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Showing posts from June, 2010

Severe weather = college stat analysis

Well, tonight our house got hammered by hail and now I need to have the house resided...goody.
But while the severe was decimating my house, I was working on compiling some college stats and trying a formula on them to keep me sane. That was much better than doing my accounting homework, right?
These aren't all the colleges. It's only 59 different schools, so not close to all the div. I colleges. I just thought it would be fun to try and I figured I'd show what I came up with.
The right hitter is at the top, that is for sure. Some good names scattered throughout. Probably similar to my cape cod rankings. Some guys have great stats, but that does not equal a great prospect in college. Let me know what you guys think.

I didn't do anything to make the pitchers and hitters numbers representative of their value against each other. Sale is not better than Rendon or Harper.

Hitters
Rk Name College total
1   Anthony Rendon Rice 1176.07
2 Bryce Harper Southern Nevada 1175.28
3   Rico N…

A couple sleepers..

Aderlin Rodriguez is a 3B for the NYM and is a sleeper I like. He is a big kid already with big power and may end up at 1B but could be a prospect along the lines of Wilmer Flores. Ramon Flores an OF for the NYY is also a favorite. He doesn't have the power that Rodriguez has but has a very good bar. Omar Narvaez a catcher for the Rays is one I like also. Nothing outstanding about him, I just have a good feeling. Oswaldo Arcia, an OF for Minnesota is another bat to watch. Rey Nunez, a big 1B for the NYY has huge raw power. He is a little older than the others here but he could be a masher. Exicardo Cayones, an OF for Pittsburgh is another to keep an eye on. More of a speedy CF type. Keep in mind, these guys are in their infancy as prospects and likely wont debut for 4-6 years but could be on a lot more prospect radars in a year or two. They are deep deep sleepers.

Juan Urbina is a guy to watch. Ugueth's son has a lot of potential and could follow a developmental arc similar to…

Cape Cod Prospect 2009 review

Last season, I paid little attention to college ball and the summer leagues. I ran my formula on the cape cod league and came up with a list of top prospects. You can view the original post here

1st rounders:
4 Gary Brown
1 Chris Sale

2nd Rounders:
1 Todd Cunningham
14 Jedd Gyorko
20 Jarrett Parker
30 Brett Eibner
6 Daniel Tillman
13 Rob Rasmussen

3rd Rounders:
10 Austin Wates
27 Robert Segedin

4th Rounders:
9 Trent Mummey
12 Chris Bisson
18 Kyle Blair
27 Bryan Morgado

5th Rounders:
9 Justin Grimm

2011 Picks:
Jackie Bradley, potential top 10.
24 Riccio Torrez
28 George Springer
29 Johnny Ruettiger

And a bunch more went in the top 10 rounds. So 1/4 of the guys I posted went in the top 5 rounds. Not real great, but it's a start. I don't know the percentage of players that played in the cape that went in the top 5 rounds but I know I missed out on some. Zach Cox, Alex Wimmers, Jesse Hahn and Brandon Workman are a few that I know I missed. It did catch a few guys for 2011 though. I promise to do better thi…

Pro debuts

They can be interesting and yesterday several big prospects made their pro debut.

Donvan Tate, the 3rd overall pick last season to San Diego, went 0-5 in his pro debut. He K'd twice.

Kellin Deglan went 0-2 with a K. He was the Rangers 1st round pick and 22nd overall. He signed for 1 million just days after the draft. Signing and getting game action in Arizona can only help the young canadian catcher develop.
Jake Skole, the other 1st rounder for Texas, went 1-2 in his debut. Love to see these guys sign and get on the field so soon after the draft.

K.C. Hobson, and OF for Toronto went 2-4. He was their 6th round pick last year and signed for .5 million.

Jake Marisnick, an OF for Toronto who signed for 1 million in the 3rd round, went 1-4 with 2 K's.

Mike Olt, a future 3B but current SS for Texas, went 0-4. He may struggle as he has had vision issues in college. He may have a slow start but I still believe in him.

