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Showing posts from November, 2011

Breaking down the Top 2000

My Top 2000 is now posted here.

I used the same formula for 2004 and 2005 and ended up with very similar results. These are the results from the top 2000 for 2004 using the same formula as I currently use. The only difference is, the 2004 list doesn't exclude players exceeding 130 AB/50 IP for that year but does include draft picks. That will water down the numbers some. The results are pretty compelling to me. They were actually better than I expected.

It is still very hard to isolate players below AA but this is what I have for now.

Looking at these numbers can help approximate what to expect from my top 2000 for this season.

96% OF TOP 100 BECOME MLB PLAYERS AVERAGING 5.62 YRS OF MLB SERVICE
86% OF TOP 200 BECOME MLB PLAYERS
79% OF TOP 300 BECOME MLB PLAYERS
73% OF TOP 500 BECOME MLB PLAYERS AVERAGING 3.57 YEARS OF MLB SERVICE
62% OF TOP 1000 BECOME MLB PLAYERS AVERAGING 2.8 YEARS OF SERVICE
49% OF TOP 2000 BECOME MLB PLAYERS AVERAGING 2.1 YEARS OF MLB SERVICE

94% OF A GRADE…

Top 2000 Prospects

Top 2000 Prospects
This Ranking is based 100% on data. No preference for players was put into this. I don't have a way of updating all the teams that a player plays for and I haven't had the time to update that manually. I likely won't.

The Grade is based on a formula projecting the likelihood of improvement from a player with A being the most likely and NP being the lowest. As I said, no personal preference is given here. I understand players like Marwin Gonzalez are likely too high, but when a player is 22 in AAA, he has a higher tendency to succeed. That is the nature of numbers, it does not make it fact. It is just data and tendencies, not facts, but overall, I think it is pretty good for a data ranking system.

OVERALL Name , POS , TEAM GRADE

1 Julio Teheran , P , ATL A
2 Bryce Harper , OF , WSH A
3 Jacob Turner , P , DET A
4 Martin Perez , P , TEX A
5 Mike Trout , OF , LAA A
6 Manny Banuelos , P , NYY A
7 Manny Machado , SS , BAL A
8 Tyler Skaggs , P , ARI A
9 Antho…

Houston Astros Shadow System Update

The Houston Astros were just purchased by Jim Crane. After a lot of controversy, he was approved by the other owners. The deal came with a condition. He has to move his Astros to the A.L. West.Most of the reason for MLB wanting to move the Astros to the A.L. is that the Houston market is quite large. It will bring more eyeballs to the teams in the A.L. West and it potentially can grow the popularity of A.L. West teams. All the more reason to put a winning team on the field.As you guys probably know, I have been doing a shadow draft for the Astros the last two years and some have questioned the amount I would spend on the draft. I know this may seem unrealistic but the plan is to build a team from the bottom up instead of spending large sums on free agents. The Astros had $7 million dollars in operating income in 2010 and $14 million in 2011. If I spent $27 million on the in 2010 and $26 million this year to sign all the talent, the team would have had losses of $9 million and $7 milli…