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Showing posts from February, 2011

The Complexity of Being a Baseball Prospector

So there are about 300 or so Division I teams, 230 or so Division II teams and I honestly don't know how many Division III, Junior colleges and other programs are out there. There are also 243 minor league teams including the short season leagues. This also includes the Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues. Once you breach that 18 year old barrier in the pro ranks, you should really look at 16 year olds in the States as well. Well that brings into account who knows how many schools scattered across the nation. How can anyone, or any organiztion for that matter, keep track of all of these players? It is so hard, next to no one even tries. I want to make it easier.
I want people to have the information that a prospect that may play in AA this season and is on most exerts top 100 list is only 2/3 of a year older than one of the most highly touted high schoolers in this draft. A player like Fernando Martinez has been written off most prospect lists, but last year would have been h…

Skills Bell Curve

I was listening to the Up and In Podcast by Baseball Prospectus and they were talking about the 20-80 scale in players. It was originated by Branch Rickey and is based on standard deviations. This is just a basic outline of how standard deviations work and what the percentage of players each score should encompass.

Looking Back at My First Top Prospect List from Feb 2009

I looked at Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN and Project Prospect to see where I differed from the pack.

I had 13 players that no one else had:
56 Jaff Decker OF SD
58 Micheal Almanzar 3B BOS
68 Bryan Anderson C STL
72 Hank Conger C LAA
73 Tim Melville P KC
75 Yorman Rodriguez OF CIN
76 Oscar Tejeda SS BOS
77 Nick Barnese P TB
78 Josh Fields P SEA
81 Nick Noonan 2B SF
94 Cedric Hunter OF SD
95 Shooter Hunt P MIN
100 Matt Moore P TB

I have more unique picks than anyone else. A few of these guys have flopped but Decker, Conger, Rodriguez and Moore are solid picks. I think that will only increase as this goes along. I haven't looked at the 2010 or the new 2011 lists but it will be interesting to see.

Baseball America were unique with:
66 Lou Marson
71 Wilson Ramos
90 Daniel Cortes
94 Brad Holt
96 Sean West

Baseball Prospectus were unique with:
45 Willin Rosario
70 Scott Elbert
81 Ross Detwiler
84 Kellen Kulbacki
92 Kyle Drabek
98 Brandon Erbe
100 Adys Portillo

I w…

Floors, Ceilings and MLB Likelihoods for over 5000 Minor

I posted a table that has a ton of the research that I have compiled and assigned to 5256 players in the minor leagues. It is a bit ugly but you can find it here.

To find a player, hit ctrl+f and search. It will find the player and you can scroll over to see his numbers.
Below the table is a description of what the numbers mean. I have spent thousands of hours compiling, studying and assigning numbers. I am not going to give all my information away for free, but this is a taste of what I have. I hope some of it fascinates you and is useful to you.

The Excitement of Football and How to Make Baseball More Exciting. One mans take.

So I'm watching the Super Bowl and I'm not much of a fan of football. I used to be, I just grew out of it. It frustrates and confuses me.

I always here football is exciting and baseball is boring. In football you have a full contact sport in which 70 plays(just a guess) are ran by each team. At best, a QB throws for 350 yards and a RB runs for 150 or so. Yes there can be extremes more than this but I think those are fair numbers to use. 500 Yds equals 1500 feet which is a bit less than 17 total bases. This equates to 4.25 runs. A little less than an average MLB team scores in every game.
A triple has a player run 270 feet in a few seconds. This is like a 90 yard run in football. I'm guessing there were more triples in MLB this season than 90 yeard runs in football. Yes they play 10 times more games, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that there were more than 10 times more triples than 90 yard runs.
Then there is the home run. Something unlike anything in football. A…

Future Major Leaguers

Based on about 65000 statistical lines of minor league data, this list projects a 77% accuracy of predicting future Major Leaguers. This is far and away the best I've done, error wise. Here is the list of 2010 minor league stat lines that project future Major Leaguers. The probabailty of AAA players on this list is 85% at worst and the worst probability is Rookie Ball and Short Season players on this list, and that probability is stil 50%.

This is a 100% statistical analysis. None of my own opinion or any other subjective information is included. Just a standard stat line manipulated by the formulas I created.

Here it is sorted by team:
Brandon Allen , ARI
Barry Enright , ARI
Bryan Augenstein , ARI
Mark Hallberg , ARI
Pedro Ciriaco , ARI
Kable Hogben , ARI
Matthew Davidson , ARI
Bobby Borchering , ARI
Cole Gillespie , ARI
Freddie Freeman , ATL
Brandon Beachy , ATL
Craig Kimbrel , ATL
Todd Redmond , ATL
Mike Minor , ATL
Brandon Beachy , ATL
Randall Delgado , ATL
Mike Minor , ATL