MLB Prospect Guide

My Top 300 from 2-11 can be found here
I'm still ironing out the end, so for now, here is my top 100:
Name Last Name POS Schools
1 Bryce Harper , C , Southern Nevada CC
2 Jameson Taillon , P , The Woodlands (Texas) HS
3 Drew Pomeranz , P , Mississippi
4 Manny Machado , SS , Brito Prep, Miami
5 Josh Sale , OF , Bishop Blanchet HS, SEA
6 Karsten Whitson , P , Chipley HS, Bartow, Fla.
7 Matt Harvey , P , North Carolina
8 Anthony Ranaudo , P , LSU
9 Yasmani Grandal , C , Miami
10 Nick Castellanos , 3B , Archbishop McCarthy HS, FLA
11 AJ Cole , P , Oviedo HS, Orlando
12 Brandon Workman , P , Texas
13 Zack Cox , 3B , Arkansas
14 Michael Choice , OF , Texas-Arlington
15 Stetson Allie , 3B , St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio
16 Asher Wojciechowski , P , The Citadel
17 Kevin Gausman , P , Grandview HS, Aurora, Colo
18 Chris Sale , P , Florida Gulf Coast
19 Deck McGuire , P , Georgia Tech
20 Dylan Covey , P , Maranatha HS, Pasadena, CA
21 Garin Cecchini , SS/3B , Barbe HS, Lake Charles, La.
22 Jesse Hahn , P , Virg…

We are closing in on the draft and I'm working on my draft board. Right now, I have 263 players projected to have a chance to be picked in the first 7 rounds.

Rounds 1-3
Jason Adam , P , Blue Valley HS, Kansas :
Stetson Allie , 3B , St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio :
Zach Alvord , 2B , South Forsyth HS, GA :
Dixon Anderson , P , University of California-Berkeley :
Tyler Austin , C/3B , Heritage HS, GA :
Robbie Aviles , P , Suffern HS, NY :
Cameron Bedrosian , P , East Coweta HS, Sharpsburg, GA :
Chad Bettis , P , Texas Tech :
Jesse Biddle , P , Germantown Friends School, Philadelphia :
Chris Bisson , 2B , U of Kentucky :
Kyle Blair , P , San Diego :
Seth Blair , P , Arizona State :
Rob Brantly , C , UC Riverside :
Bryce Brentz , OF , Middle Tennessee State :
Kris Bryant , 1B , Bonanza Hs, Las Vegas :
Yordy Cabrera , SS , Lakeland FL HS :
Nick Castellanos , 3B , Archbishop McCarthy HS, FLA :
Michael Choice , OF , Texas-Arlington :
Drew Cisco , P , Wando HS, Mt. Pleasant, S.C. :
Chavez Clarke , OF , Marie…

I've posted a few of my reports, but I really don't like the way the text looks. So I spent some time working with microsoft access tonight. This is what I came up with as something different. Hope you like it.

MiLB:
Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU

Floor-Ceiling, Likely outcome, % likelihood to reach ceiling
5-8, 6.3, 39.74%

Age on 4-1-10, Birthdate
19.46, 10/19/1990

Bats-Throws
Right-Right

Height Weight Round Year Signing Bonus
6'4", 185, 1, 2008, $930,000

IP/G-WHIP-Results-Control-Pitchability-Dominance-Efficiency-Age
50-50-65-80-80-55-80-70

Level League Big League Debut
A, SAL, 2011

MiLB:
Liam Hendicks, P, MIN
Floor-Ceiling, Likely outcome, % likelihood to reach ceiling
4-7, 4.7, 23.37%

Age on 4-1-10, Birthdate
21.15, 2/10/1989

Bats-Throws
Right-Right

Height Weight Round Year Signing Bonus
6'1", 187, Australia, 2007, $-

IP/G-WHIP-Results-Control-Pitchability-Dominance-Efficiency-Age
60-45-40-40-70-55-45-60

Level League Big League Debut
A, MWL, 2013

MiLB:
Jean Segura, 2B, LAA
Floor-Ceiling, Likely outcome, % likelihood to reach ceiling
4-7, 4.2, 8.29%

