Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Future Major Leaguers

Based on about 65000 statistical lines of minor league data, this list projects a 77% accuracy of predicting future Major Leaguers. This is far and away the best I've done, error wise. Here is the list of 2010 minor league stat lines that project future Major Leaguers. The probabailty of AAA players on this list is 85% at worst and the worst probability is Rookie Ball and Short Season players on this list, and that probability is stil 50%.

This is a 100% statistical analysis. None of my own opinion or any other subjective information is included. Just a standard stat line manipulated by the formulas I created.

Here it is sorted by team:
Brandon Allen , ARI
Barry Enright , ARI
Bryan Augenstein , ARI
Mark Hallberg , ARI
Pedro Ciriaco , ARI
Kable Hogben , ARI
Matthew Davidson , ARI
Bobby Borchering , ARI
Cole Gillespie , ARI
Freddie Freeman , ATL
Brandon Beachy , ATL
Craig Kimbrel , ATL
Todd Redmond , ATL
Mike Minor , ATL
Brandon Beachy , ATL
Randall Delgado , ATL
Mike Minor , ATL
Jose Ortegano , ATL
Scott Diamond , ATL
Julio Teheran , ATL
Cory Gearrin , ATL
Matt Young , ATL
Arodys Vizcaino , ATL
Brett Oberholtzer , ATL
Michael Dunn , ATL
Christian Bethancourt , ATL
Matt Lipka , ATL
Julio Teheran , ATL
Chris Tillman , BAL
Zachary Britton , BAL
Tyler Henson , BAL
Josh Bell , BAL
Brandon Erbe , BAL
Brandon Snyder , BAL
Matt Angle , BAL
Jake Arrieta , BAL
Robert Andino , BAL
Troy Patton , BAL
Xavier Avery , BAL
Nolan Reimold , BAL
Xavier Avery , BAL
Josh Reddick , BOS
Anthony Rizzo , BOS
Che-Hsuan Lin , BOS
Yamaico Navarro , BOS
Ryan Kalish , BOS
Nate Spears , BOS
Lars Anderson , BOS
Chih-Hsien Chiang , BOS
Ryan Kalish , BOS
Yamaico Navarro , BOS
Luis Exposito , BOS
Felix Doubront , BOS
Michael Bowden , BOS
Jose Vinicio , BOS
Oscar Tejeda , BOS
Reymond Fuentes , BOS
Jose Iglesias , BOS
Keury De La Cruz , BOS
Michael Almanzar , BOS
Jay Jackson , CHC
Andrew Cashner , CHC
Casey Coleman , CHC
Welington Castillo , CHC
Darwin Barney , CHC
Marquez Smith , CHC
Craig Muschko , CHC
Hak-Ju Lee , CHC
David Cales , CHC
Mitch Atkins , CHC
James Adduci , CHC
Matthew Cerda , CHC
Arismendy Alcantara , CHC
Brad Snyder , CHC
Dayan Viciedo , CHW
Daniel Hudson , CHW
Brent Morel , CHW
Jordan Danks , CHW
Tyler Flowers , CHW
Stefan Gartrell , CHW
Alejandro de Aza , CHW
Zack Cozart , CIN
Yonder Alonso , CIN
Travis Wood , CIN
Aroldis Chapman , CIN
Juan Francisco , CIN
Todd Frazier , CIN
Matt Klinker , CIN
Wladimir Balentien , CIN
Devin Mesoraco , CIN
Dave Sappelt , CIN
Chris Valaika , CIN
Matt Maloney , CIN
Daniel Dorn , CIN
Henry Rodriguez , CIN
Ronald Torreyes , CIN
Danny Herrera , CIN
Michael Brantley , CLE
Carlos Carrasco , CLE
Lonnie Chisenhall , CLE
Nick Weglarz , CLE
Cord Phelps , CLE
Carlos Santana , CLE
Zach Putnam , CLE
Jason Kipnis , CLE
Alex White , CLE
Jeanmar Gomez , CLE
Luis Valbuena , CLE
Ezequiel Carrera , CLE
Jurickson Profar , CLE
Jared Goedert , CLE
Wes Hodges , CLE
Paolo Espino , CLE
Lou Marson , CLE
Josh Rodriguez , CLE
Josh Judy , CLE
Jose Constanza , CLE
Matt LaPorta , CLE
Vinnie Pestano , CLE
Hector Rondon , CLE
