Thursday, July 1, 2010

Trade analysis

Bengie Molina was traded to Texas to fill in for the lack of progress by the young trio of catcher in Texas. The Rangers gave up plenty giving up Michael Main. He has the potential to be a #1 starter if not an ace but it was a fairly even trade. Chris Ray actually has more value than main in a trade, as he has a higher likelihood of being a back of the rotation guy or a middle reliever.
Molina has a value of 16.72 with a 54% likelihood of continuing to be a solid big league starter. Main and Ray combine to have a 52% likelihood of being solid big league players with Main having the potential to be much more. I see this as a fair trade as long as some money goes to Texas. My numbers suggest it should be about $2.5 million, but that seems a little too much to me.

The other recent trade was between Seattle and Cleveland. Russell Branyan is headed back to Seattle and Ezequiel Carrera and Juan Diaz head to Cleveland. Casey Kotchman hasn’t hit for Seattle at all and Branyan could still push 30 HR’s, even in Safeco.
Branyan is a starter on some teams and could be a solid starter, which he should be in Seattle. He has a 43% chance to be a solid starter. Ezequiel Carrera is a solid OF’er who hasn’t fared well in AAA this season. I expected him to have a better year than he has. I believe he could be solid starter someday, but is likely to just be a 4th OF’er. Juan Diaz, a SS in HiA ball has had a pretty good season but wasn’t on my top 2000 list, therefore I don't have ratings on him. If I would he would project to be a utility player and have a liklihood of 25% or so. He will be on my list this year and could be a top 30 prospect for Cleveland. This deal, again, is pretty even. This is definitely not another Carlos Santana for Casey Blake deal, though. Sorry Indian fans.


  1. The whole point of the trade for the Giants was to open up the catching position for Posey. The fact that they got any players of value back is a plus for them.

  2. I agree. It was to open up a spot for the Giants, but they did a great job of acquiring a very good haul to just open up the spot for Posey. Maybe they learned from the Pierzynski trade years back, that a solid catcher is a valuable chip and should be moved while they have good value. A commendable move on the Giants part. The Rangers have made several unusual moves lately in my opinion and this was one of them.