Monday, December 27, 2010

Draft Analysis, Part II

When analyzing thousands and thousands of players drafted, it gets to be cluttered. I’ve analyzed each position and separated out college, high school and junior college players by position. If I would just post numbers, it wouldn’t help anyone unless they really enjoy looking at numbers.
What I did was calculated the percentage of each position to reach each rating from 10-5 and also those that did not make it to the majors. Just for an example here is what I did for each position for each round from 1 thru 10. This is for 1st Round Catchers:
Rank 4-yr % HS % JC %
10 1 8.33% 1 7.14% 0 0.00%
9 3 25.00% 4 28.57% 0 0.00%
8 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00%
7 2 16.67% 2 14.29% 0 0.00%
6 1 8.33% 2 14.29% 0 0.00%
5 3 25.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00%
0 2 16.67% 5 35.71% 1 100.00%
12 14 1

As you can see, if I did this for each position and each round, it could get very overwhelming. What I did from this is use a weighted average of each percentage and each ranking. I took 8.33% and multiplied it by 10, then 25% times 9, and so on and added them to create a weighted average of what ranking to expect from each position in each round. It is still cluttered, but much more manageable. Using this method, one player won’t drastically alter any of the findings and it will show the regression of each position by round to show the likelihood of success of each position.

To see the chart go to MLB Bonus Baby


or

Here is the chart via google docs.

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