Age on 4-1-10, Birthdate
20.05, 3/17/1990

Bats-Throws
Right-Right

Height Weight Round Year Signing Bonus
5'11", 193, D.R., 2007, $-

Contact %-Walk…

MiLB:
Hak Ju Lee, SS, CHC

Floor-Ceiling, Likely outcome, % likelihood to reach ceiling
5-9, 6.3, 31.86%

Age on 4-1-10, Birthdate
19.42, 11/4/1990


Bats-Throws
Left-Right

Height Weight Round Year Signing Bonus
6'2", 170, Korea, 2008, $725,000


Contact %-Walk %-Clutch-Vision-Contact-Speed-Power-Age
82-11-55-40-40-50-35-70


Level League Big League Debut
A-, NWL, 2013

What my floor-ceiling #'s mean

Hitters , Pitchers
10 All-time great , All-time great
9 Superstar , Ace
8 Solid Starter , #1 or #2, Closer
7 Starter on some teams , #3-5, Setup man
6 Part-time player , swingman/ 7th inning guy
5 bench warmer , 12th pitcher
4 top level minor leaguer , top level minor leaguer
3 middle level minor leaguer , middle level minor leaguer
2 low level minor leaguer , low level minor leaguer
1 won't last long , won't last long

The International signing season typically begins on July 2nd each season, but there are others who can sign, as they have reached the eligible age.

Adeiny Hechevarria broke open the season by signing for $10 million over 4 years with the Toronto Blue Jays. He won't have the glove that fellow Cuban defector Jose Iglesias has, but will be a solid SS. It was good enough for Cuba to move Jose Iglesias over to 2B in 2007 at the World Junior Championships. His bat will play better than Iglesias' in my opinion, at least with the power aspect.

Jean Carlos Batista is a switch hitting shortstop who just signed with the Houston Astros. He was hitting .283 in 15 games in the newly formed Dominican Prospect League(DPL). He showed solid defense at SS, but at 6'2", 175 LBS, he will probably have to move off short to 3B but could be a solid SS for a few years until he outgrows the position. He will begin his pro career in the Dominican Summer League(DSL).

Michael Feliz is a 6'4&qu…

Allan Simpson at Perfect Game wrote about Draft Mechanics and how it works.

I don't have all MLB debuts in my database, but I do have MLB service time for most players. If I take the year a player was drafted and factor in his age compared to service time, I can get a decent idea as to when he made his debut, or at least became a regular MLB player. Some of the names at the top surprised me, well kinda.
It's kind of a mixed bag for pitchers, but one thing is for sure, even the top draft picks with huge upsides are pretty inconsistent, except Lincecum.
The hitters are better in my opinion.

Within the last year, I have said that I would rush Strasburg to the bigs, at most giving him 10 starts in the minors. Lincecum only had 13, and I think Strasburg could beat that, but after seeing this, I would hesitate with others. I think Strasburg is in a different tier than most of these guys but if your favorite team rushes your top pitching prospect to the majors, just give them time and they will be inconsistent. Brian Matusz, Dan Hudson, Madison Bumgarner and …

MiLB:
Jake Odorizzi, P, MIL

Floor-Ceiling, Likely outcome, % likelihood to reach ceiling
5-8, 5.8, 26.56%

Age on 4-1-10, Birthdate
20.03, 3/27/1990

Bats-Throws
Right-Right

Height Weight Round Year Signing Bonus
6'2", 180, 1, 2008, $1,060,000

IP/G-WHIP-Results-Control-Pitchability-Dominance-Efficiency-Age
30-45-30-30-55-55-40-50

Level League Big League Debut
R, PIO, 2012

If you want to know about a certain player, feel free to ask. I have most of my top 2000 rated in the same way. If not, I can run it for the person. Just ask me on formspring via the link at the top of the page or comment here.


What my floor-ceiling #'s mean

Hitters , Pitchers
10 All-time great , All-time great
9 Superstar , Ace
8 Solid Starter , #1 or #2, Closer
7 Starter on some teams , #3-5, Setup man
6 Part-time player , swingman/ 7th inning guy
5 bench warmer , 12th pitcher
4 top level minor leaguer , top level minor leaguer
3 middle level minor leaguer , middle level minor leaguer
2 low level minor leaguer , low lev…

I continued with my same pattern as last season, although I didn't think this draft had the depth the 2008 one did. I had the 2nd overall pick in the draft I traded away Jarrod Washburn, Reed Johnson, Carl Pavano, Doug Davis, Tony Gwynn Jr. and in an unusual move, Lars Anderson. I received the #3 overall pick, a 2nd round, 6th and 11th round pick for him. I also traded my #4 overall pick(as i was the 4th worst team in the league due to my selloff) and a 2nd round pick for the #2 overall pick and a high 3rd round pick. I really wanted to get Ackley and I got him with the #2 overall pick. At #3, I had a hard time deciding between Donovan Tate, Tyler Matzek and Grant Green. I even though about Bobby Borchering and Matt Davidson here, but it was just too high for them, but I really believe in their bats. I passed on Matzek because I didn't think he'd sign and I hadn't seen Tate enough to be sold on his potential. I also thought he might not sign and I'd loose his right…

This season I traded the likes of Boof Bonser, Luke Scott, Mike Mussina, Tim Redding, BJ Ryan and the big ones...Shane Victorino and Carl Crawford(who I had traded for the season before). My team really did poorly in 2007 and without going into it too much, needed my fingerprint on it. I took over a team in which the owner quit the league and I kind of wanted to blow it up and make it my own. I planned on building thru the draft and I saw the 2008 draft as a deep draft, so I stockpiled. Here is what I came up with.

