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Showing posts from January, 2011

When SHOULD your favorite prospects debut in the Majors?

Based on Averages based on the progress of former draft picks, I have created averages on how quickly each player should make it to the majors. It is adjusted based on their potential and their production in the Minor Leagues. It is also based on the position they play and if they were drafted out of high school or college. Here are a few of them:

Jesus Montero , C , NYY 2011
Mike Trout , OF , LAA 2013
Bryce Harper , OF , WSH 2014
Freddie Freeman , 1B , ATL 2012
Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC 2011
Julio Teheran , P , ATL 2012
Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC 2013
Wil Myers , C , KC 2013
Brett Lawrie , 2B , TOR 2013
Lonnie Chisenhall , 3B , CLE 2011
Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA 2012
Jameson Taillon , P , PIT 2014
Matt Moore , P , TB 2011
Domonic Brown , OF , PHI 2010
Manny Machado , SS , BAL 2014
Gary Sanchez , C , NYY 2014
Brett Jackson , OF , CHC 2012
Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB 2011
Jonathan Singleton , 1B , PHI 2014
Matt Dominguez , 3B , FLA 2012
Yorman Rodriguez , OF , CIN 2014
Martin Perez , P , TEX 2…

Top International Signings of 2010

•1. Esteilon Peguero, SS, SEA
Peguero is a long, lean athletic player that is a shortstop currently but will likely move to 3B. He doesn't have a lot of power right now, but I project him to have above average power. His bonus was recently reduced from $2.9 million

to $1.1 million. The Mariners didn't give a reason, but he is still my favorite international player signed this season.

•2. Adeiny Hechevarria, SS, TOR
Hechevarria is a solid defensive SS with an average bat at the position. He won't be a dominant force, but could be a good hitter in time. He is very raw though and it showed in his pro debut batting .266 and slugging .357.

•3. Luis Heredia, P, PIT
Heredia has a really good breaking ball and a mid 90's fastball at his best. He throws 4 pitches and he could fight Taillon and Allie for the top pitcher in the Pirates rotation.

•4. Carlos Matias, P, STL
Matias ate DSL hitters alive with his upper 90's fastball. The K/BB rate is exciting for a guy who can get…

The Future of the Kansas City Royals

Projected Stats that a player could attain in their career if they continue with their current skill level and the % likelihood of making it to the majors:
C Wil Myers - .209/.263/.364 - 22.50%
1B Eric Hosmer - .294/.338/.624 - 53.54%
2B Christian Colon - .228/.240/.309 - 28.15%
3B Mike Moustakas - .308/.339/.630 - 54.05%
SS Alcides Escobar - .221/.263/.348 - 117.90%
LF Derrick Robinson - .247/.283/.348 - 56.95%
CF Lorenzo Cain - .235/.259/.355 - 71.08%
RF Brett Eibner - No Stats - 3.44%
DH Billy Butler - .287/.340/.454 - 120.05%

Projected best season for these players:
C Wil Myers - .261/.328/.455
1B Eric Hosmer - .366/.421/.777
2B Christian Colon - .247/.260/.335
3B Mike Moustakas - .387/.427/.792
SS Alcides Escobar - .261/.310/.410
LF Derrick Robinson - .327/.375/.460
CF Lorenzo Cain - .276/.304/.417
RF Brett Eibner - No Stats
DH Billy Butler - .345/.408/.545

My new projection system

I've have spent hundreds of hours trying to get this projection system to work. I think I finally have a usable system that I can be proud of. Using nothing more than a stat line, I run it thru a system that places into a ranking. The next step is to age adjust these ratings using historical information to approximate what players should do. The lower the player is in the majors, the worse he is likely to do, but some players project well, even from low a and rookie ball. I have created a percentage that is a realistic approximation of how likely a player is to be a major leaguer. It isn't based on if he was actually called up for a cup of coffee, it just shows how likely he is to be promoted. If a player is over 80% it is likely he will get a shot. Over 100% means he could make a solid impact. I have this percentage for both hitters and pitchers.
I don't have a good automated projection system for pitchers yet and I think that will take more time, but I'm going to wo…

A new projection system, I think?

A week or so ago, I took a look at some of my projections from last season. Some were close, others weren't close at all. So I decided to take a look at my formulas. My hitter projections last year were completely numbers based on what I learned players typically do from year to year. Many of these players are not typical though. I have to do more.
What I ended up doing is amending what I had by adjusting for each players age to see how much improvement he should have compared to his league. I created a new set of adjustments. I averaged the formulas I use for each league to create a formula for each level. This isn't the most accurate thing, but I'm essentially trying to create a crystal ball so 100% accuracy is unattainable and pointless to even attempt.
Over the last few days, I have spent dozens of hours trying to make this work, and honestly, I think my brain is a litte fried, but I think I have something.
What I have is essentially a stat line of what a player can b…