Monday, January 31, 2011

When SHOULD your favorite prospects debut in the Majors?

Based on Averages based on the progress of former draft picks, I have created averages on how quickly each player should make it to the majors. It is adjusted based on their potential and their production in the Minor Leagues. It is also based on the position they play and if they were drafted out of high school or college. Here are a few of them:

Jesus Montero , C , NYY 2011
Mike Trout , OF , LAA 2013
Bryce Harper , OF , WSH 2014
Freddie Freeman , 1B , ATL 2012
Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC 2011
Julio Teheran , P , ATL 2012
Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC 2013
Wil Myers , C , KC 2013
Brett Lawrie , 2B , TOR 2013
Lonnie Chisenhall , 3B , CLE 2011
Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA 2012
Jameson Taillon , P , PIT 2014
Matt Moore , P , TB 2011
Domonic Brown , OF , PHI 2010
Manny Machado , SS , BAL 2014
Gary Sanchez , C , NYY 2014
Brett Jackson , OF , CHC 2012
Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB 2011
Jonathan Singleton , 1B , PHI 2014
Matt Dominguez , 3B , FLA 2012
Yorman Rodriguez , OF , CIN 2014
Martin Perez , P , TEX 2012
Miguel Sano , SS , MIN 2014
Jarrod Parker , P , ARI 2011
Stetson Allie , P , PIT 2014
Nick Franklin , SS , SEA 2014
Desmond Jennings , OF , TB 2009
Fernando Martinez , OF , NYM 2011
Randall Delgado , P , ATL 2012
Shelby Miller , P , STL 2013
Manny Banuelos , P , NYY 2013
Hank Conger , C , LAA 2011
Nick Castellanos , 3B , DET 2015
Jacob Turner , P , DET 2013
Anthony Ranaudo , P , BOS 2013
Nolan Arenado , 3B , COL 2014
John Lamb , P , KC 2012
Matt Davidson , 3B , ARI 2014
Aaron Hicks , OF , MIN 2013
Bobby Borchering , 3B , ARI 2014
Carlos Perez , C , TOR 2014
Dayan Viciedo , 3B , CHW 2014
Jordan Lyles , P , HOU 2013
Chris Carter , 1B , OAK 2009
Mike Minor , P , ATL 2012
Tyler Matzek , P , COL 2013

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Top International Signings of 2010

•1. Esteilon Peguero, SS, SEA
Peguero is a long, lean athletic player that is a shortstop currently but will likely move to 3B. He doesn't have a lot of power right now, but I project him to have above average power. His bonus was recently reduced from $2.9 million

to $1.1 million. The Mariners didn't give a reason, but he is still my favorite international player signed this season.

•2. Adeiny Hechevarria, SS, TOR
Hechevarria is a solid defensive SS with an average bat at the position. He won't be a dominant force, but could be a good hitter in time. He is very raw though and it showed in his pro debut batting .266 and slugging .357.

•3. Luis Heredia, P, PIT
Heredia has a really good breaking ball and a mid 90's fastball at his best. He throws 4 pitches and he could fight Taillon and Allie for the top pitcher in the Pirates rotation.

•4. Carlos Matias, P, STL
Matias ate DSL hitters alive with his upper 90's fastball. The K/BB rate is exciting for a guy who can get close to 100 MPH. He's far from a likely success, but a great fastball like that can't be taught and can allow a pitcher to succeed much more readily. He could be the best pitcher out of this group.

•5. Renato Nunez, 3B, OAK
Nunez is 6'1" and about 175 lbs but he can really hit. He has plus power potential and a nice swing that should generate enough offense to play any corner position. He is a 3B now and has a decent chance of staying there.

•6. Adonis Cardona, P, TOR
Cardona is a lanky righty who can reach 93 and sits in the low 90's. He is very raw mechanically and will need time to refine his command and develop secondary pitches. His curveball flashes plus potential but other times is below average. He reminds me a little of Mets 10th rounder from this year, Akeel Morris, who signed for $120,000.