Giovanny Urshela , CLE
Jacob Skole , CLE
Frank Herrmann , CLE
Josh Tomlin , CLE
Wilin Rosario , COL
Jhoulys Chacin , COL
Charles Blackmon , COL
Chris Nelson , COL
Cole Garner , COL
Chaz Roe , COL
Cory Riordan , COL
Dexter Fowler , COL
Esmil Rogers , COL
Nolan Arenado , COL
Matt Reynolds , COL
Mike Paulk , COL
Rick Porcello , DET
Andrew Oliver , DET
Ben Guez , DET
Christopher White , DET
Casper Wells , DET
Andy Dirks , DET
Robbie Weinhardt , DET
Max Scherzer , DET
Alfredo Figaro , DET
Jeff Frazier , DET
Daniel Fields , DET
Avisail Garcia , DET
Francisco Martinez , DET
Logan Morrison , FLA
Alex Sanabia , FLA
Elih Villanueva , FLA
Alex Sanabia , FLA
Tom Koehler , FLA
Cameron Maybin , FLA
Scott Cousins , FLA
Bryan Petersen , FLA
Sean West , FLA
Noah Perio , FLA
Mike Stanton , FLA
Marcell Ozuna , FLA
Matt Dominguez , FLA
Jordan Lyles , HOU
Jordan Lyles , HOU
Koby Clemens , HOU
Jason Castro , HOU
Jay Austin , HOU
Jack Shuck , HOU
Collin DeLome , HOU
Brian Bogusevic , HOU
Enrique Hernandez , HOU
Jiovanni Mier , HOU
Jose Altuve , HOU
Mike Moustakas , KC
Tim Collins , KC
David Lough , KC
Eric Hosmer , KC
Mike Moustakas , KC
Johnny Giavotella , KC
Derrick Robinson , KC
John Lamb , KC
Paulo Orlando , KC
Clint Robinson , KC
Edgar Osuna , KC
Kila Ka'aihue , KC
Blaine Hardy , KC
Louis Coleman , KC
Jordan Parraz , KC
Greg Holland , KC
Eric Hosmer , KC
Alex Gordon , KC
William Myers , KC
Will Smith , KC
William Myers , KC
Hank Conger , LAA
Peter Bourjos , LAA
Mark Trumbo , LAA
Will Smith , LAA
Jeremy Moore , LAA
Alexi Amarista , LAA
Sean O'Sullivan , LAA
Mike Trout , LAA
Amalio Diaz , LAA
Trevor Bell , LAA
Jean Segura , LAA
Mike Trout , LAA
Tyler Skaggs , LAA
Rich Thompson , LAA
Randal Grichuk , LAA
Ivan DeJesus , LAD
Russ Mitchell , LAD
Justin Sellers , LAD
Jamie Hoffmann , LAD
Josh Lindblom , LAD
Xavier Paul , LAD
Zach Braddock , MIL
Mat Gamel , MIL
Brett Lawrie , MIL
Eric Farris , MIL
Mike McClendon , MIL
Ryan Gennett , MIL
Joe Benson , MIN
Ben Revere , MIN
Deolis Guerra , MIN
David Bromberg , MIN
Wilson Ramos , MIN
Kyle Gibson , MIN
Trevor Plouffe , MIN
Kyle Gibson , MIN
Kyle Waldrop , MIN
Dustin Martin , MIN
Alex Burnett , MIN
Brian Dinkelman , MIN
Aaron Hicks , MIN
Eddie Rosario , MIN
Rob Delaney , MIN
Jeff Manship , MIN
Dillon Gee , NYM
Kirk Nieuwenhuis , NYM
Ruben Tejada , NYM
Fernando Martinez , NYM
Lucas Duda , NYM
Josh Stinson , NYM
Josh Thole , NYM
Nick Evans , NYM
Dylan Owen , NYM
Justin Turner , NYM
Manuel Alvarez , NYM
Michael Antonini , NYM
Wilmer Flores , NYM
Jose De La Torre , NYM
Wilmer Flores , NYM
Michael Antonini , NYM
Cesar Puello , NYM
Darrell Ceciliani , NYM
Jesus Montero , NYY
Eduardo Nunez , NYY
Ivan Nova , NYY
Daniel Brewer , NYY
Brandon Laird , NYY
Austin Romine , NYY
David Phelps , NYY
Hector Noesi , NYY
Reegie Corona , NYY
Zach McAllister , NYY
David Phelps , NYY
Greg Golson , NYY
Hector Noesi , NYY
Ramon Flores , NYY
J. R. Murphy , NYY
Chris Carter , OAK
Eric Sogard , OAK
Michael Taylor , OAK
Shane Peterson , OAK
Adrian Cardenas , OAK
Brett Anderson , OAK
Ryan Edell , OAK
Josh Donaldson , OAK
Henry Rodriguez , OAK
Corey Wimberly , OAK
Vin Mazzaro , OAK
Tyson Ross , OAK
Sam Demel , OAK
