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My new projection system

I've have spent hundreds of hours trying to get this projection system to work. I think I finally have a usable system that I can be proud of. Using nothing more than a stat line, I run it thru a system that places into a ranking. The next step is to age adjust these ratings using historical information to approximate what players should do. The lower the player is in the majors, the worse he is likely to do, but some players project well, even from low a and rookie ball. I have created a percentage that is a realistic approximation of how likely a player is to be a major leaguer. It isn't based on if he was actually called up for a cup of coffee, it just shows how likely he is to be promoted. If a player is over 80% it is likely he will get a shot. Over 100% means he could make a solid impact. I have this percentage for both hitters and pitchers.
I don't have a good automated projection system for pitchers yet and I think that will take more time, but I'm going to work on it.
As for hitters, I have created a system that predicts what a player could do in the majors right now. It isn't a full stat line, I just created a BA/OBP/SLG slash line for each player. I have this for players from DSL all the way up to the majors. I haven't done a ton of work to verify the accuracy. With the players I have looked at, the best season a player has in his minor league career, typically his AA or AAA season, correlates fairly well to his future career average slash line.
The two slash lines I created for each minor league player are what a player could likely do in the majors currently and what his future output could be.
For major leaguers it is likely the worst they will do and the best they will do.
I will post some of this info on the blog, maybe projecting the future lineup for the Royals, since they are so stacked.


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Names to Watch for 2011 and 2012 Draft

For more information on the draft, check out my new blog MLB Bonus Baby for more information regarding the draft.

Over the next month or so, I will be moving most Draft related info to MLB Draft Prospects. MiLB Prospects will be more focused on current minor leaguers.

These lists are far from perfect but it's a start

Aaron Brown , OF , Chatsworth HS, Calif.
Aaron Westlake , OF , Vanderbilt
Aaron Collazo , SS , Lady Bird Johnson, San Antonio, TX
Aaron Deguire , C , El Camino College
Aaron Dunsmore , OF , Dayton
Aaron Fanning , SS , Northwest (TX) HS
Aaron Gretz , C , Apple Valley, Apple Valley, MN
Aaron Johnson , LHP , Dunham, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Knapp , MIF , Granite Bay Granite Bay CA
Aaron Moore , RHP , Westwood Austin TX
Aaron Nola , RHP , Catholic, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Novak , OF/RHP , Germantown Academy (PA)
Aaron Thomassen , RHP , Nathan Hale Seattle WA
Aaron Westlake , 1B/OF , Vanderbilt
Abram Cartledge , LHP , Thomson, Thomson, GA
Adam Bennett , SS/RHP , …

Top 300- 2010 MLB Draft Prospects

Name POS Schools
1 Bryce Harper C Southern Nevada CC
2 Jameson Taillon RHP The Woodlands (Texas) HS
3 Anthony Ranaudo P LSU
4 Drew Pomeranz LHP Mississippi
5 Nick Castellanos 3B Archbishop McCarthy HS, FLA
6 Bryce Brentz OF Middle Tennessee State
7 AJ Cole P Oviedo HS, Orlando
8 Zack Cox 3B Arkansas
9 Austin Wilson OF Harvard-Westlake HS, CA
10 Deck McGuire RHP Georgia Tech
11 Karsten Whitson RHP Chipley HS, Bartow, Fla.
12 Christian Colon SS Cal State Fullerton
13 Matt Harvey P North Carolina
14 Levon Washington 2B/OF Chipola JC
15 Manny Machado SS Brito Prep, Miami
16 Josh Sale OF Bishop Blanchet HS, SEA
17 Chris Sale LHP Florida Gulf Coast
18 Jedd Gyorko 2B West Virginia
19 Brandon Workman P Texas
20 Stetson Allie 3B St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio
21 Brian Ragira OF Martin HS, Arlington
22 Dylan Covey P Maranatha HS, Pasadena, CA
23 Derek Dietrich SS Georgia Tech
24 DeAndre Smelter P Tattnall Square GA
25 Kevin Gausman RHP Grandview HS, Aurora, Colo
26 Cameron Bedrosian P East Coweta HS, Sharpsburg, GA
27 Jos…