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Draft Analysis, Part II

When analyzing thousands and thousands of players drafted, it gets to be cluttered. I’ve analyzed each position and separated out college, high school and junior college players by position. If I would just post numbers, it wouldn’t help anyone unless they really enjoy looking at numbers.
What I did was calculated the percentage of each position to reach each rating from 10-5 and also those that did not make it to the majors. Just for an example here is what I did for each position for each round from 1 thru 10. This is for 1st Round Catchers:
Rank 4-yr % HS % JC %
10 1 8.33% 1 7.14% 0 0.00%
9 3 25.00% 4 28.57% 0 0.00%
8 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00%
7 2 16.67% 2 14.29% 0 0.00%
6 1 8.33% 2 14.29% 0 0.00%
5 3 25.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00%
0 2 16.67% 5 35.71% 1 100.00%
12 14 1

As you can see, if I did this for each position and each round, it could get very overwhelming. What I did from this is use a weighted average of each percentage and each ranking. I took 8.33% and multiplied it by 10, the…

Analyzing the Draft, Part 1

In my effort to improve my statistical formula I’ve been working on for years, I decided to do some research on the MLB Draft. There are some common ideas about the draft. Many think that college players are less likely to fail and are more likely to succeed than high school players. Another theme is that catchers take longer to develop as well as fail more. Sometimes these two are combined saying that high school catchers fail often. Over the next few articles, I will break down the rounds starting with the 1st round. I will look which positions generate the best players and are the most successful. I will look at which had given the best return, high school, college or junior college players and how long it takes each to get to the major leagues.

I studied from 1987-2001 to see if these hold true. Over the next few articles, I will tell you what my findings are. I cut the study off at 2001, even though I have data thru 2010. This allowed players time to make it to the majors and est…

Long Tossing and my experience.

Project Prospect had a scout give his opinion on long tossing. I liked it and though I would give my opinion and experience on it.

I also have a strong feeling about long toss. I believe it is a great way to gain arm strength and to warm up. I believe in the "bullets" theory to a point but it varies from person to person. I have no way to prove or disprove this as well, but I just have personal experience.
I grew up on a farm in rural Minnesota and there was very little to do besides spend time outside. My favorite past time was throwing rocks. I would throw rocks standing on our gravel driveway and throw them at our garbage burning barrel, which was an old 50 gallon oil drum. It was about 130' from the driveway and I would try to hit it. From the same spot I could throw at a 4" wide fence post that was 60' away and several trees in our grove about 100' away. I would throw at each of these targets for hours on end. If I would just be out doing chores, I wou…

Orioles Draft Report

The Orioles spent the 6th most on draft picks this season and were only behind the Pirates for spending on high school talent. This means the talent they signed won't help them real soon, but it allows them to develop the talent within the organization under their tutelage. I really liked their approach in this draft.

The Draft:

Manny Machado, SS, 1st Round

Machado is a long lean wiry SS that doesn't currently have big power but has a good bat. He makes consistent hard contact and could gain power as he matures. A lot of his future potential depends on two things. If he stays at SS, he won't need to hit as much to be very valuable and should easily be an above average SS offensively. If he outgrows SS and has to move to 3B, he should be above average defensively and hit enough to be solid there. I think he'll be a .280-.300 hitter with 15-25 HR's depending on how he matures. He is definately a star as a SS and slightly above average as a 3B. He was the best choice …

Posting

I haven't posted as much recently, I am working on draft reports for MLB Bonus Baby and also I am doing some research on the draft. I am looking at the draft from 2008 back to 1987. I want to see what percent of players make it to the majors. I will also do a positional analysis. I have a lot of ideas on how to look at this info, but it's taking some time compiling it for my analysis. I have a busy day tomorrow and Saturday but my insomnia may help me get this done quicker.
I plan on doing more work for the blog here after my draft analysis. I am also doing an analysis on minor leaguers over the past decade to see what statistics lead to major leaguers. I did this previously but I'm just increasing the scale to get a more accurate calculation.
It just takes a lot of time and labor. Hang in there, it will be worth the wait.

Gauging the Signings so far

With the system I created, it gives me a salary figure that would be a fair price to pay a free agent. It is often going to be less than what a player actually gets, but it can gauge if a team is ridiculously overpaying.

Here are some of the numbers:
Name Contract My Value
Carl Crawford 142.00 81.86
Jayson Werth 126.00 64.38
Adam Dunn 56.00 63.84
Derek Jeter 51.00 59.42
Victor Martinez 50.00 63.70
Cliff Lee 66.00
Carl Pavano 39.35

Not overly accurate. I still have some work to do to get it more accurate, but it shows that Jayson Werth got paid more than he should have and Adam Dunn is a steal.
I think Pavano will get overpaid, that's why I posted him as well. To Yankees fans, Jeter still is worth paying, I don't care what everyone else says about the guy.

