Thursday, November 24, 2011

Houston Astros Shadow System Update

The Houston Astros were just purchased by Jim Crane. After a lot of controversy, he was approved by the other owners. The deal came with a condition. He has to move his Astros to the A.L. West.

Most of the reason for MLB wanting to move the Astros to the A.L. is that the Houston market is quite large. It will bring more eyeballs to the teams in the A.L. West and it potentially can grow the popularity of A.L. West teams. All the more reason to put a winning team on the field.

As you guys probably know, I have been doing a shadow draft for the Astros the last two years and some have questioned the amount I would spend on the draft. I know this may seem unrealistic but the plan is to build a team from the bottom up instead of spending large sums on free agents. The Astros had $7 million dollars in operating income in 2010 and $14 million in 2011. If I spent $27 million on the in 2010 and $26 million this year to sign all the talent, the team would have had losses of $9 million and $7 million. That means I owe my owner $37 million dollars, or about 7.5 Wins Above Replacement. The only other teams that operated at a loss were the Red Sox, Mets and Tigers, who lost $29 million dollars. They have lost $54 million dollars over the last 3 seasons. I plan on spending a ton on the draft again this season but in the long run, it will pay off. While I have no proof at the major league level, the farm system is really shaping up at the lower levels.

The major league team is horrible but that isn't different than the real team. It is looking like the team is on pace for a top 5 pick again in 2013 as well as the 1st pick in 2012. This will continue to add depth to the farm system. I've spent a little time looking at how all this talent would fit together, and it is a little tight in the low minors to get everyone playing time but I'm sure it would work it's way out.

In the majors, Carlos Lee, Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez could be moved for more talent and free up salary. Jose Altuve, J.D. Martinez, Jordan Lyles, Bud Norris, Brett Wallace and a couple others could be worth keeping around for when the team starts turning around.

In 3A, Brett Oberholtzer, Ross Seaton and Juan Abreu could be helpful. There could be some bullpen help there as well.

In AA is where the talent really starts kicking up. A rotation of Sonny Gray, Jarred Cosart, Chris Hernandez, Josh Osich and Kyle Winkler starts it off. Michael Palazzone and Josh Zeid could help out of the pen. Jonathan Singleton at 1B, Jio Mier at SS, and Jay Austin and T.J. Steele in the outfield. A few of these guys could start helping as soon as this season.

In High A, Curt Casali behind the dish, Florida standout Preston Tucker at 1B, Nick Castellanos at 3B, Jonathan Villar at short and Stanford star Austin Wilson and Domingo Santana in the outfield makes a pretty impressive lineup. A.J. Cole, LSU ace Kevin Gausman, Tanner Bushue,Georgia Tech righty DeAndre Smelter and Stanford lefty Brett Mooneyham would be the rotation. Michael Ojala, Dean Kiekhefer and Brad Dydalewicz out of the pen would help close out games.

Low A has quite a few talented players. As do the short season leagues. A lot of them are still in college but a few are playing pro ball. Next year this will mean more but the talent is really piling up in the lower levels. Here is where we sit. 


AA


High A


Corpus Christi


Lancaster


C


Federico Hernandez


C


Curtis Casali


1B


Jonathan Singleton


1B


Preston Tucker


2B


Jason Smith


2B


Tyler Rahmatulla


3B


Jonathan Meyer


3B


Nick Castellanos


SS


Jiovanni Mier


SS


Jonathan Villar


LF


T.J. Steele


LF


Joseph Loftus


CF


Jay Austin


CF


Domingo Santana


RF


Jon Gaston


RF


Austin Wilson


1


Sonny Gray


1


A.J. Cole


2


Jarred Cosart


2


Kevin Gausman


3


Chris Hernandez


3


Tanner Bushue


4


Joshua Osich


4


DeAndre Smelter


5


Kyle Winkler


5


Brett Mooneyham

 

 


