Skip to main content

Victor Martinez signs with Detroit

Martinez signed with Detroit today for 4 years/50 million dollars. I've posted a few things over the past few years trying to estimate fair value of players. One formula I came up with overrated mediocre prospects, another only worked for major leaguers but now I think I have one that will work for any professional player.
I have Victor Martinez worth 23.46 million using the safest rating. If a team that is rebuilding would have signed him, the most they should have paid is 22.70 million and a team looking to win now should have went up to 63.70 million.
I think the Tigers giving VMart 50 million is a fair deal for him and for the Tigers.
Just for another reference the Cincinatti Reds signed Dontrelle Willis to a minor league contract today. His safe number is 1.04 million. The win now value is kind of ridiculous at 17.43, but he could be worth that if he would ever return to the level he once was. The 3rd value is 1.04 million. I call it the win later value, which essentially any team could pay and not be getting ripped off too badly.
I just had a break through on this a couple days ago, so I haven't analyzed it too deeply, but it doesn't look too bad at the moment.


  1. Except that he has a career .225/.321/.349 slash at Comerica over 196 plate appearances. He will regress a little but I'm guessing that the aging Vic isn't a good fit at cavernous Comerica.

  2. I can see him having a bit of a hard time there and if I were the GM, I wouldn't have signed him to that kind of deal. That being said, I think several other teams would have paid him similarly.

  3. As for V-Mart's slash line at Comerica, that is/was against the Tiger'spitching staff that he will Now be the catcher. Line drive hitter, should get a fair share of doubles with the homeruns taking a small drop. As for games caught, that should drop as the contract goes from years 1 to 4. By then Tigers will hope Avila comes through and Holaday/Brantley are ready to back him up. just my 2cents


Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Names to Watch for 2011 and 2012 Draft

For more information on the draft, check out my new blog MLB Bonus Baby for more information regarding the draft.

Over the next month or so, I will be moving most Draft related info to MLB Draft Prospects. MiLB Prospects will be more focused on current minor leaguers.

These lists are far from perfect but it's a start

Aaron Brown , OF , Chatsworth HS, Calif.
Aaron Westlake , OF , Vanderbilt
Aaron Collazo , SS , Lady Bird Johnson, San Antonio, TX
Aaron Deguire , C , El Camino College
Aaron Dunsmore , OF , Dayton
Aaron Fanning , SS , Northwest (TX) HS
Aaron Gretz , C , Apple Valley, Apple Valley, MN
Aaron Johnson , LHP , Dunham, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Knapp , MIF , Granite Bay Granite Bay CA
Aaron Moore , RHP , Westwood Austin TX
Aaron Nola , RHP , Catholic, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Novak , OF/RHP , Germantown Academy (PA)
Aaron Thomassen , RHP , Nathan Hale Seattle WA
Aaron Westlake , 1B/OF , Vanderbilt
Abram Cartledge , LHP , Thomson, Thomson, GA
Adam Bennett , SS/RHP , …

Top 300- 2010 MLB Draft Prospects

Name POS Schools
1 Bryce Harper C Southern Nevada CC
2 Jameson Taillon RHP The Woodlands (Texas) HS
3 Anthony Ranaudo P LSU
4 Drew Pomeranz LHP Mississippi
5 Nick Castellanos 3B Archbishop McCarthy HS, FLA
6 Bryce Brentz OF Middle Tennessee State
7 AJ Cole P Oviedo HS, Orlando
8 Zack Cox 3B Arkansas
9 Austin Wilson OF Harvard-Westlake HS, CA
10 Deck McGuire RHP Georgia Tech
11 Karsten Whitson RHP Chipley HS, Bartow, Fla.
12 Christian Colon SS Cal State Fullerton
13 Matt Harvey P North Carolina
14 Levon Washington 2B/OF Chipola JC
15 Manny Machado SS Brito Prep, Miami
16 Josh Sale OF Bishop Blanchet HS, SEA
17 Chris Sale LHP Florida Gulf Coast
18 Jedd Gyorko 2B West Virginia
19 Brandon Workman P Texas
20 Stetson Allie 3B St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio
21 Brian Ragira OF Martin HS, Arlington
22 Dylan Covey P Maranatha HS, Pasadena, CA
23 Derek Dietrich SS Georgia Tech
24 DeAndre Smelter P Tattnall Square GA
25 Kevin Gausman RHP Grandview HS, Aurora, Colo
26 Cameron Bedrosian P East Coweta HS, Sharpsburg, GA
27 Jos…