•7. Joel Araujo, OF, TB
Araujo may be the most likely OF to stick in CF out of this class, even if his arm is a little weak. He has a powerful swing and should develop 15 HR power and should be able to steal 20-30 bags with his plus speed. He is one of the more polished players to come out of the D.R. this season.

•8. Phillips Castillo, OF, SEA
When you see Castillo, you have to dream. His frame could allow him to be a truly massive human being. He's 6'3 and about 185 LBS and could grow to be 6'6" and 225 without too much imagination. He is an average runner now and could end up below average. He is a RF and he has the arm to play there. He needs a lot of work in the outfield, though. At the plate, he has a hitch in his swing at the start but he has good bat speed and generates plus power which could increase as he gains strength. He could be the best hitter in this years' class.

•9. Roughned Odor, SS, TEX
Odor has an easy swing and looks like he should hit very well early on and could be one of the quickest to advance to full season ball. His defense is good but his arm looks below average for shortstop. I would love to see his range and quickness at 2B where he could really be impressive.

•10. Vicmal De La Cruz, OF, OAK
Vicmal is a small lefty with a short, quick, level swing that is ideal for a line drive hitter. I am confused when I look at him because I can't see him getting a lot bigger or stronger unless he grows a few inches. He has very good speed and should be able to play centerfield. His arm is average, maybe a touch above for centerfield.

•11. Danry Vazquez, OF, DET
Vazquez is another projectable OF. He has a nice line drive swing and should develop power as he gains strength. His arm is solid and should be able to play RF. He doesn't have the speed to stick in CF, though. My gut tells me to watch this guy closely.

•12. Wagner Mateo, OF, ARI
Mateo originally signed in 2009 with the Cardinals for $3.1 million but his contract was voided after failing the physical, apparently due to vision impairment. He ended up signing with Arizona for a huge discount at $512,000. He had an adequate season in the Dominican Summer League hitting .257 with a .401 slugging percentage. He did have contact issues and was rawer than I originally thought. He is still worth watching because he is an exceptional athlete.

•13. Ariel Ovando, OF, HOU
Ovando is a long, lean player with a setup and swing that no one would teach a young hitter. He waggles the bat and has a long swing that generates a lot of power but creates big holes for good pitchers to take advantage of. Adjusting this will be crucial to his success. His bat is his ticket to wherever he goes, as he's not a great defender or speedy player.

•14. Jorge Padron, OF, BOS
Padron doesn't have the ceiling of many of the players on this list, but is likely to at least be a 4th OF'er at the big league level. His average and power were not great this season in the Eastern league but he should improve this year, which will be his age 24 season.

•15. Gabriel Cenas, 3B, TOR
Cenas is a power hitting 3B that will keep growing into his power but is just scratching the surface now. He's not overly athletic and may have to move off of 3B but his bat is his calling card.

•16. Jin Yeong Kim, RHP, CHC
Kim signed for $1.2 million in March and can throw up to 92. I don't know a lot else about this Korean pitcher but the amount the Cubs spent makes me take notice.

•17. Christopher Tamarez, SS, NYY
Tamarez is a glove first SS that could grow into an average offensive shortstop. He had a good Dominican Prospect League season as well.

•18. Javier Pimentel, SS, MIN
Pimentel is along the lines of Minnesota's signing last season of Jorge Polanco. They are both athletic, glove first shortstops who are likely to stick there but don't have much offensive upside.

•19. Jose Torres, P, SEA
Torres is a rare signing out of Colombia and Seattle paid him $851,000. He won't blow you away with velocity, as he throws mostly upper 80's. He is very raw but could improve a lot as he gains strength and gets better coaching.

•20. Hector Veloz, 3B, BAL
The Veloz signing confuses me. He has potential with the bat and is a decent 3B, but paying $300,000 for a kid who already tested positive for anabolic steroids shocks me. I think he could really a good hitter but I don't know what kind of player he'll be after he is off steroids.

