Monday, November 29, 2010

Legend for my Reports

MiLB Prospects

From the top, moving right: MiLB/MLB defines whether a player is a major or minor leaguer. Next is the players first name, then last name. The players current position, then the players projected position. Finally is his estimated time of arrival in the majors.

Under Vitals is the players age as of 4-1-11. Going down the list is the players birthday, the way he swings, the way he throws, his height, his weight and finally his body size. This is simply his weight divided by height. It is a way of measuring if a player is maxed out physically, very skinny(Chris Sale) or kind of fat (Dayan Viciedo).

To the right is scores. The first 2 are floor and ceiling. They are based on this:
Hitters Pitchers
10 All-time great All-time great
9 Superstar Ace
8 Occasional All-Star #1 or #2, Closer
7 Starter-Solid Regular #3(7.6), #4(7.3),#5 (7.0), Set up man(7.0)
6 Part-time player swingman/ 7th inning guy
5 bench warmer 12th pitcher
4 top level minor leaguer top level minor leaguer
3 middle level minor leaguer middle level minor leaguer
2 low level minor leaguer low level minor leaguer
1 won't last long won't last long

There are other increments in there as well, but they are just to differentiate players slightly.
Projection is what the player currently projects to become. Below that is % chance. This is the likelihood of a player reaching the major leagues.

In the next column to the right is other info. This states the round in which a player was drafted or the country he was signed from. The next row is the year he was signed or drafted and below that is the bonus he received. Next is the year in which the players’ contract runs out, but still has an option. Next is the approximate year in which the team loses control of the player.
Next are the rankings. First is the overall rank in the minor leagues. Next is his rank on his team, then his rank at his position.
The next 4 values are based on a complex formula I designed to predict a players’ future value. It isn’t perfect and is one of the things I am continuing to work on. The first value is the value I believe a player is worth right now if he were on the open market. The next is the value a player is worth if a team wants to win right now. The 3rd is the value a player is worth if a team wants to win later. This number could be used to evaluate trades of major leaguer for minor leaguers in which it looks lopsided. The young player may have a lot of future value. The 4th number is simply an average of the first 3 values.
The next 2 spots are for links to videos. I don’t have this portion operating currently. Lastly is the level in which the player ranked the best in the previous season. The statistics below this are from this level.

Under hitting, first is contact rate. This is just K/AB in percentage form. Walk rate is BB/AB in percentage form. The next 8 ratings are based on the 20-80 scale in scouting and show where a player sits with each skill. The higher this number the better a player is at that skill. One thing that needs to be considered is age. These numbers are not age adjusted except for Total. For example if a player has an age value of 65 and a hitting value of 48, this doesn’t mean he will be a below average hitter. It means he was nearly average while being considerably younger than his competition and you can expect significant improvement, at least in hitting and power. A players BB rating and K rating should improve as he gains in experience but it could also decrease due to difficulty. A players’ speed will likely decrease as he gains weight and ages. You can look at both age and body size to help decide what is going to happen with the player. Production value is more of a value in how much of an opportunity a team gives the prospect to produce runs. It can be really high on players who are minor league sluggers but don’t project to do it in the majors like Joel Guzman. Total is a crucial number to look at. It is a cumulative number that states how good of a season the player had based on the other numbers. Defense is a number that I have assigned to a player from seeing the player play or reading scouting reports on a players’ defense. It is based on his current position, not his projected position.

Under pitching, the first row is a players’ FB velocity range followed by his max velocity. Next is the velocity of the players’ curve ball, slider and change-up. I don’t have this information for all the players, but I don for the better prospects. Next is the players projected spot in the rotation. This is an educated guess, but it can give you an idea of what a player can accomplish. The next 8 ratings are similar to that of hitters. They are based on 20-80 scale with 50 being the average. IP/G is just an average, so over 50 means a pitcher will probably be a starter, below it, he will likely be a reliever. WHIP is based on how many runners a pitcher allows. Control is based on walks while dominance is based on strikeouts/9. Efficiency is my version of FIP and ERA is based on ERA and some other things. Age needs to be taken into consideration with pitchers but not quite as much as hitters. Total is the best number to look at to see what kind of season the player had, age relative to the league.

Lastly, is my report. I haven’t written too many of these yet, but I have for a few guys. I’ll do more of these as I get more requests for personalized reports but I can’t promise I’ll do this for any more than I already have, which is minimal.

MiLB Prospects Reports to help you win in your fantasy league.

As you guys know, I hope, I have been working on a database of players and rankings for a few years now. This year I posted a report featuring the Futures Game Roster and information on each of the players in it. This was the first version of my report. I have adapted it a little an recently I posted the Rule 5 Draft Report
featuring many of the players available in the Rule 5 draft. They aren't the best prospects in baseball but there are better ones this year than last year.

That is the most recent version of my database and I would like to make this available to you guys. I've put in thousands of hours on compiling this information so I can't offer it for free. My plan is to offer specialized reports to give you more in depth information about the players that you are interested in. You send me a list, and I'll send you a .pdf report on the players that you want. If you want the top 20 propsects for your favorite team, or the top 100 starting pitchers, I can do that too. If you are a fantasy player and want a ranking of your top prospects or players who are available in your draft, I can do that to.
I will only charge $0.10 per player, so if you want a report of 50 players, it'll cost $5. If you want a larger number of players, I can do that as well and would be willing to lower the cost. Below are the links to the top prospects for each team and the best prospects at each position to help you with compiling a list of who you want to know more about. I have major leaguers available as well. I have a total of 6780 in my database that I can create reports on.

If you are interested email me at garrioch13@gmail.com and let me know who you want reported on. I will take payment via paypal only. To order, email me the list. On the right is the donate paypal button. Click on it and enter the amount due for the report. Hit donate and you should recieve the report within a few days.

Thank you all for you're support and if there are any other requests, just ask.

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/p/top-prospects-by-position.html

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/p/top-prospects-by-team.html

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Rule 5 Draft

This season's rule 5 draft is more prospect heavy than it has been the last couple years to me.
Aneury Rodriguez, P, TB had good control and put up good results while being young for his league. His strikeouts could increase with time and I really like him as a potential pick.
Jose Pirela, SS, NYY showed he could hit the ball to the gaps and run and was still young for the Florida State League. I think he could hit enough to be the last player on a roster if someone is looking for a future SS.
Luis Jimenez, 3B, LAA could hit enough to play part time at 3B and could have enough bat to hit a few extra base hits.
Billy Rowell, OF/1B/3B, BAL was a 1st round pick that got Barry Bonds comparisons out of high school and still has big power. He just can't hit the ball frequently. He is likely relegated to 1B but could play in the OF a little and still has potential. I don't believe he can be a future big league regular, but if anyone has all-star potential in this group, it could be him.
The Astros have 3 players I like available. Collin Delome, OF, could be a Russell Branyan type player. He has a good bat and solid power but has contact issues. He could even steal a few bases and play decent defense in LF. Jose Altuve is a really short 2B. He has good contact ability and has alwasy held his own while being young for his league. I don't think he's ready to play in the majors, but I like him. Koby Clemens is a 1B/3B/C. He is versatile enough to play a few positions and has the bat for any of then. He won't hit for a high average but he can hit it a long way. I think he is mature enough to make the jump to the majors and be a decent bench player.
Ryan Adams, 2B/3B, BAL probably will be relegated to 2B defensively
but he could be an average offensive 2B in the majors. He is definately worth a pick in the draft. I am intrigued to see if he gets picked.
Wynn Pelzer, P, BAL came over for Miguel Tejada but was left unprotected by the O's. He could be a good bullpen arm to be used in long relief and used as a spot starter sometimes.
Brad Meyers, P, WSH has had some success but is a pitchability guy and I don't know if his stuff will work at the big league level.
Matt McBride, C/OF, CLE could pay dividends. He can hit and is not a bad defensive catcher. If a team needed a backup catcher, he could get picked.
I've always liked Dallas Buck, P, CIN but he hasn't returned to his pre-tommy john form.
Jim Negrych, 2B, PIT can hit. Not for power but he can hit. He can play an acceptable 2B and could get a chance. He's a personal favorite.
Brad Emaus, 2B and Mark Hallberg could fit in this mold as well.
There are quite a few guys who have superb control but not a lot to go along with it. I posted a link to a pdf from my database of most of the players in the Rule 5 draft. I missed a few, but not a lot.
You can scan where there skills rate on the 20-80 scale(or off it in some cases). I have most of their vital info, where they were drafted, where they project, their potential value, etc.
I don't have a legend for this posted but here is what the floor/ceiling ratings mean:
Hitters Pitchers
10 All-time great All-time great
9 Superstar Ace
8 Occasional All-Star #1 or #2, Closer
7 Starter-Solid Regular #3-5, Setup man
6 Part-time player swingman/ 7th inning guy
5 bench warmer 12th pitcher
4 top level minor leaguer top level minor leaguer
3 middle level minor leaguer middle level minor leaguer
2 low level minor leaguer low level minor leaguer
1 won't last long won't last long