On the international signings side, Michael Ynoa made his long awaited …

Kendall Volz

Jonathan Singleton

Top 100 Prospects with my rating

Rank Name Last Name , POS , TEAM Floor Ceiling Projection
1 Stephen Strasburg , P , WSH 8 - 10 - 9.4
2 Bryce Harper OF WSH 8 - 10 - 9.3
3 Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA 8 - 10 - 9.3
4 Jesus Montero , C , NYY 8 - 10 - 9.2
5 Michael Stanton , RF , FLA 7 - 10 - 8.7
6 Desmond Jennings , CF , TB 7 - 9 - 8.1
7 Carlos Santana , C , CLE 7 - 9 - 8.1
8 Buster Posey , C , SF 7 - 9 - 8.1
9 Mike Trout , CF , LAA 6 - 9 - 7.4
10 Domonic Brown , CF , PHI 6 - 9 - 7.4
11 Martin Perez , P , TEX 6 - 10 - 7.6
12 Jacob Turner , P , DET 6 - 9 - 7.4
13 Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB 6 - 9 - 7.5
14 Jameson Taillon P PIT 6 - 10 - 7.6
15 Aroldis Chapman , P , CIN 6 - 10 - 7.6
16 Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC 6 - 9 - 7.3
17 Shelby Miller , P , STL 6 - 9 - 7.3
18 Julio Teheran , P , ATL 6 - 9 - 7.4
19 Chris Carter , 1B , OAK 6 - 9 - 7.2
20 Pedro Alvarez , 3B , PIT 6 - 9 - 7.3
21 Drew Storen , P , WSH 7 - 8 - 7.5
22 Tanner Scheppers , P , TEX 6 - 9 - 7.2
23 Dayan Viciedo , 3B , CHW 6 - 9 - 7.2
24 Josh Vitters , 3B , CHC 6 - 9 - 7.2
25 Matt Moore ,…

Mid Season Top 1000

Rank Name Last Name , POS , TEAM
1 Stephen Strasburg , P , WSH
2 Bryce Harper OF WSH
3 Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA
4 Jesus Montero , C , NYY
5 Michael Stanton , RF , FLA
6 Desmond Jennings , CF , TB
7 Carlos Santana , C , CLE
8 Buster Posey , C , SF
9 Mike Trout , CF , LAA
10 Domonic Brown , CF , PHI
11 Martin Perez , P , TEX
12 Jacob Turner , P , DET
13 Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB
14 Jameson Taillon P PIT
15 Aroldis Chapman , P , CIN
16 Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC
17 Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC
18 Shelby Miller , P , STL
19 Julio Teheran , P , ATL
20 Chris Carter , 1B , OAK
21 Pedro Alvarez , 3B , PIT
22 Drew Storen , P , WSH
23 Tanner Scheppers , P , TEX
24 Dayan Viciedo , 3B , CHW
25 Josh Vitters , 3B , CHC
26 Matt Moore , P , TB
27 Brett Wallace , 1B , TOR
28 Jordan Lyles , P , HOU
29 Fernando Martinez , LF , NYM
30 Ben Revere , CF , MIN
31 Tony Sanchez , C , PIT
32 Jose Iglesias , SS , BOS
33 Kyle Drabek , P , TOR
34 Jose Tabata , CF , PIT
35 Peter Bourjos , CF , LAA
36 Grant Green , SS , OAK
37 Jiovanni Mier , SS , HOU
38 Ch…

Mid season top performances by level

These are just top performances, not the top prospects. If I have time, I may try to do a redux of the top 2000 for these results, but it is highly labor intensive.
If your favorite prospect is not on here, just ask and I can let you know where they are at and give a statistical analysis of the reasoning.

3A
Hitters:
1 Jose Tabata
2 Daniel Descalso*
3 Carlos Santana#
4 Mike Baxter*
5 Kila Ka'aihue*
6 Peter Bourjos
7 Brock Bond#
8 Jarrett Hoffpauir
9 Logan Morrison*
10 Pedro Alvarez*
11 Desmond Jennings
12 Alex Gordon*
13 Corey Wimberly#
14 Eduardo Nunez
15 Zack Cozart
16 Jason Bourgeois
17 Michael Brantley*
18 Buster Posey
19 Dustin Martin*
20 Ike Davis*

Pitchers:
1 Jeremy Hellickson
2 Derek Holland*
3 Travis Wood*
4 Stephen Strasburg
5 Chris Resop
6 Daniel Hudson
7 Frank Herrmann
8 Luke French*
9 Max Scherzer
10 Madison Bumgarner*
11 Jake Arrieta
12 Brad Lincoln
13 Evan MacLane*
14 Andrew Cashner
15 Chris Tillman
16 Todd Redmond
17 Jay Jackson
18 Casey Coleman
19 Justin Thomas*
20 Thomas Diamond

