Monday, February 21, 2011

The Complexity of Being a Baseball Prospector

So there are about 300 or so Division I teams, 230 or so Division II teams and I honestly don't know how many Division III, Junior colleges and other programs are out there. There are also 243 minor league teams including the short season leagues. This also includes the Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues. Once you breach that 18 year old barrier in the pro ranks, you should really look at 16 year olds in the States as well. Well that brings into account who knows how many schools scattered across the nation. How can anyone, or any organiztion for that matter, keep track of all of these players? It is so hard, next to no one even tries. I want to make it easier.
I want people to have the information that a prospect that may play in AA this season and is on most exerts top 100 list is only 2/3 of a year older than one of the most highly touted high schoolers in this draft. A player like Fernando Martinez has been written off most prospect lists, but last year would have been his draft year if he had been an american player that chose to play in college. Imagine the hype behind someone like Yasmani Grandal if he had stepped into AAA and put up the numbers the FMart did last season. He has been around so long, it's easy to forget who he should compared to. Travis Snider is only a year older than Vanderbilt OF Aaron Westlake. It's easy to forget these things, or to not know them at all.

My goal in the future is to provide these tiers and this informatino to you so you won't need to scour for hours to find out this information. I want to be your go to resource. Look for it in the coming weeks. It won't be 100% immediately but it will be a work in progress.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Skills Bell Curve

I was listening to the Up and In Podcast by Baseball Prospectus and they were talking about the 20-80 scale in players. It was originated by Branch Rickey and is based on standard deviations. This is just a basic outline of how standard deviations work and what the percentage of players each score should encompass.

Friday, February 11, 2011

Looking Back at My First Top Prospect List from Feb 2009

I looked at Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN and Project Prospect to see where I differed from the pack.

I had 13 players that no one else had:
56 Jaff Decker OF SD
58 Micheal Almanzar 3B BOS
68 Bryan Anderson C STL
72 Hank Conger C LAA
73 Tim Melville P KC
75 Yorman Rodriguez OF CIN
76 Oscar Tejeda SS BOS
77 Nick Barnese P TB
78 Josh Fields P SEA
81 Nick Noonan 2B SF
94 Cedric Hunter OF SD
95 Shooter Hunt P MIN
100 Matt Moore P TB

I have more unique picks than anyone else. A few of these guys have flopped but Decker, Conger, Rodriguez and Moore are solid picks. I think that will only increase as this goes along. I haven't looked at the 2010 or the new 2011 lists but it will be interesting to see.

Baseball America were unique with:
66 Lou Marson
71 Wilson Ramos
90 Daniel Cortes
94 Brad Holt
96 Sean West

Baseball Prospectus were unique with:
45 Willin Rosario
70 Scott Elbert
81 Ross Detwiler
84 Kellen Kulbacki
92 Kyle Drabek
98 Brandon Erbe
100 Adys Portillo

I was too low on Drabek as I had him at #166. He was a personal favorite but I restricted myself from putting him higher. I learned from that.

ESPN were unique with:
72 Chris Nelson
81 Nick Hagadone
90 Junichi Tazawa
97 Jeff Locke
98 Jay Jackson

Project Prospect were unique with:
60 Kila Ka'aihue
62 Danny Duffy
71 Dellin Betances
87 Kasey Kiker
90 Carlos Gutierrez
91 James Simmons
93 Shairon Martis
95 Nick Evans
100 Eric Young Jr.

Floors, Ceilings and MLB Likelihoods for over 5000 Minor Leaguers...free

I posted a table that has a ton of the research that I have compiled and assigned to 5256 players in the minor leagues. It is a bit ugly but you can find it here.

To find a player, hit ctrl+f and search. It will find the player and you can scroll over to see his numbers.
Below the table is a description of what the numbers mean. I have spent thousands of hours compiling, studying and assigning numbers. I am not going to give all my information away for free, but this is a taste of what I have. I hope some of it fascinates you and is useful to you.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

The Excitement of Football and How to Make Baseball More Exciting. One mans take.

So I'm watching the Super Bowl and I'm not much of a fan of football. I used to be, I just grew out of it. It frustrates and confuses me.

