Thursday, November 29, 2012

2010 Astros Shadow Draft Review

Looking at my Shadow Draft from 2010 is a little clearer today than it was yesterday with BA's college top 100 going up today. My first unsigned pick was the #4 overall pick from 2012 in Kevin Gausman, since he was a draft eligible sophomore. The rest are eligible in the 2013 draft. Eight of the players that didn't sign out of my draft are now top 100 college players. 5 are in the top 25 and Kevin Gausman would be on this list as well had he not signed last year.
I personally like some of these guys more than other prospecting venues, so using BA's list will take out my personal preferences. Doing this review prior to their list wouldn't have given it the credibility I hoped it to have. 

Austin Wilson, OF, STL 
Kris Bryant, 3B, TOR 

Jacoby Jones, SS, HOU 
Dale Carey, OF, PIT
Brian Ragira, OF, TEX 

Daniel Child, P, SD
Lonnie Kauppila, SS, OAK
Jonathan Crawford, P, FLA

Other Prospect of note:
Kevin Gausman, P, LAD
Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET
A.J. Cole, P, OAK
Garin Cecchini, SS, BOS
Josh Sale, OF, TB 
Stetson Allie, 3B, PIT (I know, my bad. I can be a velo whore once in a while. I'm working on it.)
Drew Cisco, P, CIN 
Chris Hernandez, P, BOS 
Jared Lakind, 1B, PIT (I'd put him on the mound this year)
Evan Rutckyj, P, NYY

I may be over-rating these guys, but I think that 8-10 of these guys will be in Top 10 prospects for their various  teams next year as long as Gausman and Castellanos still qualify.

At the time, I figured it would have cost just under $26 million to sign all these guys. It may have been less, may have been more. I'm not sure. It is all speculation. I was essentially taking the money that was due to be paid to Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman and re-investing it in the farm.

MLB would have rose hell with me. Other owners would have been angry and I wouldn't have cared. Jeremy Guthrie just signed a deal for 3 yrs/$25 million. If I could have spent $26 million and had this base of players to build off of. I guarantee that if any of the owners would ask their GM if they would take Guthrie for 3 years or this group, they would all take it. If not, they should be fired.

I would have bucked the system and this is the start of reinforcing my reasoning and my ability to identify talent. It was a two year window to exploit a market inefficiency. If the MLB team is going to be putrid, get the most out of it. Spend the money elsewhere and build for the future. Houston is a big market and if the team starts winning, it will get good free agents. Baseball is big business and I would turn that investment into a contending team in a hurry in a big market. That means big money in TV revenue and many other venues. This is the start of a team that can compete in the AL West quickly and make the return on this investment a great one.

I have a lot of ideas. Some are good, some are bad. This was an easy one to demonstrate and fun to watch unfold. I hope some of you have changed your mind and think that doing this would have been a good idea for a franchise, not just a dumb unrealistic idea. Just because the idea isn't conventional doesn't make it wrong. I just wish an MLB team would have really done it.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Alen Hanson

He burst on to the scene this year. I was looking for some other players that had similar seasons. The list is pretty impressive with further emphasis on the fact that prospecting is difficult.

1991 Chipper Jones
2000 Hank Blalock
1992 Cliff Floyd
2003 Erick Aybar
2012 Alen Hanson
2011 Christian Yelich
2003 B.J. Upton
1998 Luis Matos
1991 Rondell White
2003 Hanley Ramirez
2008 Nick Noonan
1991 Darren Burton
2006 Cameron Maybin
1998 Darnell McDonald
2008 Abraham Almonte
1999 Tyler Minges
2007 Brent Brewer

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Future Plans

Right now I'm working through some personal stuff but I should have more information up here over the coming couple months as well as more information available elsewhere.

This year I will be selling two different PDF files. One will focus on the draft, detailing, I hope, about 120 players. It will have a few other articles about things I find interesting about the draft. It might be about JuCo players, it may be on players ages, I'm not sure yet. It will be good information that will make you a better fantasy player going forward. It will make you enjoy the MLB draft more and hopefully help you follow the top prospects of your favorite team.