2A
Hitters:
1 Mike Stanton
2 B…

Mid Season prospect review-Pitchers

Rank Name Age League
1 Arodys Vizcaino 19 South Atlantic
2 Jordan Lyles 19 Texas
3 Randall Delgado 20 Carolina
4 Alejandro Sanabia 21 Southern
5 Jeremy Hellickson 23 International
6 Blake Beavan 21 Texas
7 Michael Pineda 21 Southern
8 Bryan Woodall 23 California
9 Brandon Kintzler 25 Southern
10 Jorge Bucardo 20 South Atlantic
11 Mark Cohoon* 22 South Atlantic
12 Edgar Osuna* 22 Texas
13 Cesar Cabral* 21 South Atlantic
14 Robert Erlin* 19 South Atlantic
15 Derek Holland* 23 Pacific Coast
16 Brandon Moore 24 South Atlantic
17 Charles Furbush* 24 Florida State
18 Travis Wood* 23 International
19 Tyler Skaggs* 18 Midwest
20 David Phelps 23 Eastern
21 Jarred Cosart 20 South Atlantic
22 Stephen Strasburg 21 International
23 Ian Krol* 19 Midwest
24 Ethan Hollingsworth 23 California
25 Nicholas Hernandez* 21 South Atlantic
26 Erasmo Ramirez 20 Midwest
27 Chris Resop 27 International
28 Liam Hendriks 21 Midwest
29 Julio Teheran 19 South Atlantic
30 Bryan Morris 23 Florida State
31 Daniel Hudson 23 International
32 Julio Teh…

Mid Season prospect review

I have ran an analysis on all the active players playing in all the full season leagues. At the top, to no one's surprise is Mike Trout. The only thing he is not well above average at is walking and he still did that at an 11% rate.
Next is Mike Stanton. His power is literally off the charts. He has just been promoted but I'm not confidant he'll stay up. He may need more time and that shows with his 73% contact rate.
Brandon Belt is next on the list. He is 22 and in the California league so his age is about average for the league. What he is doing surprises me and he is in the California league, in which the ball typiclly travels well, so this has to be taken with a grain of salt. I'm not discounting it completely, though.
Ryan Kalish is having a great season in AA, but has struggled with a call up. He may not get a shot in Boston for a while, but that can't hurt at this point. He is only 22.
Brett Lawrie has shown impressive speed on the basepaths with 9 triples and 1…

Draft Signings

Jake Skole, the 15th overall pick, signed with the Rangers for $1,557,000. Mike Foltynewicz signed for $1.3 million at 19th overall to Houston. #22 overall Kellin Deglan signed for $1 million to the Rangers as well. The Phillies signed Jesse Biddle for $1.16 million as the 27th picks. Justin O' Conner signed with the Rays for $1.025 million.

Alex Wimmers at #21, has recently stated that he is looking for a $2 million+ deal instead of slot money that would be below Folty's $1.3 mil. If I were Bill Smith, I would begin talking to DeAndre Smelter to see what he would want to sign. Wimmers does not blow me away and I think the #21 pick next year will be superior to him.

Several sandwich picks signed including Mike Kvasnicka, Matt Lipka, Bryce Brentz, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndgaard.

Some later round guys have signed also but no huge surprises. SS Chris Hawkins, #93 overall, was a good sign by the Blue Jays.

Draft prospect update

I am thru the top 265 overall with my rankings. I am obviously not as good as the teams who actually do the drafting but I like to think I kind of know what I am doing. I do have good bloodlines. My great uncle struck out Babe Ruth and would have pitched in the majors, or so I've been told many times, if he wasn't a total drunk. I was not projectable and had a fringy changeup. I was undersized for a RHP and lacked a true plus pitch as my fastball was straight due to my over the top delivery. When I dropped down my slider flattened out and was hittable and I had an injury history but I was a bulldog on the mound. I think I got all the cliches in there, but it's all true. :)

Some of the biggest bargains are A.J. Cole to Washington at 116th overall. James Paxton to Seattle went 132nd overall and should have been chosen in the top 50 picks. Jesse Hahn was a steal by Tampa Bay at #191. He is a first round talent. Garin Cecchini could get first round money as the Red Sox 4th roun…

Cranking away on rankings..

I'm compiling all the info for all the 2010 draft picks and getting them into format to merge with my top 2000 list and my MLB list.

Right now it looks like 11 to 14 guys will jump into the top 100 from this draft. Kind of weak compared to last year.