I always here football is exciting and baseball is boring. In football you have a full contact sport in which 70 plays(just a guess) are ran by each team. At best, a QB throws for 350 yards and a RB runs for 150 or so. Yes there can be extremes more than this but I think those are fair numbers to use. 500 Yds equals 1500 feet which is a bit less than 17 total bases. This equates to 4.25 runs. A little less than an average MLB team scores in every game.
A triple has a player run 270 feet in a few seconds. This is like a 90 yard run in football. I'm guessing there were more triples in MLB this season than 90 yeard runs in football. Yes they play 10 times more games, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that there were more than 10 times more triples than 90 yard runs.
Then there is the home run. Something unlike anything in football. An exciting split second that immediately changes the flow of a game. It's like a 60 yard touchdown toss, only that I would equate more to an RBI double. It counts as a score and is exciting, but not a split second game changer.
The best thing about baseball to me, is the fact that plays aren't called back. DOn't you love it when you're favorite player shoots thru a hole and runs 50 yards to a touchdown, only to be called back because your least favorite 300 pounder held another 300 pounder for a split second too long (not that any amount of holding between obese men is acceptable). This is not judged by anything quantifiable, only by whatever amount of time a ref feels is fair at the time. When plays get called back in baseball, George Brett makes history. In football, it happens all the time, so why get excited just to have your hopes dashed.
Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong. I should look at it as a football fan. The best parts are when a wide reciever outruns a defensive back by 10 yards,catches a ball and scores. Just like any player running down a ball in, say an outfield. Or when your favorite running back runs for a 40 yard run, or a hitter hitting a double. Many prefer the full contact action of the sport that is unique to footbal.
There are other intricacies of football, like the 1st down, that can't be equated to baseball but two of the biggest differences in football and baseball are contact and kickers. I know no one other than kickers like kickers, so I will ignore this. You are welcome.

So to make baseball more appealing to the masses, starting immediately, I would like to see a change to baseball. I want to see full contact baseball. I want to add five players to each team on the field at all times. None can weigh less than 300 LBS. These 10 players would line up behind the home plate umpire and before every pitch, I want the catcher to yell. This would tell the fat men when to charge each other and no points can be scored by these men as they are offensively ineligible, just as in football. The rest of the game would be unchanged. I could add that they could be eligible on certain trick plays as long as you tell the umpire or if they sneeze or twitch before the catcher yells, the pitcher moves 5' closer, but that is silly. What kind of sport would have rules like that?

After looking at the major differences in athletic accomplishments in each of these two sports, I feel baseball has the edge and by adding the one "exciting" thing that baseball lacks, this should allow MLB to soar to be the most popular sport to ever be played on this planet. Even more than Soccer. Oh yeah, Soccer is more popular than football...well that's another article.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Future Major Leaguers

Based on about 65000 statistical lines of minor league data, this list projects a 77% accuracy of predicting future Major Leaguers. This is far and away the best I've done, error wise. Here is the list of 2010 minor league stat lines that project future Major Leaguers. The probabailty of AAA players on this list is 85% at worst and the worst probability is Rookie Ball and Short Season players on this list, and that probability is stil 50%.

This is a 100% statistical analysis. None of my own opinion or any other subjective information is included. Just a standard stat line manipulated by the formulas I created.