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Values of players

As I posted in the Victor Martinez post, I have 3 different values for each player. The top 10 prospects who are the "safest" are:

Mike Minor , P , ATL 61.18
Dayan Viciedo , 3B , CHW 50.39
Jesus Montero , C , NYY 49.54
Chris Sale , P , CHW 47.88
Jenrry Mejia , P , NYM 44.61
Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC 37.95
Andrew Oliver , P , DET 37.92
Brett Lawrie , 2B , MIL 37.73
Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA 36.89
Mike Trout , OF , LAA 36.33

This is what I feel the current value of these players would be on an open market.

The top 10 for teams who want to win now, a future earnings number with a % of success factored in:
Jesus Montero , C , NYY 56.82
Aroldis Chapman , P , CIN 56.55
Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA 56.35
Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC 55.94
Julio Teheran , P , ATL 55.02
Mike Trout , OF , LAA 54.65
Bryce Harper , OF , WSH 53.29
Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB 50.16
Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC 49.17
Domonic Brown , OF , PHI 49.13

The top 10 for Win Later, essentially a potential future earnings number:
Bryce Harper , OF , WSH 181.75
Gary Sanchez , C , NYY 160.47
Mike Trout , OF , LAA 159.79
Jameson Taillon , P , PIT 148.57
Miguel Sano , SS , MIN 147.60
Julio Teheran , P , ATL 139.12
Jesus Montero , C , NYY 138.72
Manny Machado , SS , BAL 136.46
Matt Moore , P , TB 133.02
Martin Perez , P , TEX 122.85

Victor Martinez signs with Detroit

Martinez signed with Detroit today for 4 years/50 million dollars. I've posted a few things over the past few years trying to estimate fair value of players. One formula I came up with overrated mediocre prospects, another only worked for major leaguers but now I think I have one that will work for any professional player.
I have Victor Martinez worth 23.46 million using the safest rating. If a team that is rebuilding would have signed him, the most they should have paid is 22.70 million and a team looking to win now should have went up to 63.70 million.
I think the Tigers giving VMart 50 million is a fair deal for him and for the Tigers.
Just for another reference the Cincinatti Reds signed Dontrelle Willis to a minor league contract today. His safe number is 1.04 million. The win now value is kind of ridiculous at 17.43, but he could be worth that if he would ever return to the level he once was. The 3rd value is 1.04 million. I call it the win later value, which essentially any team could pay and not be getting ripped off too badly.
I just had a break through on this a couple days ago, so I haven't analyzed it too deeply, but it doesn't look too bad at the moment.

Monday, November 22, 2010

2011 Draft Top 150 Prospects

For more information, check out MLB Bonus Baby, my draft blog thru SB Nation.
I don't have write ups for all these guys yet, but I'm getting there.

My Rank Name Last Name , POS , Schools Report

1 Anthony Rendon , 3B , Rice : Rendon has all the skills to be a great MLB 3B. Great power, good defense, strong arm. Easily the best prospect in the 2011 draft. Could be a top-tier 3B in the years to come.

2 Matt Purke , LHP , Texas Christian : Purke has a fastball that can reach the mid 90's and a nasty slider that are both plus pitches now. He has good command and poise. A future ace.

3 Gerrit Cole , RHP , UCLA : Cole has a great arm and can run it up to 98. He has a sharp curve and has a workhorse build. His only drawback is his command.

4 Sonny Gray , RHP , Vanderbilt : Gray has front of the rotation stuff, but is a short righthander. I don't care because he has the stuff and attitude to succeed and he could do it quickly after he is signed.

5 Daniel Norris , LHP , Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn. : Norris has a 92-96 MPH FB with a plus CB and a good change for a HS pitcher, especially a lefty. He has room to get better and he needs polish.

6 Travis Harrison , OF/3B , Tustin (Calif.) HS : Harrison swings stiff some times but so did Harmon Killebrew. He is the best power hitting prep in the class. He's a good athlete so his mechanical issues should get ironed out quickly. My favorite prep bat in the class.

7 Taylor Jungmann , RHP , Texas : Jungmann has a FB that can sit mid 90's. He has two different breaking balls that are both outpitches at times. He doesn't scream ace, but should be a near lock for a 3rd starter if injury doesn’t strike and that is pretty valuable.

8 Trevor Bauer , RHP , UCLA : Bauer gets a Lincecum comp a lot. That is unfair to Bauer, because he isn't THAT good, but he is very good in his own right. Known for his unique warm ups, he has the arm to back up his attitude. He's a bulldog armed with a low 90's FB and a plus CB with good command and a good CH as well.

9 Jackie Bradley , OF , South Carolina : Bradley is a well rounded package with no huge tools. He has a plus arm, good range in CF and good speed. He has a quick bat and makes good contact. The one thing he lacks is power, but it may come. He had a wrist injury last season, so this season will show if that will be one of his playable
skills.

10 George Springer , OF , Connecticut : Springer has a ton of upside. He has enormous power, a great arm, good speed and can cover CF right now. He needs to work on hitting good offspeed pitches but he could be special.

11 Archie Bradley , RHP , Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS : Bradley is a great athlete who has a plus mid 90's fastball and a plus breaking ball. He's a two sport star committed to Oklahoma.

12 Bubba Starling , OF/RHP , Gardner Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan. : Starling is a great athlete who can pitch, but will be an Outfielder if he doesn't end up a QB. He reminds me of a more athletic David McCarty, the former top Twins Prospect.

13 Dylan Bundy , RHP , Owasso (Okla.) HS : Bundy is the high school version of Gray, maybe a touch taller. He's a short righty who throws mid 90's with a plus breaking ball. He has some mileage on his arm though and is committed to Texas, where they don't take it easy on their pitchers.

14 Alex Meyer , RHP , Kentucky : Meyer has a mid 90's FB and a hammer curve with good control for a guy his size. Near Lock 1st rounder.

15 Austin Hedges , C , JSerra Catholic, San Juan Capistrano, Calif. : Hedges is loose and athletic for a catcher. He may not be built like a rock, but he can catch and he's a good hitter. He reminds me a little of Buster Posey.

16 Joshua Tobias , 2B , Southeast Guilford Greensboro NC : Tobias is a 3B now, but I think his arm will relegate him to 2B. He is short and stocky and has a really quick bat. He is really fast and has a lot of raw power. He could be a 20-20 guy at 2B.

17 Henry Owens , LHP , Edison HS, Huntington Beach, Calif. : Big lefty sits low 90's but could add a few MPH's when he adds strength. He knows what he's doing on the mound. He has a big, slow breaking ball as well.

18 Michael Kelly , P , West Boca Raton (Boca Raton Fla.) : Kelly is a long lean projectable righty. He can already hit 96 so there could be more in there. He has a decent breaking ball and is a Florida commit.

