Monday, November 29, 2010

Legend for my Reports

MiLB Prospects

From the top, moving right: MiLB/MLB defines whether a player is a major or minor leaguer. Next is the players first name, then last name. The players current position, then the players projected position. Finally is his estimated time of arrival in the majors.

Under Vitals is the players age as of 4-1-11. Going down the list is the players birthday, the way he swings, the way he throws, his height, his weight and finally his body size. This is simply his weight divided by height. It is a way of measuring if a player is maxed out physically, very skinny(Chris Sale) or kind of fat (Dayan Viciedo).

To the right is scores. The first 2 are floor and ceiling. They are based on this:
Hitters Pitchers
10 All-time great All-time great
9 Superstar Ace
8 Occasional All-Star #1 or #2, Closer
7 Starter-Solid Regular #3(7.6), #4(7.3),#5 (7.0), Set up man(7.0)
6 Part-time player swingman/ 7th inning guy
5 bench warmer 12th pitcher
4 top level minor leaguer top level minor leaguer
3 middle level minor leaguer middle level minor leaguer
2 low level minor leaguer low level minor leaguer
1 won't last long won't last long

There are other increments in there as well, but they are just to differentiate players slightly.
Projection is what the player currently projects to become. Below that is % chance. This is the likelihood of a player reaching the major leagues.

In the next column to the right is other info. This states the round in which a player was drafted or the country he was signed from. The next row is the year he was signed or drafted and below that is the bonus he received. Next is the year in which the players’ contract runs out, but still has an option. Next is the approximate year in which the team loses control of the player.
Next are the rankings. First is the overall rank in the minor leagues. Next is his rank on his team, then his rank at his position.
The next 4 values are based on a complex formula I designed to predict a players’ future value. It isn’t perfect and is one of the things I am continuing to work on. The first value is the value I believe a player is worth right now if he were on the open market. The next is the value a player is worth if a team wants to win right now. The 3rd is the value a player is worth if a team wants to win later. This number could be used to evaluate trades of major leaguer for minor leaguers in which it looks lopsided. The young player may have a lot of future value. The 4th number is simply an average of the first 3 values.
The next 2 spots are for links to videos. I don’t have this portion operating currently. Lastly is the level in which the player ranked the best in the previous season. The statistics below this are from this level.

Under hitting, first is contact rate. This is just K/AB in percentage form. Walk rate is BB/AB in percentage form. The next 8 ratings are based on the 20-80 scale in scouting and show where a player sits with each skill. The higher this number the better a player is at that skill. One thing that needs to be considered is age. These numbers are not age adjusted except for Total. For example if a player has an age value of 65 and a hitting value of 48, this doesn’t mean he will be a below average hitter. It means he was nearly average while being considerably younger than his competition and you can expect significant improvement, at least in hitting and power. A players BB rating and K rating should improve as he gains in experience but it could also decrease due to difficulty. A players’ speed will likely decrease as he gains weight and ages. You can look at both age and body size to help decide what is going to happen with the player. Production value is more of a value in how much of an opportunity a team gives the prospect to produce runs. It can be really high on players who are minor league sluggers but don’t project to do it in the majors like Joel Guzman. Total is a crucial number to look at. It is a cumulative number that states how good of a season the player had based on the other numbers. Defense is a number that I have assigned to a player from seeing the player play or reading scouting reports on a players’ defense. It is based on his current position, not his projected position.

Under pitching, the first row is a players’ FB velocity range followed by his max velocity. Next is the velocity of the players’ curve ball, slider and change-up. I don’t have this information for all the players, but I don for the better prospects. Next is the players projected spot in the rotation. This is an educated guess, but it can give you an idea of what a player can accomplish. The next 8 ratings are similar to that of hitters. They are based on 20-80 scale with 50 being the average. IP/G is just an average, so over 50 means a pitcher will probably be a starter, below it, he will likely be a reliever. WHIP is based on how many runners a pitcher allows. Control is based on walks while dominance is based on strikeouts/9. Efficiency is my version of FIP and ERA is based on ERA and some other things. Age needs to be taken into consideration with pitchers but not quite as much as hitters. Total is the best number to look at to see what kind of season the player had, age relative to the league.

Lastly, is my report. I haven’t written too many of these yet, but I have for a few guys. I’ll do more of these as I get more requests for personalized reports but I can’t promise I’ll do this for any more than I already have, which is minimal.

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