Saturday, July 31, 2010

Podcast

Well, it looks like a lot of you would like to hear an MiLB prospects podcast. I'll do one in the upcoming week to see how it works. I'll let you know when it's available and where to go.

If you have any questions for me to address on the podcast, let me know here, via formspring, email me at garrioch13@gmail.com or twitter @milbprospects.

Right now, I'm looking at trade deadline prospect movement for a topic.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Northwoods Action

Tonight, I went to a Northwoods league game between the Mankato Moondogs and the Rochester Honkers.
Mike Strong, a junior LHP out of Oklahoma State and drafted by Oakland 665th overall, dominated Moondogs hitters with a 90 MPH FB and little else. He sat 89-90 touching 91 occasionally. He threw a few decent changes and his curveball was nothing special but he didn't need much. He looked about 6', 175 or so, pretty skinny. He looks like he could be a decent pro pitcher as a reliever in the long run. Tonight, he looked like an ace, not giving up a run on 3 hits and K'ing 10 in 7 IP.
Alex Blackford, a RHP out of Arizona State, thru 6 2/3 IP, struck out 9 and gave up 2 runs, one on a HR by Danny Pulfer, a sophomore out of Oregon. He hit it well over the LF wall, probably 350' or so. Blackford looked about 5'11, 180 to me.
He sat 87-89 in the early innings with a heavy fastball and an average curveball. The CB could be a plus pitch someday if he refines control and gains consistency. I didn't see much of a change from him. In the 5th inning he started to loose some control before his velocity dipped in the 6th. He sat 85-87 the rest of the way. I like Blackford and see some potential in him. It will be interesting to see how he does in the next 2 years at ASU.
Both of these guys look like pro ball players to me.
None of the hitters I saw tonight blew me away although Pulfer looked good, at least on the HR. Robby Ort showed a good arm in RF, gunning down a runner trying to advance to 3rd. Josef Terry made a nice one handed grab while a runner ran in fromt of him and threw out the hitter at 1st. That was a nice play.
Overall the talent level was good although Sam Sellman, the best talent for Mankato that I am aware of, throws tomorrow. The best talent on Rochester(that I'm aware of) is their backup Catcher, Geno Escalante did not play.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Funny...

Just thought I'd check in on the site tonight and see if anyone had any comments on my futures game pdf, or anything else for that matter. I scrolled down to the comments passing the MLB Trade Rumors widget and chuckled.

Mike Trout unlikely to be traded. Holy Shit! Do you mean that the Angels aren't looking to ditch that pile of crap. I'm just shocked that it wasn't followed by Minnesota Twins aren't looking to trade Joe Mauer or Nationals not looking to move Strasburg. That isn't a rumor, that is just something to write about. Well it provided something for me to write about. Well, it doesn't help that I am writing about it, but I have a blog therefore I have a voice and I will talk about whatever bugs me and whatever you guys want to hear.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Futures Game Roster

I know the Futures Game has been played and I would have like to have posted this prior, but I didn't have the time. This is a glimpse of what I'm working on for every prospect in the minors. This doesn't have any write ups at all but it gives you an idea of what my prospect database looks like and what my book will contain.

The link below is to google docs where I uploaded it and you can download it for free. Let me know how it works, if you like it, and if you don't..some suggestions on how it could be more useful.

Thanks and enjoy.


Futures Game Players

Monday, July 12, 2010

Tired...uninspired

I haven't posted in a while and I apoligize, but I've had a rough week or so. My wife and I have both been ill. I missed all week at school and had to bust my ass to get an A on one test and a B in another. I don't know how I pulled those out, but I'm not gonna complain. I still haven't watched the Futures Game and have read nothing about it due to that fact. My house got hammered by hail a few weeks ago and I spent the majority of my day chasing down contractors and the person in charge of writing checks to the wrong people. Then I got to talk to a bank about cashing it, then I had to talk to the people at the mortgage company, yada yada yada....

What a shitty day. Maybe tomorrow I will have time to watch the futures game and then I may feel inspired. The USA collegiate national team was named today. Here it is if you are interested. I might write about it a little more when I get a chance also.