Round Player Pos Team
1 Justin Smoak 1B TEX
1 Brett Wallace 1B STL
2 Jake Odorizzi RHP MIL
2 Jaff Decker OF SD
2 Lance Lynn RHP STL
3 L.J. Hoes 2B BAL
3 Isaac Galloway OF FLA
4 T.J. Steele OF HOU
4 Tyler Chatwood RHP LAA
5 Brett Hunter RHP OAK
5 Matt Hague 3B PIT
5 Edwin Quirarte RHP SF
6 Jason Knapp RHP PHI
7 Adam Milligan OF ATL
7 Tony Delmonico SS LAD
8 Nate Tenbrink 3B SEA
8 Brett Oberholtzer LHP ATL
8 Brandon Crawford SS SF
8 Michael Palazzone RHP ATL-didn't sign
9 Nino Leyja SS OAK
9 M…

In 2007, I had a year of experience in the league and I made a few trades. I traded my 2nd, 4th and 6th picks along with JR Towles and Aaron Thompson for Jeff Francouer. And then I did something dumb. I wanted to trade up to 9th overall in the draft, as I had the 13th overall pick. The owner of that pick wanted a 1st and 3rd eound pick for that pick. Considering I had earlier moved my 2nd and 4th for Frenchy, I thought it was a little steep, and the guy I wanted wasn't going to be that much better than the guy I would get, either Matt Dominguez or Kevin Ahrens. Jason Heyward wasn't worth a 1st and 3rd...oops.
Well onto what I actually did.

Round Name POS Team
1 Matt Dominguez 3B FLA
3 Collin DeLome CF HOU
4 Matthew Rizzotti 1B PHI
5 Matthew Brown CF CLE
5 Adam Reifer RHP STL
6 Kade Keowen CF BOS
6 Ryan Wehrle SS NYY
6 Bradley Meyers P WSH
6 Kentrail Davis CF COL-DNS
7 Mike McCardell RHP MIN
8 PJ Dean RHP WSH
9 Steven Cishek RHP FLA
9 Jonathan Holt RHP CLE
9 Paul Koss RHP LAD
9 Jeff Gr…

Round Name Position Team College
1 Kyle Drabek RHP PHI Woodlands, Texas
2 Chris Tillman RHP SEA Fountain Valley, Cali
3 Matt McBride--traded for 4,6,11 TRADED
4 Dallas Buck RHP ARI Oregon State
4 Chris Errecart OF MIL U of Cali
5 Jason Donald SS PHI U of Arizona
6 Casey Hudspeth RHP HOU Sarasota, FL
6 Jake Brigham RHP TEX Central Florida Christian Academy
7 Jim Negrych 2B PIT U of Pitt
8 Doug Fister RHP SEA Merced College
9 Stephen Holmes RHP NYM U of Rhode Island
10 Alex Presley OF PIT U of Mississippi
11 Ryan Khoury SS BOS U of Utah
11 Shawn Scobee OF TOR U of Nevada
12 Hunter Mense OF FLA U of Missouri
13 Paul Coleman LHP LAD Pepperdine
14 Jamie Arneson LHP CIN Fresno State
15 John Hester C ARI Stanford
16 Charles Benoit LHP PIT Caroll, TX
17 Josh Roenicke RHP CIN UCLA
18 Jacob Dempsey OF PHI Winthrop
19 Micheal Campbell OF SD U of South Carolina
20 Micheal Cowgill 2B MIN James Madison U
21 Kyle Parker RHP SEA U of Washington
22 Matt Manship RHP OAK Stanford
23 Adam Hale RHP HOU Rice
24 Matt Michael LH…

When I was a kid, I didn't konw much about the draft. Growing up in rural Minnesota, I didn't have much access to information. The first thing I can remember about the draft, other than reading the information on the back of baseball cards, which I started collecting in 1986, was the #3 overall pick in the 1991 draft: David McCarty. I tried to stay informed through farm reports and stats in the Star Tribune on Sundays, which I would get occasionally from a gas station about 10 miles from where I lived, after church. He did ok in the minors if I recall and when he debuted in 1993, he flopped. He had no power, a long swing and struck out all the time. I was disappointed. I was 12. I was looking for another star to join my recent World Series winning Twins, and I couldn't have been more sad. I started to collect minor league cards to get more knowledge in the minor leagues. Help for the Twins had to come from somewhere and it wasn't coming from free agents, that was for s…