More to come...

My top 300 prospect by the numbers

was semi-accurate. 66 of the top 100 on my list went in the top 100. I was shooting for 70, so I guess I can live with that.

All of them were drafted though. The lowest was Brian Ragira at #916 due to his commit to Stanford.

193 of my top 300 went in the top 300. That's 64%, so my top 100 at 66% kind of continued down.

36 of my top 300 were not drafted. The highest ranked on that list is Trey Griffin. He is committed to Oklahoma State and is the brother of Orioles Prospect Xavier Avery.

62 of my top 300 were picked within 20 spots of their placement on my list. 87 were within 30 picks or a round. 38 were within 10 picks.

If you want a certain team review posted

ask me above on formspring and I'll put one together.

And also THANK YOU to all the visitors to my site over the last few days. The site recieved more hits yesterday than it had in some months combined and it put me over the 100,000 view mark. THANKS everyone! The site is growing exponentially each month and it makes me proud. Thank you!

Boston Red Sox Draft Review

Wow, the Red Sox will have a great draft if they sign these guys, but they will need to spend and spend a lot to sign them.
Kolbrin Vitek at #20 is a solid pick. Vitek is a solid 2 way player and will waste his arm at 2nd base, but I don't think he has the footwork to play SS or 3rd. His bat will be best at 2B and could be a plus bat for that 2B.
Brentz is the best power bat in the college ranks this year and could patrol RF for the Sox in 2 or 3 years.
Anthony Ranaudo won't blow you away with stuff but is similar to current Sox pitcher John Lackey. I don't think he is completely healthy but is a high risk high reward guy. He could have been a top 5 pick if he would have had a good junior season.
Brandon Workman could have went in the top 20 but fell to #57. He has a nasty curveball with a mid to upper 90's fastball. I could see him being as good as #7 overall Matt Harvey.
Sean Coyle is a short 2B who can be a good starter. Coyle has a good arm, plus speed and a good bat …

Baltimore Orioles Draft Review

Hard to argue with Machado at #3 overall. He was the consensus pick here.
They didn't have another pick until Dan Klein in the 3rd round. He fit well in that spot and looks like a set up man and could be in that role in 2 years.
Trent Mummey is intriguing. I had him as the 9th best prospect in the Cape Cod league last summer with plus speed and showed he can hit with wood. This spring he had a big power surge and kept up with the speed. He looks to be a corner outfielder in the long run but might be a speedy corner outfielder with a good bat. I like that pick.
Connor Narron hasn't impressed me when I have seen him play and I expect him to go to North Carolina. If the O's do sign him, he will need time to adapt to pro ball. He has a low floor but could be a higher pick in 3 years as a 3B or OF.
Dixon Anderson can sit in the low 90's and has an average slider and a fringy change. Has the potential to be a decent SP but has command issues. He's a big guy and could add a …

When the draft is over

I will start working on draft reports and post snippets as I go.
The final grade will be posted for each team after the August signing deadline.

They will be available in their entirety in my prospect book available this offseason. Click the buy now button on the side to pre-order now.

The first day

Overall Name Last Name POS Team School My Top 300 rating
1 Bryce Harper , RF , WSH : Southern Nevada CC : 1
2 Jameson Taillon , RHP , PIT : The Woodlands (Texas) HS : 2
3 Manny Machado , SS , BAL : Brito Prep, Miami : 4
4 Christian Colon , SS , KC : Cal State Fullerton : 36
5 Drew Pomeranz , LHP , CLE : Mississippi : 3
6 Barret Loux , RHP , ARZ : Texas A&M : 84
7 Matt Harvey , RHP , NYM : North Carolina : 7
8 Delino DeShields , 2B/OF , HOU : Woodward Academy : 46
9 Karsten Whitson , RHP , SD : Chipley HS, Bartow, Fla. : 6
10 Michael Choice , OF , OAK : Texas-Arlington : 14
11 Deck McGuire , RHP , TOR : Georgia Tech : 19
12 Yasmani Grandal , C , CIN : Miami : 9
13 Chris Sale , LHP , CHW : Florida Gulf Coast : 18
14 Dylan Covey , RHP , MIL : Maranatha HS, Pasadena, CA : 20
15 Jake Skole , 2B , TEX : Blessed Trinity HS, GA : 225
16 Hayden Simpson , RHP , CHC : Southern Arkansas : 249
17 Josh Sale , OF , TB : Bishop Blanchet HS, SEA : 5
18 Kaleb Cowart , RHP , LAA : Cook County, GA : 42
18 Mike …

Mike Kvasnicka, 3B, HOU

Kvasnicka is a switch hitter who converted to catcher this year. He is still hitting well even though he has been pitched around a lot. He is a second generation Golden Gopher and has more power than his father. He played some C and RF this season. Houston took him as a 3rd baseman and it should be a good fit there. I saw him more as a second or third rounder, but not a bad pick here.