Here it is sorted by team:
Brandon Allen , ARI
Barry Enright , ARI
Bryan Augenstein , ARI
Mark Hallberg , ARI
Pedro Ciriaco , ARI
Kable Hogben , ARI
Matthew Davidson , ARI
Bobby Borchering , ARI
Cole Gillespie , ARI
Freddie Freeman , ATL
Brandon Beachy , ATL
Craig Kimbrel , ATL
Todd Redmond , ATL
Mike Minor , ATL
Brandon Beachy , ATL
Randall Delgado , ATL
Mike Minor , ATL
Jose Ortegano , ATL
Scott Diamond , ATL
Julio Teheran , ATL
Cory Gearrin , ATL
Matt Young , ATL
Arodys Vizcaino , ATL
Brett Oberholtzer , ATL
Michael Dunn , ATL
Christian Bethancourt , ATL
Matt Lipka , ATL
Julio Teheran , ATL
Chris Tillman , BAL
Zachary Britton , BAL
Tyler Henson , BAL
Josh Bell , BAL
Brandon Erbe , BAL
Brandon Snyder , BAL
Matt Angle , BAL
Jake Arrieta , BAL
Robert Andino , BAL
Troy Patton , BAL
Xavier Avery , BAL
Nolan Reimold , BAL
Xavier Avery , BAL
Josh Reddick , BOS
Anthony Rizzo , BOS
Che-Hsuan Lin , BOS
Yamaico Navarro , BOS
Ryan Kalish , BOS
Nate Spears , BOS
Lars Anderson , BOS
Chih-Hsien Chiang , BOS
Ryan Kalish , BOS
Yamaico Navarro , BOS
Luis Exposito , BOS
Felix Doubront , BOS
Michael Bowden , BOS
Jose Vinicio , BOS
Oscar Tejeda , BOS
Reymond Fuentes , BOS
Jose Iglesias , BOS
Keury De La Cruz , BOS
Michael Almanzar , BOS
Jay Jackson , CHC
Andrew Cashner , CHC
Casey Coleman , CHC
Welington Castillo , CHC
Darwin Barney , CHC
Marquez Smith , CHC
Craig Muschko , CHC
Hak-Ju Lee , CHC
David Cales , CHC
Mitch Atkins , CHC
James Adduci , CHC
Matthew Cerda , CHC
Arismendy Alcantara , CHC
Brad Snyder , CHC
Dayan Viciedo , CHW
Daniel Hudson , CHW
Brent Morel , CHW
Jordan Danks , CHW
Tyler Flowers , CHW
Stefan Gartrell , CHW
Alejandro de Aza , CHW
Zack Cozart , CIN
Yonder Alonso , CIN
Travis Wood , CIN
Aroldis Chapman , CIN
Juan Francisco , CIN
Todd Frazier , CIN
Matt Klinker , CIN
Wladimir Balentien , CIN
Devin Mesoraco , CIN
Dave Sappelt , CIN
Chris Valaika , CIN
Matt Maloney , CIN
Daniel Dorn , CIN
Henry Rodriguez , CIN
Ronald Torreyes , CIN
Danny Herrera , CIN
Michael Brantley , CLE
Carlos Carrasco , CLE
Lonnie Chisenhall , CLE
Nick Weglarz , CLE
Cord Phelps , CLE
Carlos Santana , CLE
Zach Putnam , CLE
Jason Kipnis , CLE
Alex White , CLE
Jeanmar Gomez , CLE
Luis Valbuena , CLE
Ezequiel Carrera , CLE
Jurickson Profar , CLE
Jared Goedert , CLE
Wes Hodges , CLE
Paolo Espino , CLE
Lou Marson , CLE
Josh Rodriguez , CLE
Josh Judy , CLE
Jose Constanza , CLE
Matt LaPorta , CLE
Vinnie Pestano , CLE
Hector Rondon , CLE
Giovanny Urshela , CLE
Jacob Skole , CLE
Frank Herrmann , CLE
Josh Tomlin , CLE
Wilin Rosario , COL
Jhoulys Chacin , COL
Charles Blackmon , COL
Chris Nelson , COL
Cole Garner , COL
Chaz Roe , COL
Cory Riordan , COL
Dexter Fowler , COL
Esmil Rogers , COL
Nolan Arenado , COL
Matt Reynolds , COL
Mike Paulk , COL
Rick Porcello , DET
Andrew Oliver , DET
Ben Guez , DET
Christopher White , DET
