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Showing posts from December, 2010

Draft Analysis, Part II

When analyzing thousands and thousands of players drafted, it gets to be cluttered. I’ve analyzed each position and separated out college, high school and junior college players by position. If I would just post numbers, it wouldn’t help anyone unless they really enjoy looking at numbers.
What I did was calculated the percentage of each position to reach each rating from 10-5 and also those that did not make it to the majors. Just for an example here is what I did for each position for each round from 1 thru 10. This is for 1st Round Catchers:
Rank 4-yr % HS % JC %
10 1 8.33% 1 7.14% 0 0.00%
9 3 25.00% 4 28.57% 0 0.00%
8 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00%
7 2 16.67% 2 14.29% 0 0.00%
6 1 8.33% 2 14.29% 0 0.00%
5 3 25.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00%
0 2 16.67% 5 35.71% 1 100.00%
12 14 1

As you can see, if I did this for each position and each round, it could get very overwhelming. What I did from this is use a weighted average of each percentage and each ranking. I took 8.33% and multiplied it by 10, the…

Analyzing the Draft, Part 1

In my effort to improve my statistical formula I’ve been working on for years, I decided to do some research on the MLB Draft. There are some common ideas about the draft. Many think that college players are less likely to fail and are more likely to succeed than high school players. Another theme is that catchers take longer to develop as well as fail more. Sometimes these two are combined saying that high school catchers fail often. Over the next few articles, I will break down the rounds starting with the 1st round. I will look which positions generate the best players and are the most successful. I will look at which had given the best return, high school, college or junior college players and how long it takes each to get to the major leagues.

I studied from 1987-2001 to see if these hold true. Over the next few articles, I will tell you what my findings are. I cut the study off at 2001, even though I have data thru 2010. This allowed players time to make it to the majors and est…

Long Tossing and my experience.

Project Prospect had a scout give his opinion on long tossing. I liked it and though I would give my opinion and experience on it.

I also have a strong feeling about long toss. I believe it is a great way to gain arm strength and to warm up. I believe in the "bullets" theory to a point but it varies from person to person. I have no way to prove or disprove this as well, but I just have personal experience.
I grew up on a farm in rural Minnesota and there was very little to do besides spend time outside. My favorite past time was throwing rocks. I would throw rocks standing on our gravel driveway and throw them at our garbage burning barrel, which was an old 50 gallon oil drum. It was about 130' from the driveway and I would try to hit it. From the same spot I could throw at a 4" wide fence post that was 60' away and several trees in our grove about 100' away. I would throw at each of these targets for hours on end. If I would just be out doing chores, I wou…

Orioles Draft Report

The Orioles spent the 6th most on draft picks this season and were only behind the Pirates for spending on high school talent. This means the talent they signed won't help them real soon, but it allows them to develop the talent within the organization under their tutelage. I really liked their approach in this draft.

The Draft:

Manny Machado, SS, 1st Round

Machado is a long lean wiry SS that doesn't currently have big power but has a good bat. He makes consistent hard contact and could gain power as he matures. A lot of his future potential depends on two things. If he stays at SS, he won't need to hit as much to be very valuable and should easily be an above average SS offensively. If he outgrows SS and has to move to 3B, he should be above average defensively and hit enough to be solid there. I think he'll be a .280-.300 hitter with 15-25 HR's depending on how he matures. He is definately a star as a SS and slightly above average as a 3B. He was the best choice …


I haven't posted as much recently, I am working on draft reports for MLB Bonus Baby and also I am doing some research on the draft. I am looking at the draft from 2008 back to 1987. I want to see what percent of players make it to the majors. I will also do a positional analysis. I have a lot of ideas on how to look at this info, but it's taking some time compiling it for my analysis. I have a busy day tomorrow and Saturday but my insomnia may help me get this done quicker.
I plan on doing more work for the blog here after my draft analysis. I am also doing an analysis on minor leaguers over the past decade to see what statistics lead to major leaguers. I did this previously but I'm just increasing the scale to get a more accurate calculation.
It just takes a lot of time and labor. Hang in there, it will be worth the wait.

Gauging the Signings so far

With the system I created, it gives me a salary figure that would be a fair price to pay a free agent. It is often going to be less than what a player actually gets, but it can gauge if a team is ridiculously overpaying.

Here are some of the numbers:
Name Contract My Value
Carl Crawford 142.00 81.86
Jayson Werth 126.00 64.38
Adam Dunn 56.00 63.84
Derek Jeter 51.00 59.42
Victor Martinez 50.00 63.70
Cliff Lee 66.00
Carl Pavano 39.35

Not overly accurate. I still have some work to do to get it more accurate, but it shows that Jayson Werth got paid more than he should have and Adam Dunn is a steal.
I think Pavano will get overpaid, that's why I posted him as well. To Yankees fans, Jeter still is worth paying, I don't care what everyone else says about the guy.

Prelude to the top 2000 prospects

Each year for the last 3 years, usually in late February, I have done a top 2000(or so) prospect list. This season I have much more knowledge on the minors leagues than I have the past and I am putting this list out much earlier to quench the thirst of all you prospect fans. The more time I spend on this, the more I get to know these players. This season I am using my formula, similar to years past, as an integral part of my rankings. I also added a weighted system based on a players floor and ceiling. I am not going to post each players ratings as it would take up way too much room. I do have them available in a .pdf format that is available to you. If you are interested in seeing some, please read here.
I am to the point that there are very few players in the minors leagues I don't know about. If there are, I can look at his statistical profile and get a good feeling about what type of player he is. Enough about that. Here is what you want to see:

Top 2000 Prospects for the 2011 season

RK Name Last Name , POS , TEAM
1 Jesus Montero , C , NYY
2 Mike Trout , OF , LAA
3 Bryce Harper , OF , WSH
4 Freddie Freeman , 1B , ATL
5 Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC
6 Julio Teheran , P , ATL
7 Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC
8 Wil Myers , C , KC
9 Brett Lawrie , 2B , TOR
10 Aroldis Chapman , P , CIN
11 Lonnie Chisenhall , 3B , CLE
12 Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA
13 Jameson Taillon , P , PIT
14 Matt Moore , P , TB
15 Domonic Brown , OF , PHI
16 Manny Machado , SS , BAL
17 Gary Sanchez , C , NYY
18 Brett Jackson , OF , CHC
19 Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB
20 Jonathan Singleton , 1B , PHI
21 Matt Dominguez , 3B , FLA
22 Yorman Rodriguez , OF , CIN
23 Martin Perez , P , TEX
24 Miguel Sano , SS , MIN
25 Jarrod Parker , P , ARI
26 Stetson Allie , P , PIT
27 Nick Franklin , SS , SEA
28 Desmond Jennings , OF , TB
29 Fernando Martinez , OF , NYM
30 Randall Delgado , P , ATL
31 Shelby Miller , P , STL
32 Manny Banuelos , P , NYY
33 Hank Conger , C , LAA
34 Nick Castellanos , 3B , DET
35 Jacob Turner , P , DET
36 …

MLB Bonus Baby

It's official, I am the new manager over at MLB Bonus Baby. Please join me over there to talk anyting MLB Draft or international signing related. But don't worry, I will still be doing statistical analysis and other prospect related research here, though.
Come join me over in the great SB Nation community!