Zach Cox to St. Louis...

Cox is one of the most polished hitters in the draft. Some of the other draft experts have cited that he won't have enough power to be a 3B in the majors.
What I see is a successful power hitter who reworked his entire approach after his sophomore season to hit for average and succeeded. It tells me that he can make adjustments against good competition and will do so at the next level. I like him.

Floor of a part time player and a ceiling of a solid starter. Not a superstar though.

Bryce Harper, RF, WSH

Not Catcher....I forgot to post that, but that may shock most people. It doesn't hurt his value enormously to me though. The bat is what matters with him and him moving to the OF doesn't shock me.

As I stated last Oct. 29th:
I think Harper is the real deal, but it was dissappointing to not see him get a hit. I don't think he is enormously ahead of the competition because he will probably end up in the OF, but I still have him as #1.

Josh Sale, Kaleb Cowart

Sale is the best early round pick other than the top 2. Sale went #17 to Tampa Bay and was my #5 talent in the draft.

Kaleb Cowart was ranked #42 on my list for 2 reasons. One has come to fruition and that is that he was picked as a 3B not a RHP. He has more potential to be a good pitcher than a 3B. His swing just does not impress me. The 2nd reason is his signing bonus demands. He is my early pick for the highest unsigned pick in the draft.

Out of nowhere

#225 on my list just went #15 to Texas.
Jake Skole , 2B , Blessed Trinity HS, GA
1/17/1992 Left Right 6'1" 180 Georgia Tech Commit
: Watch for overslot. Good upside. Football scholarship as safety. Puts a lot of weight on the front leg during his swing. Could have contact issues.
Floor-2 Ceiling-8

I expected him to go in the 6th or 7th round and be a potential overslot signing. Guess I was wrong :)

#249 Hayden Simpson just went #16 to the Cubs. What the hell. Rocket arm on this Div. II guy.

Nice pick by Brewers

with Dylan Covey.
Dylan Covey , P , Maranatha HS, Pasadena, CA
8/14/1991 Right Right 6'2" 195:
Committed to San Diego
Covey has a powerful downhill delivery with really good stuff. He is very athletic and has good command. Great Curveball.
Floor-5(12th pitcher)
Ceiling-8(#1 or #2, Closer)

#10 Michael Choice, OF, OAK

Michael Choice , OF , Texas-Arlington
11/10/1989 Right Right 6'1" 215:
Choice has a loud swing. He has a lot of movement, and it is LOUD when he makes contact. He has a lot of pop, mediocre speed, arm and defense. I see him as a LF in the long run.

Floor
4-top level minor leaguer
Ceiling
9-Superstar

Well the first reach has occured..

Colon at #4 is a little bit of a reach to KC, but Barret Loux to Arizona is an enormous reach. I had him at 84th with a floor of a 12th pitcher in the bigs and a ceiling of a #3 starter. Not really what I'd be looking for at #6.

Wow, Delino at #8. Great athlete rocketed up draft boards, well at least the 'Stros. I can't bash the pick because they got a hell of an athlete with enough bat to play at many positions.

MLB draft notes

I'm still working on my top 300. It's not just a semi random ranking like the February version was. Much more information is available now and compiling it takes a lot of time. I'm also taking a 400 level law class and a calculus class right now too. I should be studying for a math test tomorrow, but I have a good enough handle on it to write a little here.

I rewatched the Aflac game from Petco park last summer and took a few things away from it. Bryce Harper looks like a pro wrestler for as much eye black as he wears. He has a rocket for an arm, but a big windup. He likes to show it off and it costs him in mechanics. He doesn't need good mechanics to gun down potential stealers and it is actually to his detriment. He struggled in that game but showed off tremendous bat speed and his arm will play well in RF, where I believe the Nationals will play him.

Cam Bedrosian has really good stuff. He flashes MLB stuff right now. He's inconsistent and needs more experience bu…