 31.73% 13.50% RK Pio Missoula
Andrew Barbosa 24 SP 30.14% 12.73% RK Pio Missoula
Justin Thompson 22 RP 27.23% 11.11% RK Pio Missoula
Vince Spilker 22 RP 27.23% 11.11% RK Pio Missoula
Christopher Thomas 22 SP 24.60% 5.44% RK Pio Missoula
Yoimer Camacho 22 SP 24.60% 5.44% RK Pio Missoula
Ross Gerdeman 22 SP 24.60% 5.44% RK Pio Missoula
Jared Ray 23 SP 24.60% 0.78% RK Pio Missoula
Michael Rivera 21 RP 17.05% 20.00% RK Pio Missoula
Chris Capper 21 RP 16.40% 5.95% RK Pio Missoula
Patrick Smith 22 RP 16.40% 5.44% RK Pio Missoula
Dexter Price 22 RP 16.40% 5.44% RK Pio Missoula
Chase Stevens 22 RP 14.32% 4.85% RK Pio Missoula
Michael Blake 22 RP 14.32% 4.85% RK Pio Missoula



Arizona Diamondbacks Position Prospect Percentages

NameAgepositGroupUniqueLevelLeagueTeam
Adam Eaton23CF78.21%100.00%AAAPCLReno
Jake Elmore25SS-2B78.21%100.00%AAAPCLReno
Ryan Wheeler243B-1B75.50%94.34%AAAPCLReno
A.J. Pollock24CF56.19%89.66%AAAPCLReno
Josh Bell253B47.72%86.08%AAAPCLReno
Taylor Harbin262B-SS39.44%87.38%AAAPCLReno
Cole Gillespie28RF-LF39.44%AAAPCLReno
Mike Jacobs311B27.27%AAAPCLReno
David Winfree27LF19.79%68.18%AAAPCLReno
Rusty Ryal292B-3B19.79%AAAPCLReno
Konrad Schmidt28C18.99%AAAPCLReno
Randy Ruiz341B18.99%AAAPCLReno
Ryan Budde33C18.99%AAAPCLReno
Tyler Kuhn26LF-2B15.84%67.77%AAAPCLReno
Evan Frey26CF15.84%67.77%AAAPCLReno
Tyler Bortnick252B15.84%67.11%AAAPCLReno
Brent Clevlen28CF-LF15.84%AAAPCLReno
Tyler Graham28LF-CF10.76%AAAPCLReno
Matthew Davidson213B84.20%84.54%AASouMobile
Alfredo Marte23RF75.50%79.83%AASouMobile
David Nick222B56.19%62.34%AASouMobile
Rossmel Perez23C52.36%60.21%AASouMobile
Chris Owings21SS48.53%58.55%AASouMobile
Marc Krauss24LF-RF47.72%48.44%AASouMobile
Evan Frey26CF46.15%AASouMobile
Yazy Arbelo241B19.79%28.28%AASouMobile
Daniel Kaczrowski25LF-SS19.79%20.71%AASouMobile
Ed Easley26C19.79%17.81%AASouMobile
Kyle Greene261B19.79%17.81%AASouMobile
Archie Gilbert29LF-CF19.79%AASouMobile
Ryan Strieby271B19.79%AASouMobile
Wladimir Sutil27SS19.79%AASouMobile
Brent Clevlen28CF-LF19.79%AASouMobile
Bobby Borchering21LF-RF10.76%25.00%AASouMobile
Raoul Torrez24LF-3B10.76%9.68%AASouMobile
Bobby Borchering21LF-RF68.70%30.00%A+CalifVisalia
Ender Inciarte21CF57.14%50.00%A+CalifVisalia
Raywilly Gomez22C52.36%46.24%A+CalifVisalia
Gerson Montilla222B52.36%46.24%A+CalifVisalia
Chris Owings21SS48.53%46.94%A+CalifVisalia
Keon Broxton22CF47.72%40.52%A+CalifVisalia
Garrett Weber233B-2B47.72%27.20%A+CalifVisalia
Jon Griffin231B47.72%27.20%A+CalifVisalia
Yazy Arbelo241B40.77%23.26%A+CalifVisalia
Mike Freeman25SS-2B32.08%A+CalifVisalia
Carter Bell223B19.79%19.61%A+CalifVisalia
Tyson Van Winkle24C19.79%8.93%A+CalifVisalia
Raoul Torrez24LF-3B19.79%8.93%A+CalifVisalia
Eric Groff242B19.79%8.93%A+CalifVisalia
Ryan LaPensee24RF19.79%8.93%A+CalifVisalia
Chris Valencia25RF-LF15.84%5.73%A+CalifVisalia
Archie Gilbert29LF-CF4.48%A+CalifVisalia
Ender Inciarte21CF52.36%45.00%AMidwSouth Bend
Raul Navarro20SS48.53%37.23%AMidwSouth Bend
Marc Bourgeois23LF-RF40.77%AMidwSouth Bend
Tom Belza23LF39.44%18.59%AMidwSouth Bend
Ryan Court243B39.44%AMidwSouth Bend
Matt Helm273B39.44%AMidwSouth Bend
Christopher Ellison23RF-CF28.04%AMidwSouth Bend
Fidel Pena21C-2B19.79%12.25%AMidwSouth Bend
Roidany Aguila21C19.79%12.25%AMidwSouth Bend
Gerson Montilla222B19.79%10.26%AMidwSouth Bend
Kerry Jenkins23LF19.79%6.43%AMidwSouth Bend
Josh Parr23SS19.79%6.43%AMidwSouth Bend
Nick Gallego23SS19.79%6.43%AMidwSouth Bend
Eric Groff242B19.79%AMidwSouth Bend
Sean Jamieson23SS15.84%6.43%AMidwSouth Bend
Bobby Stone221B10.76%2.92%AMidwSouth Bend
Ronnie Freeman21C19.79%18.17%A-NwstYakima
Kevin Medrano22SS-2B19.79%10.99%A-NwstYakima
Shaun Cooper22LF19.79%10.99%A-NwstYakima
Mark Ginther223B19.79%10.99%A-NwstYakima
Yogey Perez-Ramos23LF19.79%4.92%A-NwstYakima
Jacob House231B19.79%4.92%A-NwstYakima
Joseph Loftus23RF19.79%4.92%A-NwstYakima
Danny Poma23CF19.79%4.92%A-NwstYakima
Michael Lang23CF-RF19.79%4.92%A-NwstYakima
Josh Parr23SS19.79%4.92%A-NwstYakima
Jimmy Comerota251B-LF19.79%A-NwstYakima
Wagner Mateo191B15.84%13.38%A-NwstYakima
Steve Rodriguez22C15.84%10.99%A-NwstYakima
Stryker Trahan18C48.53%36.50%RkArizDiamondbacks
Andrew Velazquez182B48.53%36.50%RkArizDiamondbacks
Chuck Taylor19RF-CF19.79%9.81%RkArizDiamondbacks
William Castillo202B19.79%7.48%RkArizDiamondbacks
Alex Glenn21RF-LF19.79%7.25%RkArizDiamondbacks
Brian Billigen22LF-CF19.79%4.56%RkArizDiamondbacks
Ryan Fuller223B19.79%4.56%RkArizDiamondbacks
Phildrick Llewellyn181B15.84%13.49%RkArizDiamondbacks
Jose Munoz18SS15.84%13.49%RkArizDiamondbacks
Anderson Bolivar20C15.84%7.48%RkArizDiamondbacks
Justin Bianco20RF-CF15.84%7.48%RkArizDiamondbacks
Jacob Williams211B15.84%7.25%RkArizDiamondbacks
Damion Smith18LF10.76%7.29%RkArizDiamondbacks
Miles Walding233B10.76%RkArizDiamondbacks
Yosbel Gutierrez19C48.53%26.40%RkPioMissoula
Jacob Lamb213B40.77%16.67%RkPioMissoula
Michael Perez20C19.79%7.48%RkPioMissoula
Socrates Brito20RF19.79%7.48%RkPioMissoula
Evan Marzilli21CF19.79%7.25%RkPioMissoula
Breland Almadova21LF-CF19.79%7.25%RkPioMissoula
Tyler Bream211B19.79%7.25%RkPioMissoula
Pedro Ruiz21SS19.79%7.25%RkPioMissoula
Rudy Flores211B19.79%7.25%RkPioMissoula
Ty Linton21LF19.79%7.25%RkPioMissoula
Danny Pulfer222B19.79%4.56%RkPioMissoula
Justin Bianco20RF-CF15.84%7.48%RkPioMissoula
Alex Glenn21RF-LF15.84%7.25%RkPioMissoula
Andrew Velazquez182B10.76%7.29%RkPioMissoula
John Leonard202B-SS10.76%1.89%RkPioMissoula