But now, back to accounting...

Monday, July 5, 2010

Cliff Lee and the Twins

Cliff Lee is making about 9 million this season and I am sure he is set on hitting free agency as a 32 year old veteran who has shown he can pitch very well in either league. This will make him a rental for the second half of 2010 for a team to make a run at the World Series.
My favorite team is the Minnesota Twins and they are looking at acquiring the Lefty to form a formidable playoff rotation and snap out of their mid-season floundering.
The offer I just heard is Aaron Hicks and Wilson Ramos for Cliff Lee.
Aaron Hicks was my 36th best prospect last off-season and Ramos was 85th. I think this is a very solid package for Cliff Lee. In my system, the package is worth 4.5 million more than Lee and the Twins only get Lee as a rental.
As a Twins fan, I am excited to see them acquiring big league talent to make a run but that is a little excessive. I would give Ramos, but Gibson, Hicks and Revere are untouchable to me.
Digging deeper, Cliff Lee will be a Type A free agent. This means when, not if, he signs with a team in the off season the Twins will acuire the 1st round pick of the team that signs him and a supplemental pick. The same goes for Seattle if they hang onto Lee. In essence, Seattle will have to recieve more than 2 first round picks in value to trade him.
If the Twins trade for him, it will be setting a new precedent for the franchise. Not only will they be picking up 4.5 million in salary but they paid a signing bonus to Ramos when he signed out of Venezuela and 1.8 million to Hicks in 2008 as a 1st round draft pick. When Lee leaves via free agency, they will get 2 first round picks and that will cost 2-4 million more to sign them. It would end up costing them about 8 million dollars or so, Ramos and Hicks for half a season of Lee, plus 2 future picks. If the Twins don't make a good run in the playoffs and 2 good picks it could really set the franchise back. Maybe my thinking is too safe but that is how the Twins taught me...
Sorry if this bounces around, I didn't proof read it or anything. Just random thoughts put to words on this blog.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

An early version of the Top 50 prospects for 2011 Draft

Rank Name Last Name , POS , Schools
1 Anthony Rendon , 3B , Rice
2 Matt Purke , LHP , Texas Christian
3 Gerrit Cole , RHP , UCLA
4 Taylor Jungmann , RHP , Texas
5 Sonny Gray , RHP , Vanderbilt
6 Daniel Norris , LHP , Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn.
7 Travis Harrison , OF/3B , Tustin (Calif.) HS
8 Christian Lopes , SS , Edison HS, Huntington Beach, Calif.
9 Jackie Bradley , OF , South Carolina
10 Trevor Bauer , RHP , UCLA
11 Dylan Bundy , RHP , Owasso (Okla.) HS
12 Archie Bradley , RHP , Muskogee (Okla.) HS
13 Dwight Smith , OF , McIntosh HS, Peachtree City, Ga.
14 Dillon Howard , RHP , Searcy (Ark.) HS
15 Dillon Maples , RHP , Pinecrest HS, Southern Pines, N.C.
16 Alex Meyer , RHP , Kentucky
17 Henry Owens , LHP , Edison HS, Huntington Beach, Calif.
18 Jack Armstrong , RHP , Vanderbilt
19 Harold Martinez , 3B , Miami
20 Bubba Starling , RHP , Gardner Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan.
21 Danny Hultzen , LHP , Virginia
22 Joshua Tobias , 3B , Southeast Guilford Greensboro NC
23 Dante Bichette , SS , Orangewood Christian, FL
24 Ricky Oropesa , 3B , Southern California
25 Brett Mooneyham , LHP , Stanford
26 Joe Ross , P , Bishop O'Dowd HS, CA
27 Deshorn Lake , RHP , Menchville HS, Newport News, Va.
28 Christian Montgomery , RHP , Lawrence Central HS, Indianapolis
29 Zach Cone , OF , Georgia
30 Michael Kelly , RHP , West Boca HS
31 Jason Esposito , 3B , Vanderbilt
32 Mikie Mahtook , OF , Louisiana State
33 Logan Verrett , RHP , Baylor
34 Noe Ramirez , P , Cal State Fullerton
35 Preston Tucker , 1B , Florida
36 Matt Barnes , RHP , Connecticut
37 Levi Michael , 2B , North Carolina
38 B.A. Vollmuth , SS , Southern Mississippi
39 Mitchell Lambson , LHP , Arizona State
40 Alex Dickerson , OF , Indiana
41 Alex Panteliodis , LHP , Florida
42 Daniel Camarena , LHP/CF , Cathedral Catholic HS CA
43 Taylor Dugas , OF , Alabama
44 George Springer , OF , Connecticut
45 Francisco Lindor , SS , Montverde (Fla.) Academy
46 Andrew Suarez , LHP , Columbus HS, Miami
47 Tyler Beede , RHP , Lawrence Academy Auburn MA
48 John Stilson , rhp , Texas A&M
49 Tyler Greene , SS , Roswell (Ga.) HS
50 Nick Ramirez , 1B , Cal State Fullerton