Draft Analysis: A Graphical Interpretation

Check it out here. Yes, I am too lazy to upload the pictures again.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

The Future of the Kansas City Royals

Projected Stats that a player could attain in their career if they continue with their current skill level and the % likelihood of making it to the majors:
C Wil Myers - .209/.263/.364 - 22.50%
1B Eric Hosmer - .294/.338/.624 - 53.54%
2B Christian Colon - .228/.240/.309 - 28.15%
3B Mike Moustakas - .308/.339/.630 - 54.05%
SS Alcides Escobar - .221/.263/.348 - 117.90%
LF Derrick Robinson - .247/.283/.348 - 56.95%
CF Lorenzo Cain - .235/.259/.355 - 71.08%
RF Brett Eibner - No Stats - 3.44%
DH Billy Butler - .287/.340/.454 - 120.05%

Projected best season for these players:
C Wil Myers - .261/.328/.455
1B Eric Hosmer - .366/.421/.777
2B Christian Colon - .247/.260/.335
3B Mike Moustakas - .387/.427/.792
SS Alcides Escobar - .261/.310/.410
LF Derrick Robinson - .327/.375/.460
CF Lorenzo Cain - .276/.304/.417
RF Brett Eibner - No Stats
DH Billy Butler - .345/.408/.545

My new projection system

I've have spent hundreds of hours trying to get this projection system to work. I think I finally have a usable system that I can be proud of. Using nothing more than a stat line, I run it thru a system that places into a ranking. The next step is to age adjust these ratings using historical information to approximate what players should do. The lower the player is in the majors, the worse he is likely to do, but some players project well, even from low a and rookie ball. I have created a percentage that is a realistic approximation of how likely a player is to be a major leaguer. It isn't based on if he was actually called up for a cup of coffee, it just shows how likely he is to be promoted. If a player is over 80% it is likely he will get a shot. Over 100% means he could make a solid impact. I have this percentage for both hitters and pitchers.
I don't have a good automated projection system for pitchers yet and I think that will take more time, but I'm going to work on it.
As for hitters, I have created a system that predicts what a player could do in the majors right now. It isn't a full stat line, I just created a BA/OBP/SLG slash line for each player. I have this for players from DSL all the way up to the majors. I haven't done a ton of work to verify the accuracy. With the players I have looked at, the best season a player has in his minor league career, typically his AA or AAA season, correlates fairly well to his future career average slash line.
The two slash lines I created for each minor league player are what a player could likely do in the majors currently and what his future output could be.
For major leaguers it is likely the worst they will do and the best they will do.
I will post some of this info on the blog, maybe projecting the future lineup for the Royals, since they are so stacked.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

A new projection system, I think?

A week or so ago, I took a look at some of my projections from last season. Some were close, others weren't close at all. So I decided to take a look at my formulas. My hitter projections last year were completely numbers based on what I learned players typically do from year to year. Many of these players are not typical though. I have to do more.
What I ended up doing is amending what I had by adjusting for each players age to see how much improvement he should have compared to his league. I created a new set of adjustments. I averaged the formulas I use for each league to create a formula for each level. This isn't the most accurate thing, but I'm essentially trying to create a crystal ball so 100% accuracy is unattainable and pointless to even attempt.
Over the last few days, I have spent dozens of hours trying to make this work, and honestly, I think my brain is a litte fried, but I think I have something.
What I have is essentially a stat line of what a player can be reasonably expected to do in the majors. I still have to look more deeply at the results, as I just finished this morning at about 3:30 AM. I had a busy day, so I haven't looked at it yet. I will probably take a look here yet tonight and make some of the info available tomorrow or the next day, if it makes sense. I'm posting this now, before analysis, because I am excited about it and quite proud as well.
I hope it's as interesting as I think it is.