Monday, December 17, 2012

Noah Syndergaard and why he's not a lock to succeed

Yeah, he has a ton of potential. The thing is, he only pitched in LowA ball this year. Here is a list of players that had similar age 20 seasons in Low A ball. For all of you guys out there who love K's, this list is sorted by K%. Some very good names, some ugly ones. To all of you Mets fans, have faith but don't expect immediate dominance. Be patient and don't expect Doc Gooden. You may get Hiawatha Terrell Wade. If I would widen this list it would include Josh Beckett and Johnny Cueto as well. There is a chance he becomes very good. The same was expected of Troy Patton too.

year Name
2010 Julio Rodriguez
2005 Gio Gonzalez
1993 Terrell Wade
2007 Zach Braddock
1999 Andy Pratt
2008 Rob Bryson
1991 Hector Fajardo
2004 Travis Chick
2008 Neftali Feliz
2012 Kyle Smith
2012 Henry Owens
1998 Luis Rivera
2012 Jose Fernandez
1996 Alberto Blanco
1996 Octavio Dotel
2004 Travis Chick
2011 Keyvius Sampson
1992 Albie Lopez
1991 Joseph Norris
2005 Troy Patton
1998 Clayton Andrews
2012 Noah Syndergaard
2006 Eduardo Morlan
2000 Jovanny Cedeno
1994 Jason Beverlin
2004 Jonathan Figueroa
2004 Clint Everts
1993 LaTroy Hawkins
2009 Wily Peralta
1996 Eric Gagne
2001 Luis Rodriguez
1994 Carey Paige
1997 Alberto Garza
2010 Jake Odorizzi
1999 Enmanuel Ulloa
2010 Wilmer Font
2002 Matt Peterson
1994 Tom Fordham
2005 Anthony Swarzak