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Showing posts from November, 2010

Legend for my Reports

MiLB Prospects

From the top, moving right: MiLB/MLB defines whether a player is a major or minor leaguer. Next is the players first name, then last name. The players current position, then the players projected position. Finally is his estimated time of arrival in the majors.

Under Vitals is the players age as of 4-1-11. Going down the list is the players birthday, the way he swings, the way he throws, his height, his weight and finally his body size. This is simply his weight divided by height. It is a way of measuring if a player is maxed out physically, very skinny(Chris Sale) or kind of fat (Dayan Viciedo).

To the right is scores. The first 2 are floor and ceiling. They are based on this:
Hitters Pitchers
10 All-time great All-time great
9 Superstar Ace
8 Occasional All-Star #1 or #2, Closer
7 Starter-Solid Regular #3(7.6), #4(7.3),#5 (7.0), Set up man(7.0)
6 Part-time player swingman/ 7th inning guy
5 bench warmer 12th pitcher
4 top level minor leaguer top level minor leaguer
3 …

MiLB Prospects Reports to help you win in your fantasy league.

As you guys know, I hope, I have been working on a database of players and rankings for a few years now. This year I posted a report featuring the Futures Game Roster and information on each of the players in it. This was the first version of my report. I have adapted it a little an recently I posted the Rule 5 Draft Report
featuring many of the players available in the Rule 5 draft. They aren't the best prospects in baseball but there are better ones this year than last year.

That is the most recent version of my database and I would like to make this available to you guys. I've put in thousands of hours on compiling this information so I can't offer it for free. My plan is to offer specialized reports to give you more in depth information about the players that you are interested in. You send me a list, and I'll send you a .pdf report on the players that you want. If you want the top 20 propsects for your favorite team, or the top 100 starting pitchers, I can do that…

Rule 5 Draft

This season's rule 5 draft is more prospect heavy than it has been the last couple years to me.
Aneury Rodriguez, P, TB had good control and put up good results while being young for his league. His strikeouts could increase with time and I really like him as a potential pick.
Jose Pirela, SS, NYY showed he could hit the ball to the gaps and run and was still young for the Florida State League. I think he could hit enough to be the last player on a roster if someone is looking for a future SS.
Luis Jimenez, 3B, LAA could hit enough to play part time at 3B and could have enough bat to hit a few extra base hits.
Billy Rowell, OF/1B/3B, BAL was a 1st round pick that got Barry Bonds comparisons out of high school and still has big power. He just can't hit the ball frequently. He is likely relegated to 1B but could play in the OF a little and still has potential. I don't believe he can be a future big league regular, but if anyone has all-star potential in this group, it coul…

Values of players

As I posted in the Victor Martinez post, I have 3 different values for each player. The top 10 prospects who are the "safest" are:

Mike Minor , P , ATL 61.18
Dayan Viciedo , 3B , CHW 50.39
Jesus Montero , C , NYY 49.54
Chris Sale , P , CHW 47.88
Jenrry Mejia , P , NYM 44.61
Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC 37.95
Andrew Oliver , P , DET 37.92
Brett Lawrie , 2B , MIL 37.73
Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA 36.89
Mike Trout , OF , LAA 36.33

This is what I feel the current value of these players would be on an open market.

The top 10 for teams who want to win now, a future earnings number with a % of success factored in:
Jesus Montero , C , NYY 56.82
Aroldis Chapman , P , CIN 56.55
Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA 56.35
Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC 55.94
Julio Teheran , P , ATL 55.02
Mike Trout , OF , LAA 54.65
Bryce Harper , OF , WSH 53.29
Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB 50.16
Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC 49.17
Domonic Brown , OF , PHI 49.13

The top 10 for Win Later, essentially a potential future earnings number:
B…

Victor Martinez signs with Detroit

Martinez signed with Detroit today for 4 years/50 million dollars. I've posted a few things over the past few years trying to estimate fair value of players. One formula I came up with overrated mediocre prospects, another only worked for major leaguers but now I think I have one that will work for any professional player.
I have Victor Martinez worth 23.46 million using the safest rating. If a team that is rebuilding would have signed him, the most they should have paid is 22.70 million and a team looking to win now should have went up to 63.70 million.
I think the Tigers giving VMart 50 million is a fair deal for him and for the Tigers.
Just for another reference the Cincinatti Reds signed Dontrelle Willis to a minor league contract today. His safe number is 1.04 million. The win now value is kind of ridiculous at 17.43, but he could be worth that if he would ever return to the level he once was. The 3rd value is 1.04 million. I call it the win later value, which essentially …

2011 Draft Top 150 Prospects

For more information, check out MLB Bonus Baby, my draft blog thru SB Nation.
I don't have write ups for all these guys yet, but I'm getting there.

My Rank Name Last Name , POS , Schools Report

1 Anthony Rendon , 3B , Rice : Rendon has all the skills to be a great MLB 3B. Great power, good defense, strong arm. Easily the best prospect in the 2011 draft. Could be a top-tier 3B in the years to come.

2 Matt Purke , LHP , Texas Christian : Purke has a fastball that can reach the mid 90's and a nasty slider that are both plus pitches now. He has good command and poise. A future ace.

3 Gerrit Cole , RHP , UCLA : Cole has a great arm and can run it up to 98. He has a sharp curve and has a workhorse build. His only drawback is his command.

