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MLB draft notes

I'm still working on my top 300. It's not just a semi random ranking like the February version was. Much more information is available now and compiling it takes a lot of time. I'm also taking a 400 level law class and a calculus class right now too. I should be studying for a math test tomorrow, but I have a good enough handle on it to write a little here.

I rewatched the Aflac game from Petco park last summer and took a few things away from it. Bryce Harper looks like a pro wrestler for as much eye black as he wears. He has a rocket for an arm, but a big windup. He likes to show it off and it costs him in mechanics. He doesn't need good mechanics to gun down potential stealers and it is actually to his detriment. He struggled in that game but showed off tremendous bat speed and his arm will play well in RF, where I believe the Nationals will play him.

Cam Bedrosian has really good stuff. He flashes MLB stuff right now. He's inconsistent and needs more experience but I really like him.

Jameson Taillon is the real deal. He will be the 2nd or 3rd overall pick in the draft and should be.

Dylan Covey looked great with a really tight curveball and looked poised. He's sliding a little on draft boards but scouting is about seeing if a player has something. If he shows it once, it's in the guy. Then it is the coaches jobs to get it out and polish it. It is in Covey. The team that drafts him will find it and make him a major leaguer.

Brian Ragira crushed a double to center that would have went out in most parks. I have heard he isn't worth buying out of his Stanford commit but I might roll the dice on that. He is headed to a very good Stanford squad, so he could only improve it.

Stetson Allie disappointed me. He knocked the catchers glove off with the first pitch but it was a low 90's offering. He didn't show any consistency but hit 97 but was mostly in the low 90's. His location was off. He was around the zone, but seemed more thrower than pitcher. It sounds like he has done better this spring and if he gives up hitting and working at 3B, he could improve more readily.

I've also watched a few college games lately. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU pitched well at the end of the game against Alabama yesterday. He was up to 94 but struggled with his control. His curve was inconsistent but he has very good stuff. It looked like his shoulder hurt to me. He kept holding it away from his body and lifting it. I did a similar motion after I started throwing again after I tore my rotator cuff. I'm not saying he's injured, but I don't think he's 100% yet. He is still one of the top pitchers in the draft and the injury would not scare me away from him.

Seth Blair, a RHP for Arizona, is a very polished pitcher. He isn't Mike Leake, but his command of his fastball and curve were very impressive against Oregon State.
Greg Peavey, on the other hand, looked off. His breaking ball was below average and his control was poor. Zack McPhee is short but can really hit.

Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Ole Miss, has a nasty curveball but his command needs work. He has plenty of time to work on that and I am confident he will be a very good MLB pitcher.

Rob Segedin, 3B, Tulane showed pretty good pop, but it looks more like doubles power as a pro. I like him to stick at 3B and be an average player in the bigs.

Kevin Patterson, 1B, Auburn does nothing but hit HR's. He was highly touted out of HS but did little in college. Watch him when he makes his pro debut, he could surprise.

Mike Ojala, RHP, Rice is a really good pitcher. I'm not sure where he is at with recovery from TJ surgery, but he looked pretty solid to me. Nice curve with tight rotation. Change had good fade to it and his FB sat upper 80's. Not a superstar but he can pitch.

Rick Hague, SS/DH, Rice did not show me much. I do think they were quick to yank him off short. In the game I watched, it looked like they could have dragged the infield once to keep the ball from ricochetting off the gravel as if were concrete. This may have caused a couple of the errors. I won't write him off, but he is not a top 2 round player but could be a steal if he falls to the 4th or later.

On the other hand, Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice will be a superstar. He isn't eligible until 2011 but he is one hell of a special player. When the game was on the line, he crused a 3 run homer and did it with ease. He also made a stellar bare handed play and gunned the runner with a rocket arm. I can't say enough good about him.

Alex Wimmers does not have as good of command as everyone says he does and will struggle a little. He does have very good stuff and should be a 1st round pick, but he will not fly thru the minors. 2013 is as soon as I see him having success in the bigs.

Mike Kvasnicka, OF/C, Minnesota has a nice swing from both sides of the plate. I haven't seen his recieving skills, but he deserves to be a 2nd-3rd round pick.
Seth Rosin, RHP, Minnesota is built like a horse and has stellar body control for a 6'6", 250 LB guy. His stuff will not allow him to dominate but his control will allow him to have a lot of success. He may actually have to learn to throw outside the strike zone more. Pro players will get onto that hit him hard.

I've seen more and I have another 10 or so games on the DVR but that's all I got off the top of my head.


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Over the next month or so, I will be moving most Draft related info to MLB Draft Prospects. MiLB Prospects will be more focused on current minor leaguers.

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Aaron Westlake , OF , Vanderbilt
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Aaron Nola , RHP , Catholic, Baton Rouge, LA
Aaron Novak , OF/RHP , Germantown Academy (PA)
Aaron Thomassen , RHP , Nathan Hale Seattle WA
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Abram Cartledge , LHP , Thomson, Thomson, GA
Adam Bennett , SS/RHP , …

Top 300- 2010 MLB Draft Prospects

Name POS Schools
1 Bryce Harper C Southern Nevada CC
2 Jameson Taillon RHP The Woodlands (Texas) HS
3 Anthony Ranaudo P LSU
4 Drew Pomeranz LHP Mississippi
5 Nick Castellanos 3B Archbishop McCarthy HS, FLA
6 Bryce Brentz OF Middle Tennessee State
7 AJ Cole P Oviedo HS, Orlando
8 Zack Cox 3B Arkansas
9 Austin Wilson OF Harvard-Westlake HS, CA
10 Deck McGuire RHP Georgia Tech
11 Karsten Whitson RHP Chipley HS, Bartow, Fla.
12 Christian Colon SS Cal State Fullerton
13 Matt Harvey P North Carolina
14 Levon Washington 2B/OF Chipola JC
15 Manny Machado SS Brito Prep, Miami
16 Josh Sale OF Bishop Blanchet HS, SEA
17 Chris Sale LHP Florida Gulf Coast
18 Jedd Gyorko 2B West Virginia
19 Brandon Workman P Texas
20 Stetson Allie 3B St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio
21 Brian Ragira OF Martin HS, Arlington
22 Dylan Covey P Maranatha HS, Pasadena, CA
23 Derek Dietrich SS Georgia Tech
24 DeAndre Smelter P Tattnall Square GA
25 Kevin Gausman RHP Grandview HS, Aurora, Colo
26 Cameron Bedrosian P East Coweta HS, Sharpsburg, GA
27 Jos…

Catchers By Age

The best way to analyze prospects is using their age in relation to the level they are playing at. Without taking too much of the level into account to start, I'll just be looking at age. I use a players age based on the date that MLB uses to define whether a player will be a draft eligible sophomore, because much of my analysis originates with a players drafted year. If a player is 26.01 on that date, he falls into the 26 year old age category. The age won't always match what is listed on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs but that is how I do it. If I don't have a players birthdate, I use the age listed on Baseball Reference.

Catchers typically progress slower than players at most other positions. The average time for a  college catcher to make it to the majors is 4.15 years. The average for a high school catchers is 5.27 years. This time can be reduced if a player has a higher skill level. Elite players only take 3.04 years out of college and 4.09 out of high school. These…