19 Matt Barnes , RHP , Connecticut : Barnes is flying up draft charts with a great summer and a mid to upper 90's FB. He has a nice breaking ball that he is commanding better recently. Looking like a lock for the first round right now.

20 Dillon Howard , RHP , Searcy (Ark.) HS : Howard is a tall righty who can run it up to the mid 90's but sits more 92-93. Has a powerful low 80's slider as well as a solid changeup from a high schooler.

21 Jack Armstrong , RHP , Vanderbilt : Armstrong has a lot of projection. He has the arm to throw mid 90's and can spin a curve but he's still inconsistent with his command.

22 Alex Dickerson , OF , Indiana : Dickerson's value is mostly in his bat but it has a lot of value. He has big power and can hit for average as well.

23 Dillon Maples , RHP , Pinecrest HS, Southern Pines, N.C. : Maples has a low 90's fastball and a sharp slider. He needs some polish but he has a lot of potential.

24 Zach Cone , OF , Georgia : Cone is an under the radar 5 tool guy, if that's possible. Watching Georgia, he stands out as a potential star but he is raw and inconsistent. Potential high reward guy.

25 Nick Burdi , RHP , Downers Grove South Downers Grove IL : Burdi can hit 95 and has good movement on his FB. Tight Slider is a solid pitch.

26 Blake Swihart , C , Rio Rancho, N.M. : Swihart has a line drive swing with potential for home run power. He is a solild defensively and is one of the best catching prospects in the 2011 draft.

27 Derek Fisher , OF , Cedar Crest, Rexmont, PA : Fisher has a beautiful swing. He's already 6'3, 205 and could end up outgrowing the OF. He should hit enough for any position though.

28 Danny Hultzen , LHP , Virginia : Hultzen has a low 90's fastball and is one of the safer picks in the draft.

29 Riccio Torrez , SS , Arizona State : Torrez has a good bat and should be able to play in the middle infield, at 2B more likely than SS, though. He could be an offensive 2B while being very solid defensively.

30 Mikie Mahtook , OF , Louisiana State : Mahtook is a gamer. He has a solid arm and have above average speed. Can handle CF defensively and has some pop. He's more of a line drive hitter but he's not just a slap hitter.

31 Levi Michael , 2B , North Carolina : Michael could be an above average offensive 2B. He has a nice line drive swing, good speed and arm and is strong defensively.

32 Tyler Beede , RHP , Lawrence Academy, Groton, Mass. : Beede has a projectable body and already has a 4 pitch mix that he has command of. He is polished and has the upside of a #2 starter.

33 Kevin Jacob , P , Georgia Tech : Jacob is a tall righty who can run it up to 99. He's had injury issues in the past and is a senior, so I'm not sure where he'll go in the draft. He's a Boras client as well.

34 Preston Tucker , 1B , Florida : Tucker has a great approach and looks like he could be a middle of the lineup kind of guy, but he doesn't hit the ball with authority often.

35 B.A. Vollmuth , SS , Southern Mississippi : Vollmuth is big for a SS and may have to move to 3B if he looses a step. He should have average power for a 3B but his contact is an issue.

36 Rookie Davis , P-IF , Dixon HS, Holly Ridge N.C. : Davis is a massive kid who can hit for enormous power with good bat speed. He is also a pitcher. He throws in the low 90's with a nice curve.

37 Christian Montgomery , RHP , Lawrence Central HS, Indianapolis : Montgomery has a 92-95 MPH fastball with a really good breaking ball and a nice changeup. His biggest flaw is his weight but it doesn't bother me as long it doesn't hurt his endurance.

38 Brandon Nimmo , CF , East HS,Cheyenne, Wyo. : Nimmo doesn't have high school ball where he is from, so he is raw since he only plays summer ball. He has a great feel for hitting though.

39 Bryan Brickhouse , RHP , The Woodlands (The Woodlands, Texas) : Brickhouse is a loose lean righty with potential. His command is lacking and doesn't have the stuff of his former teammate Jameson Taillon. He needs to gain polish but has a good ceiling.

40 Austin Slater , SS , The Bolles HS, Jacksonville, Fla. : Slater has a really nice swing with some power. His range may make him more suited for 3B and he definitely has the arm for the hot corner.

41 Greg Bird , C , Grandview HS : Bird is a big catcher that is a decent defender but may outgrow the position. His biggest asset is his bat. He has a short left handed swing and is a really good hitter.

42 Hawtin Buchanan , P , Biloxi HS : Hawtin is all projection. He's 6'8" and throws low 90's. He's athletic for his size and is definitely a project worth taking a shot on.

43 Joshua Bell , OF , Jesuit HS, Dallas TX : Bell has a big frame with an uppercut swing. Reminds me a little of Preston Wilson early in his career.

44 Harold Martinez , 3B , Miami : Martinez was highly touted out of high school but never reached the ceiling many expected. He is a solid defender at 3B and should have the bat to be an average MLB 3B.

45 Jason Esposito , 3B , Vanderbilt : Esposito turned down a lot of money to go to Vanderbilt but hasn't showed the bat many expected in games. He can put on a show in BP but it has yet to translate.

46 Jed Bradley , LHP , Georgia Tech : Bradley isn't a flamethrower but has a nice 3 pitch mix and is a solid pitchability lefty who, if he adds a couple MPH's, he could be really good.

47 Kolten Wong , 2B , Hawaii : Wong is a short stocky 2B. He can hit well and is an adequate defender and runner. He could be a solid offensive 2B.

48 Ryan Carpenter , LHP , Gonzaga : Carpenter is a big lefty with good stuff. He has a tight curveball and a good fastball. He reminds me of Drew Smyly, a 2nd round pick of the Tigers from last season.

49 Ricky Oropesa , 3B , Southern California : Oropesa can hit the ball a mile, but swings and misses an awful lot. He is decent at 3B and has a good arm to stay there. The contact issue is the key.

50 Matty Ott , RP , Louisianna State : Ott has good stuff and a bulldog mentality as the closer for LSU. He could maybe get a shot as a starter but is a sure bet to at least be a solid reliever in the majors.

51 Austin Wood , P , Southern California : Wood had a great showing in the Cape Cod league this summer. He joins the ranks of power arms out of college this year. Control is his major issue. Could go very high if he gains more command.

52 Francisco Lindor , SS , Montverde (Fla.) Academy : Lindor has a lot of value defensively but doesn't have much of a bat at this point. He's mostly a slap and run guy.

53 Andrew Susac , C , Oregon State : Susac is a solid bat and a good catcher. He needs more polish all around but he's a solid backstop.

54 Charlie Tilson , OF , New Trier, Wilmette, IL : Tilson is a sweet swinging lefty with pop. He has plus speed and can cover ground in centerfield. He is the high school version of Jackie Bradley.

55 Phillip Evans , SS/RHP , LaCosta Canyon Carlsbad CA : Evans has a nice short swing and produces good pop for his size. He has good enough skills to stay at SS in the short term but he may outgrow it in the long run though.

56 Christian Lopes , SS , Edison HS, Huntington Beach, Calif. : Davey's son has a nice swing with gap to gap power and good speed. May be a 2B in the future though.

57 Billy Flamion , OF , Central Catholic (Modesto, Calif.) : Flamion is a stellar athlete and could pitch, but I think his future is in the OF. He has some moving parts in his swing that need tweaking but he could have huge potential with the bat.

58 Dwight Smith , OF , McIntosh HS, Peachtree City, Ga. : Smith has a quick swing and can really hit but needs to tone down his swing mechanics.

59 Jose Fernandez , RHP , Alonso HS, Tampa, FLA : Fernandez is a big physical righty from Cuba. He has power on the mound and at the plate but has more on the mound. Could be a big durable righty and a front of the rotation type.

