Thursday, November 29, 2012

2010 Astros Shadow Draft Review

Looking at my Shadow Draft from 2010 is a little clearer today than it was yesterday with BA's college top 100 going up today. My first unsigned pick was the #4 overall pick from 2012 in Kevin Gausman, since he was a draft eligible sophomore. The rest are eligible in the 2013 draft. Eight of the players that didn't sign out of my draft are now top 100 college players. 5 are in the top 25 and Kevin Gausman would be on this list as well had he not signed last year.
I personally like some of these guys more than other prospecting venues, so using BA's list will take out my personal preferences. Doing this review prior to their list wouldn't have given it the credibility I hoped it to have. 

Austin Wilson, OF, STL 
Kris Bryant, 3B, TOR 

Jacoby Jones, SS, HOU 
Dale Carey, OF, PIT
Brian Ragira, OF, TEX 

Daniel Child, P, SD
Lonnie Kauppila, SS, OAK
Jonathan Crawford, P, FLA

Other Prospect of note:
Kevin Gausman, P, LAD
Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET
A.J. Cole, P, OAK
Garin Cecchini, SS, BOS
Josh Sale, OF, TB 
Stetson Allie, 3B, PIT (I know, my bad. I can be a velo whore once in a while. I'm working on it.)
Drew Cisco, P, CIN 
Chris Hernandez, P, BOS 
Jared Lakind, 1B, PIT (I'd put him on the mound this year)
Evan Rutckyj, P, NYY

I may be over-rating these guys, but I think that 8-10 of these guys will be in Top 10 prospects for their various  teams next year as long as Gausman and Castellanos still qualify.

At the time, I figured it would have cost just under $26 million to sign all these guys. It may have been less, may have been more. I'm not sure. It is all speculation. I was essentially taking the money that was due to be paid to Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman and re-investing it in the farm.

MLB would have rose hell with me. Other owners would have been angry and I wouldn't have cared. Jeremy Guthrie just signed a deal for 3 yrs/$25 million. If I could have spent $26 million and had this base of players to build off of. I guarantee that if any of the owners would ask their GM if they would take Guthrie for 3 years or this group, they would all take it. If not, they should be fired.

I would have bucked the system and this is the start of reinforcing my reasoning and my ability to identify talent. It was a two year window to exploit a market inefficiency. If the MLB team is going to be putrid, get the most out of it. Spend the money elsewhere and build for the future. Houston is a big market and if the team starts winning, it will get good free agents. Baseball is big business and I would turn that investment into a contending team in a hurry in a big market. That means big money in TV revenue and many other venues. This is the start of a team that can compete in the AL West quickly and make the return on this investment a great one.

I have a lot of ideas. Some are good, some are bad. This was an easy one to demonstrate and fun to watch unfold. I hope some of you have changed your mind and think that doing this would have been a good idea for a franchise, not just a dumb unrealistic idea. Just because the idea isn't conventional doesn't make it wrong. I just wish an MLB team would have really done it.

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