Friday, April 16, 2010

Trade Values...

Lately I have been working on rating MLB players with a similar system to my MiLB system for..... well, just for the hell of it I guess.
One thing I think it could be useful is guessing what a prospects trade value is...let's see.

Fred Lewis was recently traded from San Francisco to Toronto. Lewis is a fair MLB player and could be useful for a team like the Jays. I don't think the Giants are going to get much for him although he has some value.
A fair deal would be for a player like Zech Zinicola, a Triple A relief arm. The second name is Danny Farquhar, the 23 year old AA Pitcher. Trystan Magnuson and Santiago Nessy are also listed next but they are both were big investments. Magnuson was a 1st round pick in 2007 and Nessy was a recently signed out of Venezuela for $750,000. My guess is it will be a guy who isn't even in my top 2000, but we will see.

This brings me to the big names. Adrian Gonzalez probably won't be in San Diego come August. My guess is they will be looking for top prospects that are close to MLB ready. Boston is one possible contender and a deal that makes sense would be RHP Clay Buchholz, 1B Anthony Rizzo, and a high ceiling player that is a ways away like Michael Almanzar or Will Middlebrooks. The Red Sox have so much depth in the way of high ceiling, low level prospects that last guy could be one of a dozen. They may prefer Lars Anderson, Casey Kelly or Michael Bowden instead of Buchholz but there is no doubt the Red Sox have the chips.

The Mariners and Orioles could also be in the mix. I don't see a deal to Seattle not including Dustin Ackley. I don't think Jack Z. would move Ackley, but Jose Lopez could be a part of the package. Beyond that, the Mariners don't have the big chips.
Maybe Jose Lopez, Casey Kotchman, and a prospect like Michael Saunders, or Ezequiel Carrera to finish it off, but I don't think that deal could beat the deal to the Sox.
The Orioles could be a sleeper here. They were willing to pay for a big bat when Mark Teixiera was available and may do the same for Gonzalez. The problem is, I think he wants to test free agency. There is no question they have the chips to pull off a deal, though. At the top they could offer Brian Matusz or Chris Tillman, the nexttier of players could be Josh Bell, Jake Arrieta or Brandon Snyder and one or two guys like LJ Hoes, Mychal Givens, Xavier Avery, Jacob Cowan or even Bill Rowell.
The deal I would offer is Tillman, Arrieta, Snyder, Givens and Rowell and see where it goes. This deal is a win for San Diego using my numbers but is a good deal for the Orioles, in my opinion.

I believe that the Orioles should make a big push for either Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez. They have done a great job in the last couple drafts, stockpiling late round draft picks with high upsides by paying over slot for them. I think now is the time to trade in these prospects for some offensive help.

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