4 Sonny Gray , RHP , Vanderbilt : Gray has front of the rotation stuff, but is a short righthander. I don't care because he has the stuff and attitude to succeed and he could do it quickly after he is signed.

5 Daniel Norris , LHP , Scien…

Oakland Signs Vicmal De La Cruz

Ben Badler over at Baseball America just posted this. De La Cruz has a short quick swing that looks like a nice line drive swing. He has a solid arm for centerfield and would be comparable to a mid to late first round pick to me. Estelion Peguero is the best international free agent still available now that Vicmal is signed.

Minor League Free Agents

Baseball America compiled a list of all of the minor league free agents. Some of the names are recognizable to average fans. Carlos Delgado, Dontrelle Willis, Daniel Cabrera and others who have been major leaguers for varying lengths of time. None of these guys are going to be big pieces for a team, but some of these guys could be on big league rosters and help out.

Here are some that my work has brought to light:

Hainley Statia, SS, could be a solid utility guy in the majors with his glove. He hasn't hit a great deal and is not a speedster, but he's better than paying Nick Punto $5 million.

Marcos Vechionacci, 3B, has always been a good defender at the hot corner, and isn't a poor hitter. He hasn't hit enough to be an MLB 3B, but I think he has the potential to hit enough extra base hits to hold a big league roster spot. He k's too much and his biggest flaw is his health. He is rarely healthy enough to even take the field, but he could pay off for a team that would g…

The Progression of a Minor League Pitcher

Pitchers
Pitchers are harder to peg because of the high risk of injury at early ages. After the age of 24, pitchers are less likely to get injured. This doesn’t take injury into account but if a pitcher has a shoulder injury, beware. If he has Tommy John surgery, expect him to be back on the mound in 12 months and another 6 months for his stuff to get back to where it needs to be, as long as they rehab properly and everything worked.

16 years old:
All playing in the U.S. are good prospects
Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues is where the majority play.

17 years old:
Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues is where many play.
Rookie Ball is the likely destination if they are in the U.S.
Short Season if a player is ahead of schedule.

18 years old:
Rookie ball is the likely destination after being drafted out of high school.
Short Season if a player is ahead of schedule out of high school.
All full time players above Short Season are good prospects and are more polished than average.


19 years o…

The Progression of a Minor League Hitter

Hitters

16 years old:
All playing in the U.S. are good prospects.
Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues is where the majority play.

17 years old:
Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues is where many play.
Rookie Ball is the likely destination if they are in the U.S.
Short Season if a player is ahead of schedule.

18 years old:
Rookie ball is the likely destination after being drafted out of high school.
Short Season if a player is ahead of schedule out of high school.
All full time players above Short Season are good prospects and are more polished than average.

19 years old:
Rookie ball is if a player is lagging a little behind or a team is very cautious.
Short Season after extended spring training is a likely route.
Low A is the most likely destination, whether to start the year here or join after extended spring training.
High A players doing well are on track to be big league starters.
AA players doing well are on track to be stars.
AAA players will be stars unless it’s just for a few at bats.

2…

Top 25 Pitchers under 25

The Pitchers
Pitching is very volatile. Injuries occur and wipe players off the map. Some pitchers gain a few MPH to their FB or lose a couple and become different players because of it. Finding players that could be on this list is easy. Deciding on which players are going to end up a cut above is tough. This isn’t necessarily a prediction. It’s just one scenario of how each of these players’ careers could play out.
Here are the pitchers:
1. Felix Hernandez , P , SEA
2. David Price , P , TB
3. Clayton Kershaw , P , LAD
4. Tommy Hanson , P , ATL
5. Phil Hughes , P , NYY
6. Yovani Gallardo , P , MIL
7. Trevor Cahill , P , OAK
8. Aroldis Chapman , P , CIN
9. Stephen Strasburg , P , WSH
10. Julio Teheran , P , ATL
11. Brett Anderson , P , OAK
12. Neftali Feliz , P , TEX
13. Madison Bumgarner , P , SF
14. Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB
15. Jordan Zimmermann , P , WSH
16. Jaime Garcia , P , STL
17. Mat Latos , P , SD
18. Ricky Romero , P , TOR
19. Martin Perez , P , TEX
20. Jarrod Parker , P , ARI
21. Matt Moore ,…

The Top 25 Hitters under 25...now and in 2015

I know there have been lists posted about the top 25 under 25 right now. It’s tough to agree on and there is no right answer, it’s just a compilation of names of players that are really good. If you do this at the start of the year and at the end of the year, players will have risen and fallen. Some will be added, some will be removed but most of the same players will be included. This is what I have right now.

Hitters:
1. Evan Longoria , 3B , TB
2. Jason Heyward , RF , ATL
3. Justin Upton , RF , ARI
4. Andrew McCutchen , CF , PIT
5. Troy Tulowitzki , SS , COL
6. Carlos Gonzalez , LF , COL
7. Jesus Montero , C , NYY
8. Buster Posey , C , SF
9. Mike Trout , OF , LAA
10. Michael Stanton , RF , FLA
11. Bryce Harper , OF , WSH
12. Matt Wieters , C , BAL
13. Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC
14. Carlos Santana , C , CLE
15. Colby Rasmus , CF , STL
16. Billy Butler , 1B , KC
17. Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA
18. Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC
19. Wil Myers , C , KC
20. Domonic Brown , OF , PHI
21. Manny Machado , SS , BAL
22. Pedro Alv…