60 Tyler Greene , SS , West Boca Raton (Fla.) HS/Roswell Ga. HS :

61 Adrian Houser , RHP , Locust Grove, Locust Grove, OK :

62 Carson Baranik , RHP , Bossier HS, LA :

63 Connor Castellano , INF , Evangel Christian (Shreveport, La.) :

64 Joshua Osich , P , Oregon State : Osich had Tommy John surgery but was throwing in the upper 90's prior to that. Is one of the more intriguing arms in this years draft.

65 Jake Cave , OF/LHP , Kecoughtoan Hampton VA : Cave can run it up to 94 on the mound and has a decent BB and a really good change. At the plate he has a shot quick swing with power potential. Classic two way player is commited to LSU.

66 Anthony Meo , P , Coastal Carolina : Meo has good fastball velo and a nice breaking ball. He improved his control and K rate last year and could be a solid back of the rotation guy or a back of the pen guy more likely.

67 Burch Smith , P , Oklahoma : Smith can throw in the low to mid 90's and has a decent curveball. He doesn't have a lot of deception to his delivery. He is more hittable than he should be with the stuff he has.

68 Jason Coats , OF , Texas Christian : Coats has a nice swing and looks like a pro player. He is confident and knows how to play.

69 Zach MacPhee , 2B , ASU : MacPhee can hit. He's ok at 2B and can run well. He has learned how to switch hit, so that improves his offensive value. Playing in Arizona may inflate his numbers though.

70 Aaron Westlake , OF , Vanderbilt : Westlake is a hitter. He has mediocre defensive skills and speed but can hit for average. His power will determine how far he goes though. The more it develops the further he will go.

71 Adam McCreery , P , Bonita (La Verne, Calif.) : McCreery is a tall, thin lefty who is very projectable. He has a solid breaking ball but the velocity is a little short for a high first rounder. If he gains a couple MPH's he could fly up draft boards.

72 Cody Kukuk , LHP , Free State HS, Lawrence, Kan : Kukuk has a solid fastball and a decent slider. His CB and chance need more work. He is a 2-way guy with a pretty good swing from the left side as well.

73 Alex Panteliodis , LHP , Florida : I'm not sure what to think of Panteliodis. One time I saw him he was throwing 97, then 87 the following time. If he can throw 97, he could be a good closer. If he's 87, he'll be a middle reliever at best.

74 Scott McGough , RHP , Oregon : Looks like more of a back of the pen kind of guy, but he could be a mid rotation guy if a team wants to try him there.

75 Tyler Anderson , LHP , Oregon :

76 Sam Stafford , LHP , Texas : Stafford has good stuff but needs polish to his change and slider. Has a nice curve and and good movement with his fastball.

77 Kyle Smith , RHP , Lake Worth, Fla. :

78 Mitchell Lambson , LHP , Arizona State :

79 Nick Ramirez , 1B/P , Cal State Fullerton : Ramirez is a two way guy, but doesn't blow me away either way. If he shortens his swing, it could help him offensively. He's 86-90 MPH from the left side, so he could have a reliever future.

80 Noe Ramirez , P , Cal State Fullerton : Ramirez won't blow you away but knows how to get hitters out with his 91 MPH sinking fastball.

81 Bryan Harper , P , South Carolina :

82 Johnny Ruettiger , OF , Arizona State :

83 Tony Zych , RHP , Louisville : Zych is a power arm who could be a solid back of the pen arm. He has good movement on his fastball, but his secondary pitches need work. His neck snap is a little scary and he could get hit hard if he leaves the ball up in the zone.

84 Javier Baez , SS , Arlington Country Day HS, FLA : Baez has a good arm and decent range at SS but is a step slow to stay there. He has a solid swing and could end up as an offensive
2B.

85 Cameron Gallagher , C , Manheim Township HS, Lancaster, Pa. :

86 Deshorn Lake , RHP , Menchville HS, Newport News, Va. :

87 Dylan Davis , RHP , Redmond HS, WA :

88 Navery Moore , RHP , Vanderbilt :

89 Andrew Suarez , LHP , Columbus HS, Miami :

90 Peter O'Brien , C , Bethune-Cookman :

91 Cole Gleason , RHP/UTL , Red Mountain HS, AZ :

92 Brandon Sedell , C , American Heritage Cooper City FL :

93 Taylor Guerrieri , RHP , North Augusta, N. Augusta, SC : Guerrieri has a strong fastball that has some movement. His breaking ball has potential and he is athletic, so he could improve with repetition.

94 Jacob Anderson , OF , Chino (Chino, Calif.) :

95 Ricardo Jacquez , RHP/SS , Franklin El Paso TX : Jacquez is a very small guy. His arm is huge though, running it up to 94. He also has a hammer curve. If he gains strength, he could gain velo. Kinda reminds me of Julio Teheran.

96 Robert Stephenson , RHP , Alhambra HS, Martinez, Calif. : Stephenson can run it up to the mid 90's from a high effort delivery. Needs to clean up his mechanics a little but has a high ceiling.

97 Brett Mooneyham , LHP , Stanford : He has top of the draft stuff and projectibility, but his command and this sets him back considerably in my eyes.

98 Hudson Boyd , RHP , South Fort Myers HS, FL :
99 Larry Greene , OF , Berrien County HS, Nashville, Ga. :

100 Shon Carson , OF , Lake City (Scranton, S.C.) :
101 Tyler Marlette , 3B , Oviedo, FL :

102 Dante Bichette , 3B , Orangewood Christian, FL :

103 John Curtiss , P , Southlake Carroll (Southlake, Texas) :

104 Mason Robbins , OF , George County HS, Lucedale, Miss. :

105 Shawon Dunston , OF , Valley Christian (San Jose, Calif.) :

106 Daniel Camarena , LHP/OF , Cathedral Catholic HS, San Diego :

107 T.J. Costen , SS , First Colonial Virginia Beach VA :

108 John Magliozzi , RHP , Dexter School, Brookline, Mass. :

109 Dan Mengden , P , Westside HS :

110 Wallace Gonzalez , OF/3B , Bishop Amat Covina CA : Gonzalez has a really long swing but he generates a ton of leverage with it. He has a huge power ceiling and is a good athlete but it could open him up to K a ton.

111 Daniel Arellano , Outfield , Centennial (Corona Calif.) :

112 Jo-el Bennett , OF , Houston Academy (Dothan, Ala.) :

113 Danny Canela , C , NC State :

114 Porter Clayton , LHP , Bonneville (Idaho Falls, Id.) :

115 Chris Harvey , C/INF , Norristown, Pa. :

116 Roderick Shoulders , C , Manatee CC

117 Brandon Woodruff , RHP , Wheeler (Miss.) HS :

118 Colton Murray , RHP , Kansas :

119 Nevin Wilson , LHP , Chaparral High School, Scottsdale, AZ :

120 Kyle Gaedele , 3B , Valparaiso : You may recognize the last name. He is the great-nephew of Eddie Gaedele but bears no physical resemblance. He has huge raw power and really good speed. He plays solid defense at 3B but may have to move to a corner OF spot. He has the arm for RF.

121 Joe Ross , P , Bishop O'Dowd HS, CA : Ross is the younger brother of A's prospect Tyson Ross, and is a comparable prospect. He has a big arm and can run it up to 94 but his command is below average and needs work.

122 Grayson Garvin , LHP , Vanderbilt : Garvin is a polished tall lefty who knows how to pitch and is polished considering the relief role he has had at Vanderbilt. He could end up being a bullpen arm, but I think he could take off if allowed to start.

123 Ronnie Richardson , OF , Central Florida : Richardson is a little on the short side but he can hit. He has a nice swing and plus speed to reach base and wreak havoc on the basepaths when he's on it.

124 Nick Maronde , LHP , Florida : Maronde has a good fastball and a slider that could be a plus pitch. He looks more like a bullpen arm than a starter to me.

125 Taylor Nichols , C , Faith Academy Mobile AL :

126 Nick Delmonico , SS/C , Farragut HS, Knoxville, Tenn. :

127 John Stilson , rhp , Texas A&M : Stilson has a mid 90's fastball and a plus slider. It's possible he could be a top 10 pick to Arizona but will slide if they don't pick him.

