Sunday, November 27, 2011

Breaking down the Top 2000

My Top 2000 is now posted here.

I used the same formula for 2004 and 2005 and ended up with very similar results. These are the results from the top 2000 for 2004 using the same formula as I currently use. The only difference is, the 2004 list doesn't exclude players exceeding 130 AB/50 IP for that year but does include draft picks. That will water down the numbers some. The results are pretty compelling to me. They were actually better than I expected.

It is still very hard to isolate players below AA but this is what I have for now.

Looking at these numbers can help approximate what to expect from my top 2000 for this season.

96% OF TOP 100 BECOME MLB PLAYERS AVERAGING 5.62 YRS OF MLB SERVICE
86% OF TOP 200 BECOME MLB PLAYERS
79% OF TOP 300 BECOME MLB PLAYERS
73% OF TOP 500 BECOME MLB PLAYERS AVERAGING 3.57 YEARS OF MLB SERVICE
62% OF TOP 1000 BECOME MLB PLAYERS AVERAGING 2.8 YEARS OF SERVICE
49% OF TOP 2000 BECOME MLB PLAYERS AVERAGING 2.1 YEARS OF MLB SERVICE

94% OF A GRADE BECOME MLB PLAYERS
81% OF A- GRADE BECOME MLB PLAYERS
76% OF B+ GRADE BECOME MLB PLAYERS
68% OF B GRADE BECOME MLB PLAYERS
77% OF B- GRADE BECOME MLB PLAYERS
61 % OF C+ GRADE BECOME MLB PLAYERS
51% OF C GRADE BECOME MLB PLAYERS
47 % OF D+ GRADE BECOME MLB PLAYERS
47% OF D GRADE BECOME MLB PLAYERS

84% GRADED B- OR BETTER AT HIGH A BECOME MLB PLAYERS
63% GRADED B- OR BETTER AT LOW A BECOME MLB PLAYERS

I am planning on looking at specific tools to see if they are better indicators than this number, but I doubt it since they are all factored in here based on the weight that was determined with other studies. They may be useful to decide which players to choose over others based on personal preference though.

6 comments:

  1. Many of the players you've listed have exceeded their eligibility (130 AB, 50 IP). These are just the ones in the top 150:

    - Fernando Martinez
    - T Chatwood
    - M Minor
    - A Cobb
    - B Beavan
    - D Duffy
    - J Sands
    - A White
    - J Shuck

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  2. I cross referenced baseball references career numbers, but the names don't always match. Mike/Michael, Alex/Alexander, Danny/Dan/Daniel, etc.

    I posted it early this year and there are some errors in teams and stats. If nothing else, it shows you where, statistically, a player would rank with the season they had.

    I'm not a fan of seperating a player just because they have more than 130 AB's or 50 IP.

    I plan on changing the way I do things here and looking more at players age than a players MLB status.

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  3. Matt,

    Know anything more on a kid in Marietta GA by the name of Adam Loewer, P,CF 2012. Selected to Under Armour Pre-season team and did great but then heard nothing more? I think he is playing for East Cobb again under the head coach Chris Butler, former pitcher with NY Mets

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  4. Loewer is a good player but not a high level prospect.

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  5. Perfect Game has him ranked at 285th for unsigned prospects. What does this kid need to do to become a top prospect for everybody ? He's on my radar

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  6. Gain 6 MPH on the mound or cut off .6 of a second in the 60, cut off .2 in pop time with a shorter arm stroke. Hitting mechanics could be improved. Don't get me wrong, he's a good player, just not a top caliber prospect. Could be a good college player and get a shot in pro ball.

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