The other will be about the minors. It will be similar to the PDF that I put out last year with percentages of how likely a player is to make it to the majors. It will detail what kind of player each is likely to become. I'm not sure how I will present it or even what I will present yet beyond those two things. I'm still doing the analysis of the enormous amount of data I got from The Baseball Cube . I want the data to be useful and you to get something from it. I want it to be accurate but there is only so much accuracy that stats can give you with minor leaguers because they are human, not machine.

I'm not sure if I should present a historic version to show how the system works or what would be best to show success rates. I'm not sure if I want to do a career projector to show how players have developed or regressed over their minor league career or even how many players to detail. I don't want it to be overwhelming but I also don't want to leave you wondering how another prospect lines up against others. If you have any feelings about this, comment here or find me on twitter or email. I'm always around and I'd appreciate input.

I'm not sure on price point or delivery method. It will be reasonable and likely just be an email of a PDF to you so you can read it on whatever you want. Let me know if you have a preference or feeling about the price. I know I will never do this for a living or get rich but a few bucks to cover a trip this spring and one this summer would be great. I replaced my computer this summer as well and that's still sitting on a credit card. I'd love to pay that off. We will see if there is enough interest, but I think what I am working on is pretty good stuff.

Thanks for reading. I appreciate it.

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Abner Abreu

I remember when I thought he was going to be really good. Well, the stats said he would too, but it was  a consistent fall from grace.

Abner Abreu
Star Type

Abner Abreu
2nd Division Starter

Abner Abreu
Bench Player
Abner Abreu
2nd Division Starter

Abner Abreu
4A Slugger

Abner Abreu

A Case for Aaron Hicks

Hicks has been looked at as a failing prospect for the last couple years. This year he turned it around some but even looking at his 2011 numbers, there are some pretty solid players that had very similar seasons.

All of these guys had the same skill profile in high A at 21.
1994 Mike Cameron
1995 Magglio Ordonez
1997 Carlos Lee
1997 Ramon Hernandez
2005 Nick Markakis
1999 Marcus Giles
2003 Shin-Soo Choo
2007 Pablo Sandoval
1995 Bobby Estalella
1993 Tony Graffanino
2001 Bill Hall
1999 Juan Rivera
2002 Rocco Baldelli
2001 Garrett Atkins
2008 Josh Reddick
2002 Ronny Paulino
1999 Ty Wigginton
2004 Casey McGehee
2001 Ryan Langerhans
2010 Steve Lombardozzi
2002 Laynce Nix
2000 Hee Seop Choi
1998 Marcus Thames
2008 Logan Morrison

That translates to a 57% chance of making the majors with the chance of being a 1st division starter.

2012 rolls around and things look even better. A near 100% chance he makes it to the majors. THe only player that has a similar profile and didn't make it was Baltimore's Scott Hunter in 1998.

1990 Bernie Williams
1991 Jeromy Burnitz
2004 Shin-Soo Choo
1990 Pat Kelly
2004 Nate McLouth
2009 Peter Bourjos
1993 Brian Hunter
1998 Mike Darr
1991 Kevin Flora
1993 Ray McDavid
2005 Eider Torres
1998 Marcos Scutaro
1999 Reggie Taylor
1998 Scott Hunter
2012 Aaron Hicks
2002 Alexis Gomez

Pretty solid company. I doubt he becomes a Bernie type but a Nate McLouth type player isn't that far out of the realm. He'd cover center better and has a better arm and he could hit as well as Nate did at his peak. It will be interesting to see what happens. Lets hope for the Twins that he isn't Brian Hunter.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Statistical Update

I received a large amount of data from The Baseball Cube a few days ago and I am tearing through it right now using formulas I've created from past studies. This is by far the largest lump of clay I have ever had to work with and it's fun but time consuming.
I had been holding back on my lists until I could work on this some. I think within a week or two I will start posting team and age lists for the offseason.

I will also continue doing draft reports when I don't feel like burying myself in data so stay tuned.