Thursday, September 16, 2010

Arizona League Top Prospects

Rodriguez projects to have plus power although it didn't show up a lot in the AZL. Cuthbert is a solid athlete and held his own in the AZL. Pimentel's walk rate was miniscule and his contact rate was just poor but his power was impressive. Cam Bedrosian shows a lot of polish and has great genetics for pitching. Contact issues are a common denominator here, as Arias had issues, but when he hit it, it went for extra bases often. Donvan Tate had the poorest performance of the top 10 but due to his potential, he deserves a spot. While Hembree doesn't project as a starter, his season was very good and he deserves a spot here and could move fast. Torreyes dominated in the VSL and moved up to Arizona and continued to hit. He only struck out 5 times in 89 Plate Appearances. He could be one to watch. I really like Ryan Bolden. He is very athletic and just looks like a star in waiting. I think I underrated him prior to the draft. I like Max Walla but his contact rate was just horrendous this season.

1. Rafael Rodriguez , OF , SF
2. Cheslor Cuthbert , 3B , KC
3. Guillermo Pimentel , CF , SEA
4. Cam Bedrosian , P , LAA
5. Junior Arias , SS , CIN
6. Donavan Tate , CF , SD
7. Chevy Clarke , CF , LAA
8. Alex Monsalve , C , CLE
9. Jorge Martinez , SS , CLE
10. Heath Hembree , P , SF
11. Michael Antonio , SS , KC
12. Ronald Torreyes , H , CIN
13. Corey Adamson , OF , SD
14. Max Walla , CF , MIL
15. Tae-Hyok Nam , 1B , LAD
16. Ralston Cash , P , LAD
17. Charles Jones , CF , SF
18. Kyle Lotzkar , P , CIN
19. Ryan Bolden , CF , LAA
20. Jin-ho Shin , C , KC
21. Luis Sardinas , SS , TEX
22. Richard Alvarez , P , TEX
23. Taylor Lindsey , SS , LAA
24. Tomas Telis , C , TEX
25. Odubel Herrera , , TEX
26. Wendell Soto , SS , LAA
27. Wes Mugarian , P , CIN
28. Teodoro Martinez , OF , TEX
29. Jordan Akins , RF , TEX
30. Tyler Vail , P , OAK
31. Robel Garcia , SS , CLE
32. Brooks Hall , P , MIL
33. James Baldwin , CF , LAD
34. Royce Consigli , OF , OAK
35. Juan Silva , OF , CIN
36. Dylan Unsworth , P , SEA
37. Sergio Burruel , C , CHC
38. Brandon Maurer , P , SEA
39. Pin Chie Chen , SS , CHC
40. Brandon Martinez , P , LAD

Now, for a little experiment. I came up with a formula using past performances by minor leaguers, isolating skills that make players more likely to become Major Leaguers. A small percentage of players from this level make it to the majors, 4-6%. Of the top 40, here is a list in the order of their MLB likelihood according to my newest formula. I think higher levels will work better and this will take 5 years or better to prove out but here it is for future use.
1. Dylan Unsworth , P , SEA
2. Teodoro Martinez , OF , TEX
3. Heath Hembree , P , SF
4. Odubel Herrera , 2B , TEX
5. Royce Consigli , OF , OAK
6. Junior Arias , SS , CIN
7. Taylor Lindsey , SS , LAA
8. Robel Garcia , SS , CLE
9. Guillermo Pimentel , CF , SEA
10. Charles Jones , CF , SF
11. Pin Chie Chen , SS , CHC
12. Chevy Clarke , CF , LAA
13. Michael Antonio , SS , KC
14. Ronald Torreyes , 3B , CIN
15. Luis Sardinas , SS , TEX
16. James Baldwin , CF , LAD
17. Juan Silva , OF , CIN
18. Tomas Telis , C , TEX
19. Rafael Rodriguez , OF , SF
20. Jorge Martinez , SS , CLE
21. Corey Adamson , OF , SD
22. Wendell Soto , SS , LAA
23. Cheslor Cuthbert , 3B , KC
24. Tyler Vail , P , OAK
25. Tae-Hyok Nam , 1B , LAD
26. Ryan Bolden , CF , LAA
27. Wes Mugarian , P , CIN
28. Richard Alvarez , P , TEX
29. Alex Monsalve , C , CLE
30. Ralston Cash , P , LAD
31. Sergio Burruel , C , CHC
32. Max Walla , CF , MIL
33. Brandon Martinez , P , LAD
34. Brandon Maurer , P , SEA
35. Jordan Akins , RF , TEX
36. Donavan Tate , CF , SD
37. Jin-ho Shin , C , KC
38. Brooks Hall , P , MIL
39. Cam Bedrosian , P , LAA
40. Kyle Lotzkar , P , CIN

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