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My new projection system

I've have spent hundreds of hours trying to get this projection system to work. I think I finally have a usable system that I can be proud of. Using nothing more than a stat line, I run it thru a system that places into a ranking. The next step is to age adjust these ratings using historical information to approximate what players should do. The lower the player is in the majors, the worse he is likely to do, but some players project well, even from low a and rookie ball. I have created a percentage that is a realistic approximation of how likely a player is to be a major leaguer. It isn't based on if he was actually called up for a cup of coffee, it just shows how likely he is to be promoted. If a player is over 80% it is likely he will get a shot. Over 100% means he could make a solid impact. I have this percentage for both hitters and pitchers.
I don't have a good automated projection system for pitchers yet and I think that will take more time, but I'm going to work on it.
As for hitters, I have created a system that predicts what a player could do in the majors right now. It isn't a full stat line, I just created a BA/OBP/SLG slash line for each player. I have this for players from DSL all the way up to the majors. I haven't done a ton of work to verify the accuracy. With the players I have looked at, the best season a player has in his minor league career, typically his AA or AAA season, correlates fairly well to his future career average slash line.
The two slash lines I created for each minor league player are what a player could likely do in the majors currently and what his future output could be.
For major leaguers it is likely the worst they will do and the best they will do.
I will post some of this info on the blog, maybe projecting the future lineup for the Royals, since they are so stacked.


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These lists are far from perfect but it's a start

Aaron Brown , OF , Chatsworth HS, Calif.
Aaron Westlake , OF , Vanderbilt
Aaron Collazo , SS , Lady Bird Johnson, San Antonio, TX
Aaron Deguire , C , El Camino College
Aaron Dunsmore , OF , Dayton
Aaron Fanning , SS , Northwest (TX) HS
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Aaron Johnson , LHP , Dunham, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Knapp , MIF , Granite Bay Granite Bay CA
Aaron Moore , RHP , Westwood Austin TX
Aaron Nola , RHP , Catholic, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Novak , OF/RHP , Germantown Academy (PA)
Aaron Thomassen , RHP , Nathan Hale Seattle WA
Aaron Westlake , 1B/OF , Vanderbilt
Abram Cartledge , LHP , Thomson, Thomson, GA
Adam Bennett , SS/RHP , …

2017 MLB Draft Top Prospects

1Hagen DannerRHPHS2Ronald WashingtonOFHS4J.J. SchwarzCCollege5Turner LarkinsRHPCollege7Evan SkougCCollege8Keith WeisenbergRHPCollege9Bryce Montes De OcaRHPCollege11Pavin Smith1BCollege12David PetersonLHPCollege12Cobi JohnsonRHPCollege14Keaton McKinneyRHPCollege15Mitch HartRHPCollege16Jake GodfreyRHPCollege17Patrick MahomesRHPCollege18Nicholas PrattoLHPHS19Nolan (Nonie) WilliamsSSHS20Scott HurstCFCollege21Jacob BukauskasRHPCollege21Carl ChesterCFCollege22Jeren KendallCFCollege23Bennett SousaLHPCollege24C.J. MooreCFCollege25Griffin CanningRHPCollege25Alejandro Toral1BHS26Jordan ButlerLHPHS27Altoon ColemanRHPHS28Ben JordanRHPHS29Kel JohnsonRFCollege30Derek CaseyRHPCollege31Joseph Dunand3BCollege32Mark VientosSSHS33Bryce CarterCCollege34Hunter MilliganLHPHS35Alex LangeRHPCollege35Michael CantuCCollege36Tanner Burns3BHS37Jon LittellOFCollege38Zack ShannonOFCollege39Jeff HardingRHPCollege40Shane BenesOFCollege41Justin SmithCFCollege42Matt RuppenthalRHPCollege43K.J. HarrisonCCollege44Riley A…