Casper Wells , DET
Andy Dirks , DET
Robbie Weinhardt , DET
Max Scherzer , DET
Alfredo Figaro , DET
Jeff Frazier , DET
Daniel Fields , DET
Avisail Garcia , DET
Francisco Martinez , DET
Logan Morrison , FLA
Alex Sanabia , FLA
Elih Villanueva , FLA
Alex Sanabia , FLA
Tom Koehler , FLA
Cameron Maybin , FLA
Scott Cousins , FLA
Bryan Petersen , FLA
Sean West , FLA
Noah Perio , FLA
Mike Stanton , FLA
Marcell Ozuna , FLA
Matt Dominguez , FLA
Jordan Lyles , HOU
Jordan Lyles , HOU
Koby Clemens , HOU
Jason Castro , HOU
Jay Austin , HOU
Jack Shuck , HOU
Collin DeLome , HOU
Brian Bogusevic , HOU
Enrique Hernandez , HOU
Jiovanni Mier , HOU
Jose Altuve , HOU
Mike Moustakas , KC
Tim Collins , KC
David Lough , KC
Eric Hosmer , KC
Mike Moustakas , KC
Johnny Giavotella , KC
Derrick Robinson , KC
John Lamb , KC
Paulo Orlando , KC
Clint Robinson , KC
Edgar Osuna , KC
Kila Ka'aihue , KC
Blaine Hardy , KC
Louis Coleman , KC
Jordan Parraz , KC
Greg Holland , KC
Eric Hosmer , KC
Alex Gordon , KC
William Myers , KC
Will Smith , KC
William Myers , KC
Hank Conger , LAA
Peter Bourjos , LAA
Mark Trumbo , LAA
Will Smith , LAA
Jeremy Moore , LAA
Alexi Amarista , LAA
Sean O'Sullivan , LAA
Mike Trout , LAA
Amalio Diaz , LAA
Trevor Bell , LAA
Jean Segura , LAA
Mike Trout , LAA
Tyler Skaggs , LAA
Rich Thompson , LAA
Randal Grichuk , LAA
Ivan DeJesus , LAD
Russ Mitchell , LAD
Justin Sellers , LAD
Jamie Hoffmann , LAD
Josh Lindblom , LAD
Xavier Paul , LAD
Zach Braddock , MIL
Mat Gamel , MIL
Brett Lawrie , MIL
Eric Farris , MIL
Mike McClendon , MIL
Ryan Gennett , MIL
Joe Benson , MIN
Ben Revere , MIN
Deolis Guerra , MIN
David Bromberg , MIN
Wilson Ramos , MIN
Kyle Gibson , MIN
Trevor Plouffe , MIN
Kyle Gibson , MIN
Kyle Waldrop , MIN
Dustin Martin , MIN
Alex Burnett , MIN
Brian Dinkelman , MIN
Aaron Hicks , MIN
Eddie Rosario , MIN
Rob Delaney , MIN
Jeff Manship , MIN
Dillon Gee , NYM
Kirk Nieuwenhuis , NYM
Ruben Tejada , NYM
Fernando Martinez , NYM
Lucas Duda , NYM
Josh Stinson , NYM
Josh Thole , NYM
Nick Evans , NYM
Dylan Owen , NYM
Justin Turner , NYM
Manuel Alvarez , NYM
Michael Antonini , NYM
Wilmer Flores , NYM
Jose De La Torre , NYM
Wilmer Flores , NYM
Michael Antonini , NYM
Cesar Puello , NYM
Darrell Ceciliani , NYM
Jesus Montero , NYY
Eduardo Nunez , NYY
Ivan Nova , NYY
Daniel Brewer , NYY
Brandon Laird , NYY
Austin Romine , NYY
David Phelps , NYY
Hector Noesi , NYY
Reegie Corona , NYY
Zach McAllister , NYY
David Phelps , NYY
Greg Golson , NYY
Hector Noesi , NYY
Ramon Flores , NYY
J. R. Murphy , NYY
Chris Carter , OAK
Eric Sogard , OAK
Michael Taylor , OAK
Shane Peterson , OAK
Adrian Cardenas , OAK
Brett Anderson , OAK
Ryan Edell , OAK
Josh Donaldson , OAK
Henry Rodriguez , OAK
Corey Wimberly , OAK
Vin Mazzaro , OAK
Tyson Ross , OAK
Sam Demel , OAK
Travis Banwart , OAK
Ian Krol , OAK
Steven Tolleson , OAK