128 Will Lamb , OF/LHP , Clemson : Lamb is a legit 2-way guy. He could have a shot as a 1B or a LHP. I am leaning toward 1B right now. He can play above average defense and hit for high average. He has good speed for his size and could develop a decent amount of power.

129 Carson Smith , rhp , Texas State : Smith throws with a sidearm delivery and has solid stuff. His fastball sinks hard and he reminds me of Pat Neshek with a little less funk in his delivery.

130 C.J. Cron , C , Utah : Cron has good pop in his bat, but isn't a top tier guy.

131 Brad Miller , 2B/SS , Clemson : Miller is unlikly
to stick at SS as a pro but could be a well above average 2B offensively and defensively. He could move to 3B, but I think his athletecism will be used best at 2B.

132 Julius Gaines , SS , Luella, Locust Grove, GA : Gaines possesses the skills to stay at SS and can hit.

133 Logan Verrett , RHP , Baylor : Verrett is an athletic righty with decent stuff. Projects as a back of the rotation starter.

134 Joe Panik , SS , Connecticut : Panik has solid contact ability and has gap power. He has solid speed and should be able to stay at SS. He doesn't have the bat for 3rd, so he'll have to move to 2B if he has to move off the position.

135 Andrew Gagnon , RHP , Long Beach State U. : Gagnon is a polished college righty who doesn't have huge upside but seems like a safe bet to be a back of the rotation starter in the majors.

136 Zach Wilson , OF , Arizona State : Wilson has a big bat but that's it. He is poor at 3B, mediocre at best in LF but has a good approach and knows how to hit.

137 Matt Skole , 3B , Georgia Tech : Skole has more of a line drive swing that a power swing but could hit a dozen or so a year. He could be a lower tier 3B in the majors.

138 Kyle Winkler , RHP , Texas Christian :

139 Taylor Featherstone , 2B , Texas Christian :

140 Kevin Patterson , 1B , Auburn : Patterson is very one dimensional but has game changing power.

141 Taylor Dugas , OF , Alabama : Dugas is a solid hitter, good speed and solid defense. If he can stick in center, it will increase his value. He's a tweener if he can't.

142 Tyler Bremer , P , UC Davis :

143 Cole Cook , RHP , Pepperdine :

144 Nick Martini , OF , Kansas State :

145 Dan Bowman , OF/1B , Coastal Carolina :

146 Steven Brooks , CF , Wake Forest U :

147 Brian Dupra , P , Notre Dame :

148 Drew Stiner , C , Page HS, Sand Springs, Okla. :


149 Scott Woodward , 3B , Coastal Carolina U :
150 Matt Dean, P/SS, The Colony HS, TX

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Oakland Signs Vicmal De La Cruz

Ben Badler over at Baseball America just posted this. De La Cruz has a short quick swing that looks like a nice line drive swing. He has a solid arm for centerfield and would be comparable to a mid to late first round pick to me. Estelion Peguero is the best international free agent still available now that Vicmal is signed.

Minor League Free Agents

Baseball America compiled a list of all of the minor league free agents. Some of the names are recognizable to average fans. Carlos Delgado, Dontrelle Willis, Daniel Cabrera and others who have been major leaguers for varying lengths of time. None of these guys are going to be big pieces for a team, but some of these guys could be on big league rosters and help out.

Here are some that my work has brought to light:

Hainley Statia, SS, could be a solid utility guy in the majors with his glove. He hasn't hit a great deal and is not a speedster, but he's better than paying Nick Punto $5 million.

Marcos Vechionacci, 3B, has always been a good defender at the hot corner, and isn't a poor hitter. He hasn't hit enough to be an MLB 3B, but I think he has the potential to hit enough extra base hits to hold a big league roster spot. He k's too much and his biggest flaw is his health. He is rarely healthy enough to even take the field, but he could pay off for a team that would give him a shot. He could be a Casey McGehee type player if it works out.


RHP James Barthmaier has had injury concerns but once had one of the best curveballs in the minors.

Utility player Scharlon Schoop could fill in at just about any position defensively and that is valuable. That is the vast majority of his value though.


A few others:
Angel Salome, C, was a prospect a few years ago but has stalled out. If his bat gets going, he could be a reserve catcher or a pinch hitter. Pitcher Al Albequerque was a top prospect within the last couple years, mostly because his fastball can reach 99, but hasn't done a lot else. OF Byron Wiley has a lot of tools, but hasn't put it together yet. He has some upside.

There are many guys out there who could help out in the bullpen, potentially. My system predicts that these guys could have MLB value:
Eddie Morlan
Polin Trinidad
Clevan Santeliz
Jose Quintana
Jackson Quezada
James Parr
Blake Jackson

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

The Progression of a Minor League Pitcher

Pitchers
Pitchers are harder to peg because of the high risk of injury at early ages. After the age of 24, pitchers are less likely to get injured. This doesn’t take injury into account but if a pitcher has a shoulder injury, beware. If he has Tommy John surgery, expect him to be back on the mound in 12 months and another 6 months for his stuff to get back to where it needs to be, as long as they rehab properly and everything worked.

16 years old:
All playing in the U.S. are good prospects
Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues is where the majority play.

17 years old:
Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues is where many play.
Rookie Ball is the likely destination if they are in the U.S.
Short Season if a player is ahead of schedule.

18 years old:
Rookie ball is the likely destination after being drafted out of high school.
Short Season if a player is ahead of schedule out of high school.
All full time players above Short Season are good prospects and are more polished than average.


19 years old:
Rookie ball is if a player is lagging a little behind or a team is very cautious.
Short Season after extended spring training is a likely route.
Low A is the most likely destination, whether to start the year here or join after extended spring training.
High A players doing well are on track to be solid starting pitchers.
AA players doing well are on track to be top of the rotation arms.
AAA players will be stars unless it’s just a few innings.

20 years old:
Rookie ball is not as hard on pitchers at 20 as hitters. Age isn’t quite as important, it’s avoiding injury.
Short Season is a likely destination for college draft picks after they sign and high school draft picks from the previous season after they leave extended spring training.
Low A is a likely destination for players on a slightly slower track.
High A is the most frequent assignment for the better prospects.
AA will be the best prospects, especially if they are not failing.
AAA will be great prospects and the best of these will be future stars.

21 years old:
Rookie ball is not a good destination if they are not college draft picks. If they are anything but, it’s not good.
Short Season is a likely destination for college draft picks after they sign. Prospects coming from here are back of the rotation or bullpen guys at most.
Low A may be for players who are struggling with development. They aren’t guaranteed to fail but it’s not a good sign if they aren’t doing real well here. They typically have control issues.
High A is the most likely destination for players who were college picks the previous year and players who are on a slower track to the majors. They still could be top prospects if doing well enough.
AA is the most frequent assignment for the majority of prospects. Players who do well will have a decent chance of being a starting pitcher.
AAA will have the best prospects and up to 70% could be front end of the rotation guys.

22 years old:
Rookie ball will be nothing more than organizational depth.
Short Season won’t offer a lot, but a handful will make it up to the majors.
Low A pitchers are unlikely to be top prospects but may still be useful bullpen arms.
High A pitchers won’t be frontline guys, but have a decent shot to keep going, especially if there control issues are coming around.
AA is the likely assignment. This is where players frequently find out if they are going to cut it. About a third of the best players become good rotation members. The best of these are #3 starters or better.
AAA pitchers have a tough road. If they succeed here, they have a 50% shot at being a top 3 starter.

23 years old:
Rookie ball ignore.
Short Season ignore.
Low A is for players really struggling to turn tools into skills. Most are likely to wash out.
High A players are very unlikely to succeed. Most are organizational players but there are about 5% of these players that will be big leaguers.
AA is the lesser prospects. They are the guys who have struggled with control but have the arm to be a major leaguer. Some could still be starters but most will be relievers, about 1/3 will be big leaguers.
AAA pitchers are close to a final product. They have a 50% chance of being a solid big leaguer.

