Sunday, November 11, 2012

A Case for Aaron Hicks

Hicks has been looked at as a failing prospect for the last couple years. This year he turned it around some but even looking at his 2011 numbers, there are some pretty solid players that had very similar seasons.

All of these guys had the same skill profile in high A at 21.
1994 Mike Cameron
1995 Magglio Ordonez
1997 Carlos Lee
1997 Ramon Hernandez
2005 Nick Markakis
1999 Marcus Giles
2003 Shin-Soo Choo
2007 Pablo Sandoval
1995 Bobby Estalella
1993 Tony Graffanino
2001 Bill Hall
1999 Juan Rivera
2002 Rocco Baldelli
2001 Garrett Atkins
2008 Josh Reddick
2002 Ronny Paulino
1999 Ty Wigginton
2004 Casey McGehee
2001 Ryan Langerhans
2010 Steve Lombardozzi
2002 Laynce Nix
2000 Hee Seop Choi
1998 Marcus Thames
2008 Logan Morrison

That translates to a 57% chance of making the majors with the chance of being a 1st division starter.

2012 rolls around and things look even better. A near 100% chance he makes it to the majors. THe only player that has a similar profile and didn't make it was Baltimore's Scott Hunter in 1998.

1990 Bernie Williams
1991 Jeromy Burnitz
2004 Shin-Soo Choo
1990 Pat Kelly
2004 Nate McLouth
2009 Peter Bourjos
1993 Brian Hunter
1998 Mike Darr
1991 Kevin Flora
1993 Ray McDavid
2005 Eider Torres
1998 Marcos Scutaro
1999 Reggie Taylor
1998 Scott Hunter
2012 Aaron Hicks
2002 Alexis Gomez

Pretty solid company. I doubt he becomes a Bernie type but a Nate McLouth type player isn't that far out of the realm. He'd cover center better and has a better arm and he could hit as well as Nate did at his peak. It will be interesting to see what happens. Lets hope for the Twins that he isn't Brian Hunter.

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