J2 signings

Renato Nunez, a 3B for Oakland is the biggest name so far. He signed with Oakland for 2.2 million dollars. His biggest asset is his bat. He will need some time to grow into his power, but he has a nice swing and doubles should come easy to him.

Yoel Araujo is an athletic CF who signed with the Rays for 800k. He has a big body structure and will probably end up as a corner OF'er. He has a good bat and that is his best tool.

Some other players have signed Danry Vazquez, OF,DET(1 millionish) and Jose Tovar, LHP, COL for 350K.

Kinda slow to start but that is the way the international signings go.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

2011 draft

Andy Seiler and Pat Hickey recently posted their top 50 over at MLB Bonus baby.
I am currently working on mine, but I don't have enough info on some of the high school guys yet to have a firm ranking. I'd like to be confident when I post it and I'm not there yet. If you want to know some names check out their site and my link for 2011 and 2012 draft names to watch. Keep an eye out for my top 50-100. I will post a link on the right when I get it posted.

July 2nd is just an hour or so away

and I am excited this year. This is the first year I have researched J2 guys before the date to this depth. Most times it's just the top 10 or so, this season I have a list of 64 guys I expect to sign in the near future.
I'll keep you guys up to date here about signings and give you a little glimpse of a report of these guys, if I have seen them or have a good report.

Trade analysis

Bengie Molina was traded to Texas to fill in for the lack of progress by the young trio of catcher in Texas. The Rangers gave up plenty giving up Michael Main. He has the potential to be a #1 starter if not an ace but it was a fairly even trade. Chris Ray actually has more value than main in a trade, as he has a higher likelihood of being a back of the rotation guy or a middle reliever.
Molina has a value of 16.72 with a 54% likelihood of continuing to be a solid big league starter. Main and Ray combine to have a 52% likelihood of being solid big league players with Main having the potential to be much more. I see this as a fair trade as long as some money goes to Texas. My numbers suggest it should be about $2.5 million, but that seems a little too much to me.

The other recent trade was between Seattle and Cleveland. Russell Branyan is headed back to Seattle and Ezequiel Carrera and Juan Diaz head to Cleveland. Casey Kotchman hasn’t hit for Seattle at all and Branyan could still push 30 HR’s, even in Safeco.
Branyan is a starter on some teams and could be a solid starter, which he should be in Seattle. He has a 43% chance to be a solid starter. Ezequiel Carrera is a solid OF’er who hasn’t fared well in AAA this season. I expected him to have a better year than he has. I believe he could be solid starter someday, but is likely to just be a 4th OF’er. Juan Diaz, a SS in HiA ball has had a pretty good season but wasn’t on my top 2000 list, therefore I don't have ratings on him. If I would he would project to be a utility player and have a liklihood of 25% or so. He will be on my list this year and could be a top 30 prospect for Cleveland. This deal, again, is pretty even. This is definitely not another Carlos Santana for Casey Blake deal, though. Sorry Indian fans.