24 years old:
Rookie ball ignore
Short season ignore
Low A ignore
High A pitchers are very likely to wash out but a few could still be bullpen arms, not many though.
AA pitchers have taken the longer route but still have a 10% chance of making it, mostly as a reliever or back of the rotation starter.
AAA pitchers could step in and help right now. About 40% will be big leaguers.

25 years old:
Rookie ball ignore.
Short season ignore
Low A ignore.
High A pitchers are really unlikely to succeed, but a few still do. Less than 5% will make it.
AA pitchers are unlikely to be anything more than bullpen arms, but as many as 15% could make it.
AAA pitchers still have potential. Some may be back of the rotation guys, others bullpen arms. 30% of these guys could get a chance in the majors.

26, 27 and 28 years old:
Only pitchers in 3A that have opportunity or are dominating will get a shot, but there are still some who make it.

Monday, November 8, 2010

The Progression of a Minor League Hitter

Hitters

16 years old:
All playing in the U.S. are good prospects.
Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues is where the majority play.

17 years old:
Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues is where many play.
Rookie Ball is the likely destination if they are in the U.S.
Short Season if a player is ahead of schedule.

18 years old:
Rookie ball is the likely destination after being drafted out of high school.
Short Season if a player is ahead of schedule out of high school.
All full time players above Short Season are good prospects and are more polished than average.

19 years old:
Rookie ball is if a player is lagging a little behind or a team is very cautious.
Short Season after extended spring training is a likely route.
Low A is the most likely destination, whether to start the year here or join after extended spring training.
High A players doing well are on track to be big league starters.
AA players doing well are on track to be stars.
AAA players will be stars unless it’s just for a few at bats.

20 years old:
Rookie ball is not a good destination unless it’s only for a few AB’s after signing. Most won’t succeed if they are repeating this level at this age.
Short Season is a likely destination for college draft picks after they sign and high school draft picks from the previous season after they leave extended spring training.
Low A is a likely destination for players on a slightly slower track.
High A is the most frequent assignment for the better prospects.
AA will be the best prospects, especially if they are not failing.
AAA will be great prospects and the best of these will be future stars.

21 years old:
Rookie ball is not a good destination unless it’s only for a few AB’s after signing. Players won’t succeed if they are repeating this level at this age.
Short Season is a likely destination for college draft picks after they sign.
Low A may be for players who are struggling with development. They aren’t guaranteed to fail but it’s not a good sign if they aren’t doing real well here.
High A is the most likely destination for players who were college picks the previous year and players who are on a slower track to the majors.
AA is the most frequent assignment for the majority of prospects. Players who do well will have a decent chance of being a big leaguer.
AAA will have the best prospects and half of the players doing well will be good major leaguers.

22 years old:
Rookie ball will be nothing more than organizational players.
Short Season will be nothing more than organizational players.
Low A players are unlikely to be good players.
High A will be players that are slowly progressing. They don’t have a strong chance of making it to the majors, but it isn’t zero, either.
AA is the likely assignment. This is where players frequently find out if they are going to cut it. About a third of the best players become big leaguers. The majority of prospects are here at this age.
AAA is where the best prospects in baseball are at. About 2/3 of the best prospects here will be big leaguers.

23 years old:
Rookie ball ignore.
Short Season ignore.
Low A is for players really struggling to turn tools into skills. Most are likely to wash out.
High A players are very unlikely to succeed. Most are organizational players but there are about 5% of these players that will be big leaguers.
AA is for the lesser prospects. They have taken longer to get here than the cream of the crop. About 1 out of 5 becomes a big leaguer and only the ones with the best performances get more than a cup of coffee.
AAA has the players that have graduated AA and have a 40% chance of being a solid big leaguer.

24 years old:
Rookie ball ignore
Short Season ignore
Low A has players that are organizational players who are often protection for other prospects. Not prospects.
High A is mostly organizational players. Not prospects.
AA has the slow developers, some are repeating AA but if they are doing well in AA, they have about a 10% chance to be a big leaguer.
AAA has the players moving up from AA and repeating AAA. They have a 40% chance of making it to the bigs.


25 and 26 years old:
Rookie ball ignore
Short Season ignore
Low A ignore
High A ignore
AA players are career minor leaguers. A few will make it to the majors but only the best players have a shot.
AAA players are career minor leaguers. A few will make it to the majors but only the best players have a shot.

Players over 27 aren’t prospects and if they make it to the majors, they won’t make much of an impact.

Top 25 Pitchers under 25

The Pitchers
Pitching is very volatile. Injuries occur and wipe players off the map. Some pitchers gain a few MPH to their FB or lose a couple and become different players because of it. Finding players that could be on this list is easy. Deciding on which players are going to end up a cut above is tough. This isn’t necessarily a prediction. It’s just one scenario of how each of these players’ careers could play out.
Here are the pitchers:
1. Felix Hernandez , P , SEA
2. David Price , P , TB
3. Clayton Kershaw , P , LAD
4. Tommy Hanson , P , ATL
5. Phil Hughes , P , NYY
6. Yovani Gallardo , P , MIL
7. Trevor Cahill , P , OAK
8. Aroldis Chapman , P , CIN
9. Stephen Strasburg , P , WSH
10. Julio Teheran , P , ATL
11. Brett Anderson , P , OAK
12. Neftali Feliz , P , TEX
13. Madison Bumgarner , P , SF
14. Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB
15. Jordan Zimmermann , P , WSH
16. Jaime Garcia , P , STL
17. Mat Latos , P , SD
18. Ricky Romero , P , TOR
19. Martin Perez , P , TEX
20. Jarrod Parker , P , ARI
21. Matt Moore , P , TB
22. Brian Matusz , P , BAL
23. Jameson Taillon , P , PIT
24. Chris Tillman , P , BAL
25. Rick Porcello , P , DET

In 2015:
1. Jameson Taillon, RHP, PIT
2. Matt Purke, LHP, Texas Christian
3. Julio Teheran, RHP, ATL
4. Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
5. Martin Perez, LHP, TEX
6. Shelby Miller, RHP, STL
7. Randall Delgado,RH P, ATL
8. Daniel Norris, LHP, Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn
9. Tyler Matzek, LHP, COL
10. Jacob Turner, RHP, DET
11. Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU
12. Adrian Salcedo, RHP, MIN
13. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
14. Lance McCullers, RHP, Jesuit HS, Tampa
15. Karsten Whitson, P, U. of Florida
16. Dylan Covey, P, San Diego
17. AJ Cole, RHP, WSH
18. Manny Banuelos, LHP, NYY
19. Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
20. Zack Wheeler, RHP, SF
21. Stetson Allie, P, PIT
22. John Lamb, P, KC
23. Carlos Perez, P, ATL
24. Henderson Alvarez, RHP, TOR
25. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, MIL

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

The Top 25 Hitters under 25...now and in 2015

I know there have been lists posted about the top 25 under 25 right now. It’s tough to agree on and there is no right answer, it’s just a compilation of names of players that are really good. If you do this at the start of the year and at the end of the year, players will have risen and fallen. Some will be added, some will be removed but most of the same players will be included. This is what I have right now.

