Sunday, February 7, 2010

Jim Callis Chat on BA

There was an interesting question asked on Baseball America's chat by a guy named Neal from Toronto on 2-3..I thought I'd do my best to answer it.

"If you could pick one minor league for each of the following career feats which would you chose? 200 wins, 2500K's, 2500 hits, 400 HR, 400 SB?"

The pitching for me is much tougher than the hitters because you never know who is going to get bit by the injury bug and have a short career. The obvious answer for the most success would be Stephen Strasburg as he is the best pitching prospect in baseball but I'm not sold he is going to have a really long career. I do believe that the Nats are going to put a good team on the field in the upcoming seasons. The easy choice for both the pitching questions would be Strasburg, I'm not going the easy route.

200 wins would not put a player in the top 100 of all time. This includes players the likes of Kevin Brown, John Smoltz and Curt Schilling. This pitcher needs to be a guy that is able to stay healthy for a long time and be a dominant pitcher for the bulk of those years. There are several players that I could go out on a limb on but my pick will be someone who has been tested and suceeded and has a good pedigree...Kyle Drabek, although health may be an issue.

2500 k's would be one of the top 30 all time. This is highly unlikely and I would say it has a .01% chance(pulled out of the air) to acually happen. I am going with a personal favorite who has had very little trouble K'ing people although he hasn't even been faced with AA hitters yet...Matt Moore

The 2500 hit mark I could see being a little more likely to eclipse than the Wins and the K's. I could forsee several of the top hitters having the ability to get to this mark. It would put them in the top 90 of all time along with players like Garrett Anderson, Manny Ramirez, Fred Mcgriff and Frank Thomas. The player with the highest probability to hit for a high average over a long career is...Dustin Ackley.

The 400 HR mark is an achievement only 45 have achieved, most recently Vlad Guerrero. Mike Stanton has an enormous amount of power potential but also has a lack of contact ability, but is very young. He has a solid chance to be here at the end of his career as does the best overall hitting prospect in the minors, Jason Heyward. But I am going to go with the player I see the most likely to hit for power over a long career, though most of it may be as a DH.....Jesus Montero.

Stolen bases are an unpredictable statistic. 60 players have had more than 400 SB's in the big leagues and one of the few that are close to going past this number is Carl Crawford. Alcides Escobar was the first name that popped into my mind but considering he will be playing at a demanding physical position, his legs might wear down quicker than an outfielder. I'm going to go with the guy that may join, or replace Crawford in the Outfield in Tampa.....Desmond Jennings.

Looking back at what I just wrote kind of depressed me, just AL players from the East and West...oh well, I'm sure I won't be right anyway...

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