Rashun Dixon , OAK
Freddy Galvis , PHI
Domonic Brown , PHI
Domonic Brown , PHI
Vance Worley , PHI
Jonathan Singleton , PHI
Anthony Gose , PHI
John Mayberry , PHI
Brian Bocock , PHI
Domingo Santana , PHI
Sebastian Valle , PHI
Julio Rodriguez , PHI
Jonathan Villar , PHI
Brody Colvin , PHI
Jose Tabata , PIT
Josh Harrison , PIT
Chase d'Arnaud , PIT
Rudy Owens , PIT
Justin Wilson , PIT
Pedro Alvarez , PIT
Matt Hague , PIT
Alex Presley , PIT
Neil Walker , PIT
Brian Friday , PIT
Brandon Moss , PIT
Argenis Diaz , PIT
Tony Watson , PIT
Robbie Grossman , PIT
Brad Lincoln , PIT
Quincy Latimore , PIT
Mike Baxter , SD
Simon Castro , SD
Cedric Hunter , SD
Corey Kluber , SD
Cedric Hunter , SD
Luis Durango , SD
Will Inman , SD
Evan Scribner , SD
Jeremy Hefner , SD
Aaron Cunningham , SD
Ernesto Frieri , SD
Ryan Webb , SD
Sean Kazmar , SD
Craig Cooper , SD
Edinson Rincon , SD
Jonathan Galvez , SD
Greg Halman , SEA
Michael Pineda , SEA
Luke French , SEA
Michael Pineda , SEA
Mauricio Robles , SEA
Blake Beavan , SEA
Dylan Unsworth , SEA
Dustin Ackley , SEA
Mike Carp , SEA
Matt Mangini , SEA
Mauricio Robles , SEA
Justin Smoak , SEA
Ezequiel Carrera , SEA
David Winfree , SEA
Brandol Perez , sea
Nick Franklin , SEA
Matt Tuiasosopo , SEA
Johermyn Chavez , SEA
Madison Bumgarner , SF
Thomas Neal , SF
Conor Gillaspie , SF
Brandon Belt , SF
Buster Posey , SF
Brock Bond , SF
Brett Pill , SF
Jesus Guzman , SF
Thomas Joseph , SF
Ben Copeland , SF
Tyler Graham , SF
Nick Noonan , SF
Daniel Descalso , STL
Lance Lynn , STL
Brandon Dickson , STL
Pete Kozma , STL
Eduardo Sanchez , STL
Donovan Solano , STL
Bryan Anderson , STL
Allen Craig , STL
Mark Hamilton , STL
Adam Ottavino , STL
James Rapoport , STL
Jon Jay , STL
Shelby Miller , STL
P.J. Walters , STL
Fernando Salas , STL
Desmond Jennings , TB
Jeremy Hellickson , TB
Jake McGee , TB
Alex Cobb , TB
Jose Pirela , TB
Alexander Torres , TB
Matthew Moore , TB
Aneury Rodriguez , TB
Jake McGee , TB
Elliot Johnson , TB
Ty Morrison , TB
Tim Beckham , TB
Michael Kirkman , TEX
Blake Beavan , TEX
Justin Smoak , TEX
Mitch Moreland , TEX
Chris Davis , TEX
Derek Holland , TEX
Chad Tracy , TEX
Tanner Scheppers , TEX
Robert Erlin , TEX
Gregorio Petit , TEX
Joseph Ortiz , TEX
Engel Beltre , TEX
Pedro Strop , TEX
Hernan Iribarren , TEX
Leury Garcia , TEX
Martin Perez , TEX
Eric Thames , TOR
Darin Mastroianni , TOR
Kyle Drabek , TOR
J. P. Arencibia , TOR
Brett Wallace , TOR
David Cooper , TOR
Tim Collins , TOR
Brad Emaus , TOR
Brett Cecil , TOR
Chris Lubanski , TOR
Jarrett Hoffpauir , TOR
Carlos Perez , TOR
Adeiny Hechavarria , TOR
Gustavo Pierre , TOR
Stephen Strasburg , WSH
Chris Marrero , WSH
Tom Milone , WSH
Danny Espinosa , WSH
Wilson Ramos , WSH
Danny Espinosa , WSH
Shairon Martis , WSH
Jordan Zimmermann , WSH
Eury Perez , WSH
Stephen Lombardozzi , WSH
J.P. Ramirez , WSH
Josh Wilkie , WSH