Low A


Short Season


Lexington


Tri-City


C


Matt Rice


C


Matthew Roberts


1B


Brian Ragira


1B


Zac Elgie


2B


Martin Peguero


2B


Luca Martone


3B


Garin Cecchini


3B


Chan Moon


SS


Jacoby Jones


SS


Lonnie Kauppila


LF


Eric Arce


LF


Trey Griffin


CF


Joshua Sale


CF


Dale Carey


RF


Kris Bryant


RF


Krey Bratsen


1


Stetson Allie


1


Jose Perdomo


2


Drew Cisco


2


Euris Quezada


3


Ethan Stewart


3


Garrett Bullock


4


Michael Feliz


4


Joan Belliard


5


Evan Rutckyj


5


Danilo Del Rio

 

 


Rookie


Rookie


Greenville


GCL


C


Andrew Murray


C


Brandon Sedell


1B


Jared Lakind


1B


Roderick Shoulders


2B


Joshua Tobias


2B


Chase Williamson


3B


Matthew Dean


3B


Austin Slater


SS


Phillip Evans


SS


Jean Carlos Batista


LF


Jake Cave


LF


Kelvin Vizcaino


CF


Derek Fisher


CF


Danry Vasquez


RF


Vicmal De La Cruz


RF


Dominic Jose


1


Daniel Norris


1


Amir Garrett


2


Carson Baranik


2


Jose Montero


3


Dillon Maples


3


Spenser Linney


4


Nick Burdi


4


Blake Burrell


5


Phillip Pfeifer


5


Ricardo Jacquez

 Other Players:


Bench


Bench


Julio Martinez


Kelly Norris-Jones


Albert  Cartwright


Kevin Jordan


Kash Kalkowski


Yonathan Mejia


Geno Escalante


Christopher Triplett


Jacob Goebbert


Ben Orloff


Erik Castro


Breshon Kimbell


Enrique Hernandez


Christopher Lovett


Tyler Hanover


Shon Carson


Brandon Barnes


Mark Payton


Telvin Nash


Yoel Araujo


Adrian Morales


Khiry  Cooper


Johnny Coy


Ronald Sanchez


Darwin Rivera


Grayson Greiner


Drake Roberts


Kirby Bellow


Willie Argo


Jay Baum


Garen Wright


Max Homick


Jose Monzon


Dylan Davis


Zachary Alvord


Drew Stiles


Jose Fernandez


Rouric Bridgewater


Kevin Patterson


Kyle Robinson

 

Pitchers Pitchers

Michael Palazzone


Austin Urban


Josh Zeid


Dakota Freese


David Berner


Kilby Pena


Arcenio Leon


Dan Mengden


Matt Nevarez


Pat Connaughton


Daniel Renken


Jose Trinidad


Zachary Grimmett


Kirk Clark


Pat Urckfitz


Jorge De Leon


Michael Ojala


Danny Barnes


Dean Kiekhefer


Cody Martin


Brad Dydalewicz


Carlos Quevedo


Colton Pitkin


Enderson Franco


Jonathon Crawford


Francis Ramirez


Rolando Botello


Luis Ordosgoitti


Rudy Acosta


Ricardo Batista


Thomas Pecoraro


Clayton Crum


Trae Davis


Daniel Child


Trevor Teykl


Agapito Barrios


Shane Wolf


Ambiorix De Leon


Forrest Snow


Alberto Arias


Jose Cisnero


Ashton Mowdy


Robert Donovan


Billy Sadler


Alex Sogard


Brad James


Casey Upperman


Brandt Walker


Kyle Greenwalt


Brian Wabick


Andrew Smith


David Duncan


Kyle Necke


Elias De Leon


B.J. Hyatt


Francisco Baso


Brett Bruening


Gary Majewski


Chris Hicks


Leandro Cespedes


Seth Maness


Leonardo Alayon


David Martinez


Mike Schurz


Juan Minaya


Nathan Pettus


Murilo Gouvea


Rochi Gutierrez


Ruben Alaniz


Roliner Iturralde


Mark Jones


Alex Schmarzo


Pedro Gomez


Yuri Perez

 DSL Players:


DSL


Yairo Munoz


Iosif Bernal


Mitchel Martes


Luis Reynoso


Arturo Michelena


Adalberto Mondesi


                Luis Enrique Acosta


Manuel Marcos


Helsin Martinez


Alexander Martinez


Javier Saucedo


Edgar Ferreira


Jandel Gustave


Johan Arias


Richard Rodriguez


Harold Arauz


Reymin Guduan


Mauricio Silva

 

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