Hitters:
1. Evan Longoria , 3B , TB
2. Jason Heyward , RF , ATL
3. Justin Upton , RF , ARI
4. Andrew McCutchen , CF , PIT
5. Troy Tulowitzki , SS , COL
6. Carlos Gonzalez , LF , COL
7. Jesus Montero , C , NYY
8. Buster Posey , C , SF
9. Mike Trout , OF , LAA
10. Michael Stanton , RF , FLA
11. Bryce Harper , OF , WSH
12. Matt Wieters , C , BAL
13. Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC
14. Carlos Santana , C , CLE
15. Colby Rasmus , CF , STL
16. Billy Butler , 1B , KC
17. Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA
18. Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC
19. Wil Myers , C , KC
20. Domonic Brown , OF , PHI
21. Manny Machado , SS , BAL
22. Pedro Alvarez , 3B , PIT
23. Starlin Castro , SS , CHC
24. Jay Bruce , RF , CIN
25. Freddie Freeman , 1B , ATL

With this list there is still a lot of projection. A lot of these players are still in their formative years as MLB players and many are just starting to show their potential in the minors. #17, Dustin Ackley, has struggled in his pro debut. The conversion to 2B has caused him to hit less than he should, but he was still promoted to AAA by Seattle and did well in after his poor April start and is hitting well in the Arizona Fall League currently. No one is sure if he will succeed or not, but I still think he's one of the best young players in baseball.

As hard as the current top 25 list is to compile, the top 25 for 2015 is tougher. This is sheer projection and if I get 5 from each right, I will be happy, but I hope for better. My guess here is that there will be 6 or 7 players on each list that will be drafted and signed in 2013 and 2014 and I don’t have a lot of names for that far out. I’ve seen some video of guys out that far, but it is a total reach to name those guys. I went with guys that are recent draft picks instead. I like to inform my readers of names to watch for and this is one way I can do it. These are the guys that I think could be the best of the best up and coming players. You have probably heard of many of these guys, but this is how I project them to be in 5 years.

1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice University
Where he came from: Rendon will play the 2011 season at Rice University and will likely be the 1st overall pick in the 2011 draft by the Pirates.
Why he’s here: Rendon has huge power and that is what sets him apart. His numbers at Rice have been elite and I can only see that continuing.
Where he’s headed: Rendon will debut in 2013 in the Majors and make his mark with the Pirates, I assume, sending Pedro Alvarez to 1B. Rendon will stick at 3B and be the next stud 3B after Evan Longoria. He has solid tools all around. He could hit .300 with 25-30 HR's and be an impact bat.

2. Jesus Montero, C/1B, NYY
Where he came from: Montero was signed out of Venezuela in 2006 for $1.65 million.
Why he’s here: Montero has great contact ability and great power. He started slowly this year but still hit 21 HR's as a 20 Year old in AAA. He had a slash line of .289/.353/.517 and that would be stunning, even for the Pacific Coast League.
Where he’s headed: Montero is a future 1B or DH in the long run and will debut in 2011. He will be one of the best hitters in the majors for years to come. He could hit .320 and hit 40 HR's at his peak.

3. Mike Trout, CF, LAA
Where he came from: Trout was a 1st round draft pick, 25th overall in 2009 out of high school in New Jersey.
Why he’s here: Trout has the physical ability to be a Hall of Fame type talent. His current skills show that he could reach that ceiling. He hit .362/.454/.526 in the MWL before being promoted to the California League and holding his own as an 18 year old.
Where he’s headed: Trout will debut in CF for the Angels in 2011 and be a star. He can hit, run and play defense. He will be one of the most exciting players in the league when he gets there. He could be a .300+ hitter with 20 HR's and 40 SB as a gold glove caliber CF.

4. Bryce Harper, RF, WSH
Where he came from: Harper took an unique route getting a GED to opt out of his last two years in high school to go Junior College in Nevada. He dominated and was drafted 1st overall by the Washington Nationals in the 2010 draft.
Why he’s here: Harper's power is off the charts. No one that I can remember has had his power at his age. His other skills are yet to be determined at the pro level, but his defense should be above average in RF. His arm will be plus and his speed will be average. His biggest weakness is contact. He will strike out a lot.
Where he’s headed: Harper will debut in 2013 or sooner and will hit a ton of HR's. He will be another cornerstone in the rebuilding Nats team. He will hit .260-.270 with 40-50 HR's and play very good defense in RF. Even if he has an attitude that comes with continual success, he is still a franchise player.

5. Mike Stanton, RF, FLA
Where he came from: Stanton was a 2nd round pick in 2007 by the Marlins out of high school in California.
Why he’s here: Like the players ahead of him, Stanton has big power. He may be the only player here who could rival Harper's power, if not exceed it. Stanton is not a one trick pony. He is a stellar athlete and will hold his own in RF. He hit 43 HR's combined between AA and the majors after hitting 28 last season and 39 in his first full pro season.
Where he’s headed: Debuting in 2010 and hitting 22 HR's in his rookie season, this is only the start. Stanton looks like he will be an elite HR hitter for years to come, with 40 HR's being the norm and the ceiling nearly limitless.

6. Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC
Where he came from: Hosmer was a 1st round pick, 3rd overall to the Royals in 2008 out of high school in Florida.
Why he’s here: Hosmer can hit. He had some vision issues last season and had Lasik surgery before the 2010 season and it really helped. 72 of his 176 hits were for extra bases and he hit .338/.406/.571 between High A ball and AA. He actually hit for more power in AA to end the season and that was one of the biggest knocks against him.
Where he’s headed: Hosmer should land in Kansas City in 2012 and could be a gold glove 1B. He has the bat to hit .300+ with 20 HR's and his power will grow as he does. He even could steal a dozen bases due to his good instincts.

7. Wil Myers, RF, KC
Where he came from: Myers was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft out of high school in North Carolina.
Why he’s here: Myers can hit a ton. He hit well in the pitcher friendly Midwest League and hit even better in the Carolina League with a .346/.453/.512 slash line. He is a good defender behind the plate but will need time to develop there. I don't think his bat will wait.
Where he’s headed: Myers is headed for RF, where he can take advantage of his plus arm, good athletecism and he will hit enough for the position. He will make it to KC in 2013 and will be a .280 hitter with 25 HR power.

8. Brett Lawrie, 2B, MIL
Where he came from: Lawrie was drafted in the 1st round, 16th overall in 2008 out of high school in British Colombia.
Why he’s here: Lawrie has hit well since his debut. Position has always been a concern for him and still is, but he has played adequately at 2B and has the athletecism to improve to average. His hitting ability and speed are his main assets.
Where he’s headed: Lawrie should debut in Milwaukee in 2011 and make an impact immediately. He is deceptively fast and will steal 20+ bases, hit .270 and hit a lot of doubles along with 10-15 HR's. This will make him one of the better offensive 2B in the league.

9. Manny Machado, SS, BAL
Where he came from: Machado was chosen 3rd overall by the Orioles in the 2010 draft.
Why he’s here: Machado has the skills to be an offensive shortstop and stay there. He may outgrow the position, but many say he can stay there. His power will be above average, as will his hitting ability, for a shortstop. His arm is strong and his speed is average.
Where he’s headed: Machado will debut in Baltimore in 2014 and step in as an offensive SS, which has been a strength for the organization over the years. He won't be Cal but a player similar to Miguel Tejada with less power is a good comparison. He'll be a .300 hitter with a pile of doubles and 20 HR's and a dozen steals.

10. Yorman Rodriguez, RF, CIN
Where he came from: Rodriguez was signed out of Venezuela in 2008 for $2.5 Million.
Why he’s here: Rodriguez looked a little shaky in his debut in 2009 but that was expected a a 16 year old in a new culture facing much older competition. This year he cut his K's down a ton and hit .339/.361/.456 while facing much older competition. He is an above average defensive outfielder who could stay in CF or be well above average in RF. He has a ton of potential with the bat and his power will come.
Where he’s headed: Rodriguez will be the best prospect in baseball heading into 2015 and will make his big league debut. He will be either a power hitting RF or a well rounded CF, it depends on how quickly he grows, but either way, he will be really good.

11. Austin Maddox, C/1B/3B, University of Florida
Where he came from: Maddox was a 37th round pick in 2009 and will be a 1st rounder in 2012.
Why he’s here: Maddox has great power and will have to move to 1B down the line, but he will have the power for it. Maddox hit 17 HR's in his freshman season and that is just scrapping the surface. Maddox will not blow anyone away with his defensive prowess, but he hits the ball hard every time he hits it.
Where he’s headed: Maddox will debut in 2015 and will hit for power right away. He will strike out a lot and won't walk enough for some but he could be an elite hitting 1B for a long time.