Prelude to the top 2000 prospects

Each year for the last 3 years, usually in late February, I have done a top 2000(or so) prospect list. This season I have much more knowledge on the minors leagues than I have the past and I am putting this list out much earlier to quench the thirst of all you prospect fans. The more time I spend on this, the more I get to know these players. This season I am using my formula, similar to years past, as an integral part of my rankings. I also added a weighted system based on a players floor and ceiling. I am not going to post each players ratings as it would take up way too much room. I do have them available in a .pdf format that is available to you. If you are interested in seeing some, please read here.
I am to the point that there are very few players in the minors leagues I don't know about. If there are, I can look at his statistical profile and get a good feeling about what type of player he is. Enough about that. Here is what you want to see:

Top 2000 Prospects for the 2011 season

RK Name Last Name , POS , TEAM
1 Jesus Montero , C , NYY
2 Mike Trout , OF , LAA
3 Bryce Harper , OF , WSH
4 Freddie Freeman , 1B , ATL
5 Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC
6 Julio Teheran , P , ATL
7 Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC
8 Wil Myers , C , KC
9 Brett Lawrie , 2B , TOR
10 Aroldis Chapman , P , CIN
11 Lonnie Chisenhall , 3B , CLE
12 Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA
13 Jameson Taillon , P , PIT
14 Matt Moore , P , TB
15 Domonic Brown , OF , PHI
16 Manny Machado , SS , BAL
17 Gary Sanchez , C , NYY
18 Brett Jackson , OF , CHC
19 Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB
20 Jonathan Singleton , 1B , PHI
21 Matt Dominguez , 3B , FLA
22 Yorman Rodriguez , OF , CIN
23 Martin Perez , P , TEX
24 Miguel Sano , SS , MIN
25 Jarrod Parker , P , ARI
26 Stetson Allie , P , PIT
27 Nick Franklin , SS , SEA
28 Desmond Jennings , OF , TB
29 Fernando Martinez , OF , NYM
30 Randall Delgado , P , ATL
31 Shelby Miller , P , STL
32 Manny Banuelos , P , NYY
33 Hank Conger , C , LAA
34 Nick Castellanos , 3B , DET
35 Jacob Turner , P , DET
36 …

MLB Bonus Baby

It's official, I am the new manager over at MLB Bonus Baby. Please join me over there to talk anyting MLB Draft or international signing related. But don't worry, I will still be doing statistical analysis and other prospect related research here, though.
Come join me over in the great SB Nation community!

Legend for my Reports

MiLB Prospects

From the top, moving right: MiLB/MLB defines whether a player is a major or minor leaguer. Next is the players first name, then last name. The players current position, then the players projected position. Finally is his estimated time of arrival in the majors.

Under Vitals is the players age as of 4-1-11. Going down the list is the players birthday, the way he swings, the way he throws, his height, his weight and finally his body size. This is simply his weight divided by height. It is a way of measuring if a player is maxed out physically, very skinny(Chris Sale) or kind of fat (Dayan Viciedo).

To the right is scores. The first 2 are floor and ceiling. They are based on this:
Hitters Pitchers
10 All-time great All-time great
9 Superstar Ace
8 Occasional All-Star #1 or #2, Closer
7 Starter-Solid Regular #3(7.6), #4(7.3),#5 (7.0), Set up man(7.0)
6 Part-time player swingman/ 7th inning guy
5 bench warmer 12th pitcher
4 top level minor leaguer top level minor leaguer
3 …

MiLB Prospects Reports to help you win in your fantasy league.

As you guys know, I hope, I have been working on a database of players and rankings for a few years now. This year I posted a report featuring the Futures Game Roster and information on each of the players in it. This was the first version of my report. I have adapted it a little an recently I posted the Rule 5 Draft Report
featuring many of the players available in the Rule 5 draft. They aren't the best prospects in baseball but there are better ones this year than last year.

That is the most recent version of my database and I would like to make this available to you guys. I've put in thousands of hours on compiling this information so I can't offer it for free. My plan is to offer specialized reports to give you more in depth information about the players that you are interested in. You send me a list, and I'll send you a .pdf report on the players that you want. If you want the top 20 propsects for your favorite team, or the top 100 starting pitchers, I can do that…

Rule 5 Draft

This season's rule 5 draft is more prospect heavy than it has been the last couple years to me.
Aneury Rodriguez, P, TB had good control and put up good results while being young for his league. His strikeouts could increase with time and I really like him as a potential pick.
Jose Pirela, SS, NYY showed he could hit the ball to the gaps and run and was still young for the Florida State League. I think he could hit enough to be the last player on a roster if someone is looking for a future SS.
Luis Jimenez, 3B, LAA could hit enough to play part time at 3B and could have enough bat to hit a few extra base hits.
Billy Rowell, OF/1B/3B, BAL was a 1st round pick that got Barry Bonds comparisons out of high school and still has big power. He just can't hit the ball frequently. He is likely relegated to 1B but could play in the OF a little and still has potential. I don't believe he can be a future big league regular, but if anyone has all-star potential in this group, it coul…

Values of players

As I posted in the Victor Martinez post, I have 3 different values for each player. The top 10 prospects who are the "safest" are:

Mike Minor , P , ATL 61.18
Dayan Viciedo , 3B , CHW 50.39
Jesus Montero , C , NYY 49.54
Chris Sale , P , CHW 47.88
Jenrry Mejia , P , NYM 44.61
Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC 37.95
Andrew Oliver , P , DET 37.92
Brett Lawrie , 2B , MIL 37.73
Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA 36.89
Mike Trout , OF , LAA 36.33

This is what I feel the current value of these players would be on an open market.

The top 10 for teams who want to win now, a future earnings number with a % of success factored in:
Jesus Montero , C , NYY 56.82
Aroldis Chapman , P , CIN 56.55
Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA 56.35
Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC 55.94
Julio Teheran , P , ATL 55.02
Mike Trout , OF , LAA 54.65
Bryce Harper , OF , WSH 53.29
Jeremy Hellickson , P , TB 50.16
Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC 49.17
Domonic Brown , OF , PHI 49.13

The top 10 for Win Later, essentially a potential future earnings number:
B…