Travis Banwart , OAK
Ian Krol , OAK
Steven Tolleson , OAK
Rashun Dixon , OAK
Freddy Galvis , PHI
Domonic Brown , PHI
Domonic Brown , PHI
Vance Worley , PHI
Jonathan Singleton , PHI
Anthony Gose , PHI
John Mayberry , PHI
Brian Bocock , PHI
Domingo Santana , PHI
Sebastian Valle , PHI
Julio Rodriguez , PHI
Jonathan Villar , PHI
Brody Colvin , PHI
Jose Tabata , PIT
Josh Harrison , PIT
Chase d'Arnaud , PIT
Rudy Owens , PIT
Justin Wilson , PIT
Pedro Alvarez , PIT
Matt Hague , PIT
Alex Presley , PIT
Neil Walker , PIT
Brian Friday , PIT
Brandon Moss , PIT
Argenis Diaz , PIT
Tony Watson , PIT
Robbie Grossman , PIT
Brad Lincoln , PIT
Quincy Latimore , PIT
Mike Baxter , SD
Simon Castro , SD
Cedric Hunter , SD
Corey Kluber , SD
Cedric Hunter , SD
Luis Durango , SD
Will Inman , SD
Evan Scribner , SD
Jeremy Hefner , SD
Aaron Cunningham , SD
Ernesto Frieri , SD
Ryan Webb , SD
Sean Kazmar , SD
Craig Cooper , SD
Edinson Rincon , SD
Jonathan Galvez , SD
Greg Halman , SEA
Michael Pineda , SEA
Luke French , SEA
Michael Pineda , SEA
Mauricio Robles , SEA
Blake Beavan , SEA
Dylan Unsworth , SEA
Dustin Ackley , SEA
Mike Carp , SEA
Matt Mangini , SEA
Mauricio Robles , SEA
Justin Smoak , SEA
Ezequiel Carrera , SEA
David Winfree , SEA
Brandol Perez , sea
Nick Franklin , SEA
Matt Tuiasosopo , SEA
Johermyn Chavez , SEA
Madison Bumgarner , SF
Thomas Neal , SF
Conor Gillaspie , SF
Brandon Belt , SF
Buster Posey , SF
Brock Bond , SF
Brett Pill , SF
Jesus Guzman , SF
Thomas Joseph , SF
Ben Copeland , SF
Tyler Graham , SF
Nick Noonan , SF
Daniel Descalso , STL
Lance Lynn , STL
Brandon Dickson , STL
Pete Kozma , STL
Eduardo Sanchez , STL
Donovan Solano , STL
Bryan Anderson , STL
Allen Craig , STL
Mark Hamilton , STL
Adam Ottavino , STL
James Rapoport , STL
Jon Jay , STL
Shelby Miller , STL
P.J. Walters , STL
Fernando Salas , STL
Desmond Jennings , TB
Jeremy Hellickson , TB
Jake McGee , TB
Alex Cobb , TB
Jose Pirela , TB
Alexander Torres , TB
Matthew Moore , TB
Aneury Rodriguez , TB
Jake McGee , TB
Elliot Johnson , TB
Ty Morrison , TB
Tim Beckham , TB
Michael Kirkman , TEX
Blake Beavan , TEX
Justin Smoak , TEX
Mitch Moreland , TEX
Chris Davis , TEX
Derek Holland , TEX
Chad Tracy , TEX
Tanner Scheppers , TEX
Robert Erlin , TEX
Gregorio Petit , TEX
Joseph Ortiz , TEX
Engel Beltre , TEX
Pedro Strop , TEX
Hernan Iribarren , TEX
Leury Garcia , TEX
Martin Perez , TEX
Eric Thames , TOR
Darin Mastroianni , TOR
Kyle Drabek , TOR
J. P. Arencibia , TOR
Brett Wallace , TOR
David Cooper , TOR
Tim Collins , TOR
Brad Emaus , TOR
Brett Cecil , TOR
Chris Lubanski , TOR
Jarrett Hoffpauir , TOR
Carlos Perez , TOR
Adeiny Hechavarria , TOR
Gustavo Pierre , TOR
Stephen Strasburg , WSH
Chris Marrero , WSH
Tom Milone , WSH
Danny Espinosa , WSH
Wilson Ramos , WSH
Danny Espinosa , WSH
Shairon Martis , WSH
Jordan Zimmermann , WSH
Eury Perez , WSH
Stephen Lombardozzi , WSH
J.P. Ramirez , WSH
Josh Wilkie , WSH

2 comments:

Matt Garrioch said...

I know some guys that are on Texas are shown as Cleveland Indians. I'll clean it up.

Anonymous said...

Yep, Pedro Ciriaco is no longer with ARI, he is wit PIT.

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