12. Gary Sanchez, C, NYY
Where he came from: Sanchez signed out of the Dominican in 2009 for $3 million.
Why he’s here: Sanchez has great hitting ability and showed very good power in his first pro season. His power was very impressive hitting .329/.393/.543 in the GCL before being promoted to the New York Penn League and hitting .278/.333/.426 against much older competition. He even gunned down 51% of would be base stealers after the promotion. He needs plenty of work behind the plate but he is very young.
Where he’s headed: Sanchez will make his debut in 2014 after being one of the top prospects in all the minors. His catching skills will be average but his bat is what will get him to the top of the game. Sanchez' will force the move of Montero to 1B permanently and the Yankees will have a Catcher who can hit .300 and 25 HR's to go along with Montero at 1st.

13. Miguel Sano, RF, MIN
Where he came from: Sano signed out of the Dominican for $3.15 million.
Why he’s here: Sano is a long lean hitter who can really hit. He dominated the Dominican Summer League, as he should have, and was promoted to the GCL where he hit .307/.379/.491. Sano is just scrapping the surface of his power potential and his contact ability is better than I expected so far.
Where he’s headed: Sano will debut in 2015 after being the 2nd best prospect in the off season. Minnesota will have a hitter capable of playing an above average RF with 40 HR potential even if he strikes out 25% of the time.

14. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, PHI
Where he came from: Singleton slid to the 8th round in 2009 and signed for a mere $200,000.
Why he’s here: While Singleton had a really good season in the Gulf Coast League, he essentially replicated it in the South Atlantic League this year hitting .290/.393/.479.
Where he’s headed: Oddly, Singleton may be headed to LF. He should make it to the Majors in 2014 and with Ryan Howard signed thru 2016, Singleton may need to head to LF. He is athletic enough to play the outfield. His offensive potential is big. He could be a .300/.380/.550 kind of guy in the majors at his peak but may need a few years int he majors before he reaches it.

15. Travis Harrison, 3B/OF, Tustin HS, CA
Where he came from: Harrison is a high schooler in California eligible for the 2011 draft.
Why he’s here: Harrison swings stiff some times but so did Harmon Killebrew. He is the best power hitting prep in the 2011 class. He's a good athlete so his mechanical issues should get ironed out quickly.
Where he’s headed: The top prospect still in the Minors on this list, Harrison should debut in 2016. At his peak, he should be a .280/.380/.515 kind of guy along with playing a solid LF. If he could stick at 3B, it would move him up this list, but I don't think he will.

16. Max Kepler, LF, MIN
Where he came from: Kepler signed for $750,000 out of Germany in 2009.
Why he’s here: Kepler's entrance to baseball on this side of the pond went very well. He hit .286/.346/.343 while showing fantastic athleticism and a lot of skill from someone who has never faced great competition on a regular basis.
Where he’s headed: On the opposite side of the Outfield from Sano will be an amazing athlete in Kepler. He could play CF but he'll be an above average LF. He will hit .300 and have 15-20 HR power and maybe more with age. He is a superior athlete and could steal a 20 bases with ease. Kepler could really help in opening up baseball in Europe, showing that the sport is not just out national pasttime, but an international pasttime.

17. Austin Wilson, RF, Stanford University
Where he came from: Wilson could have been a top 10 pick in the 2010 draft if not for a solid commitment to Stanford. The Cardinals rolled the dice on him, but he opted to choose the Stanford Cardinals.
Why he’s here: Wilson is an athlete that is really projectable. He is a muscular hitter with a ton of power potential. The Stanford swing could hinder him but I think he can succeed anyway.
Where he’s headed: Wilson has a long swing and will strike out a bunch, but he will play really good RF defense with a plus arm. He will be a .260-.280 hitter with 20 HR potential. The only reason I don't project more is the history of Stanford hitters. If you really like him you could project another Dave Winfield.

18. Jaff Decker, LF, SD
Where he came from: Decker was drafted 42nd overall by the Padres out of high school in Arizona.
Why he’s here: Decker reached base over half of the time in his rookie league debut in 2008. He followed that up with a great season in the Midwest League in 2009. This year he struggled with injuries but had a very good second half to get to .262/.374/.500. The owner of a great plate approach, he will always reach base at a very good rate. His biggest knock is his weight and athletic ability.
Where he’s headed: Decker will never be known for his defense, but should be an average LF with work. The bat is his calling card. He should hit .300/.400/.525 annually.

19. Jackie Bradley, CF, South Carolina
Where he came from: Bradley will be one of the first bats off the board in the 2011 draft out of South Carolina.
Why he’s here: Bradley had an exceptional College World Series last year and could have 5 average or better tools. Bradley's main issue tight now is his power. He had some wrist problems last year, so he still has a chance to put that issue to bed.
Where he’s headed: Bradley could be an above average CF with the ability to hit .300, steal 25 bases and hit 15 HR's. A better version of Denard Span is what I envision, and that is not a knock against Span.

20. Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET
Where he came from: Castellanos was drafted in the supplemental round in 2010 and set a record for the highest signing bonus with $3.45 million.
Why he’s here: Castellanos is as polished of a bat that was available in the draft this year but slid due to high bonus demands. He doesn't have hughe current power but projects to hit for average and power while playing an average or better 3B.
Where he’s headed: He will likely debut in 2015 with the Tigers and have grown into his power by then. He could be a perennial .300/.380/.500 hitting 3B.

21. Nick Franklin, SS, SEA
Where he came from: Franklin was the 27th overall pick in the 2009 draft out of high school in Florida.
Why he’s here: Franklin was drafted as a defensive SS with minimal power. Then he came out and hit 23 HR's in the Midwest League, which is no small feat. He played a solid SS and stole 25 bases. At 6'1", 170 he should be stay at SS.
Where he’s headed: Franklin will always strike out a lot but could end up being a solid average defender at SS. He could hit be a .270/.320/.480 kind of guy.

22. Matt Davidson, 3B, ARZ
Where he came from: Davidson was taken 35th overall out of high school in California by the Diamondbacks.
Why he’s here: Davidson is athletic enough to play 3B and hit .289/.371/.504 in the Midwest League.
Where he’s headed: Davidson will be a power hitting 3B with at least average defensive skills. I expect him to be a .270 hitter with 25 HR's in a good year, but he could break out and be more.

23. Jake Marisnick, CF, TOR
Where he came from: Marisnick was taken in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft by the Blue Jays out of a high school in California.
Why he’s here: Marisnick signed too late last year to play in rookie ball but debuted in the GCL this season hitting .287/.373/.459. Not amazing numbers but the tools are there.
Where he’s headed: Marisnick could be an above average defensive CF with the ability to hit .280/.350/.440 and steal 30 bases.

24. Kenny Diekroger, SS/3B, Stanford
Where he came from: Diekroeger was drafted in the 2nd round by the Rays but couldn't be swayed from Stanford. He'll be eligible for the 2012 draft.
Why he’s here: As a Freshman he hit .356/.392/.491 as a freshman at Stanford and hit .324/.354/.446 this summer in the New England Collegeiate League.
Where he’s headed: Deikroeger will be a plus defensive 3B with a good bat. He should hit .300 with a lot of doubles and 15 HR's. The doubles should turn into HR's as he matures.

25. Max Stassi, C, OAK
Where he came from: Stassi was a 4th round pick in 2009 out of high school in California. The A's paid him $1.5 million.
Why he’s here: Stassi is a fantastic defender behind the dish already at 19 and is one of the better defensive catchers in the minors. Beyond that, he hit 21 doubles and 13 HR's in the pitcher friendly Midwest League. He struck out a lot but he is still ahead of the curve.
Where he’s headed: High school catchers are about as hard to project as anything in baseball, but I don't see any reason why Stassi can't be a power hitting, run stopping, rotation leading catcher.