Monday, August 31, 2009

Grades for teams already listed

I've never done this before and I have been adding grades to these teams as I go on my draft. I may as well post them here. I reserve the right to trash this and start over. I may want to re-grade them after I write the rest but here is what I have for now and I don't think they are too far off.

Baltimore Orioles: Grade B-
Boston Red Sox: Grade A-
New York Yankees: Grade C+
Tampa Bay Rays: Grade C-
Toronto Blue Jays: Grade C
Chicago White Sox: Grade B
Cleveland Indians: Grade B-
Detroit Tigers: Grade B
Kansas City Royals: Grade C
Minnesota Twins: Grade B+

NL West is next up.

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Minnesota Twins

Kyle Gibson could be one the top 4 prospects in this draft right now. There are guys with higher ceilings, but few that have the polish and the stuff. The Twins should be thankful for that stress fracture. Matt Bashore has similar stuff to Glen Perkins, who was drafted by the Twins a few years back. Low to mid 90’s FB with a decent change and a good breaking ball. Billy Bullock could be a replacement for Joe Nathan in a couple years. He has great secondary stuff and can hit the high 90’s when needed. He does need to use his 6’6” frame better. Derek McCallum had a breakout season for the hometown Gophers this year. I hope he can turn into a hard nosed Todd Walker with a lot less attitude. I hear Chase Utley comps, but I can’t see that. Tobais Streich and Chris Herrmann are college catchers who are decent defensive players. Herrmann is a better offensive player but probably will move to the OF in the pros. Streich can’t hit as well but is a better defender. I’m not sure what happened to Brad Stillings toward the end of the season, but he did very well at the start of the season and I think that is more of who he is. I think he is a top 3 round kind of guy and will be a good prospect in the Twins system. Brian Dozier is a second baseman in the long run and will struggle to be more than organizational depth. Nick Lockwood is an interesting pick in the 10th. He hit only .386 in HS and had a lot of errors. I don’t think he can stick at SS and will need time to develop. Blake Dean would have been a nice sign. Matt Tone could be a useful loogy. Nick Freitas has a lot of upside and is loaded with tools. Eric Decker and Aaron Senne would have made this a really, really great draft.

Kansas City Royals

Just pay Aaron Crow and get on with it! Wil Myers is a good athlete with upside. I think he will be a good pro and has a shot to be an impact player in the Bigs. Chris Dwyer has good stuff and got paid big time. I don’t see him as a good big league pitcher. Just a feeling I have. Louis Coleman will be a good MLB reliever. Cole White and Dusty Odenbach are college relievers that I’m not real high on. I like Buddy Baumann and I think he will be a decent LH starter because he knows how to pitch. Ben Theriot is a good C defensively and can hit for average. Minimal power though. I think Geoff Baldwin is a sleeper here. If he can cut down on the K’s, he could be a very good ball player. Ryan Woods is new to pitching, but could be a useful bullpen arm. Nick Wooley has a good curve, not much else. I can’t explain 450K to Crawford Simmons, 100K maybe. Claudio Bavera is the best pick I can find past round 12. Ryan Dennick, Scott Kelley and Brian Peacock are college arms who could also make it to AA or higher.

Detroit Tigers

Jacob Turner is a top high school arm. I don’t see him as being another Porcello, but he could be a top half of the rotation guy with consistency of all 3 of his pitches. That may be understating it and could see him as a Chris Tillman kind of guy. Andrew Oliver has had an interesting collegiate career. He has a strong fastball/ cutter combo. If his curve and change develop he could be a good starter. At worst, he’s a solid reliever. Wade Gaynor is a big guy at 6’4”, 220ish. He hit horribly in his pro debut and needs to quiet down his mechanics before he will have any chance in the pros. Edwin Gomez had a bad spring, followed by a bad summer. He was a bad 4th round pick. Austin Wood could be a good pitcher as long as his arm doesn’t fall off from overuse. He will be a useful reliever. Daniel Fields has good bloodlines, good speed and power. He is a local kid and is the 2nd best pick the Tigers had and will be a steal if he can stay at SS. Jaime Johnson has the tools to be a big leaguer. I see him as a good defensive 4th OF’er. Craig Fritsch could be a decent pitcher if he can gain his command and will get the opportunity to be a top 3 round guy next season. John Murrian is a decent throwing C and had a good season in SS ball with the stick. Chris Sedon gets compared to Jim Negrych a lot because he’s a 2B from Pitt. I really like Negrych, I don’t like Sedon as much. Matt Thompson and Mark Appel would have put this draft over the top. Wade Kapteyn is a solid college arm, who has potential. James Robbins is a short guy for a 1B, but has a hell of a bat. I like him. Rawley Bishop could be a useful bat.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Cleveland Indians

Alex White at 15 overall is a bargain. He could be a top starter if all goes right for him. At worst, he will be a bullpen arm, even a closer. I like him. Jason Kipnis could be a useful LF or a 4th OF, at worst. Joe Garner could be a great innings eater as a 3rd starter. Kyle Bellows intrigues me and reminds of another 3B in the CLE system in Wes Hodges. Bellows may have a little more speed and more likely to stick at 3B than Hodges. Austin Adams has a big arm, but is raw. He will need time. Ben Carlson is a polished college bat. I like this pick in the 6th. I’m not a fan of Henry, but he does have great speed and could be a good 4th OF’er. Maybe he will develop power and be a good pro but I’m not seeing it. Cory Burns could move quickly as a middle reliever/setup man with his sidearm delivery. I like Preston Guilmet in the 9th. He could have top 3 round potential with good command of his upper 80’s FB with a plus slider and plus splitter. Brett Brach did a great job in SS this season. He is someone to watch to see if hitters at higher levels catch up to him. I have a feeling they will, but he could end up being a good back end of the rotation guy. Mike Rayl is a great pick in the 15th. I have a feeling he will be around for a while. He’s a LHP and can get guys out. Dwight Childs could be a big league backup because of his defense. He could be a regular if he can hit. Nick Kirk is another lefty who could be around for a while. He has good stuff, just had an injury this spring to drop him 10 rounds further than he should have went. Kyle Smith has a load of potential, but I’m not sure if he can attain it. If he could gain consistency, he could have top 5 round potential with a plus breaking ball. Greg Folgia was a good late round signing and could be a good 2B in pro ball.

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox
Jared Mitchell could be a great pick at 23. I’m not sold on him, but if can refine his raw tools, he could be a left handed Shannon Stewart in his prime. Josh Phegley is a little confusing for me. He can hit, but will it carry over to pro ball? He is not a great receiver but has a strong arm. He could develop into a Mike Napoli type or have to move to 1B and not hit enough to be a regular. That’s not a lot of encouraging praise, but I do like him. Trayce Thompson is a good athlete with a lot of potential. My recommendation to the Sox is to not worry about the K’s and be very patient and ignore his next two seasons K rate and expect him to have his first good season in 2012. Hopefully he can take the mental rigors of this. David Holmberg is a very nice pick. He is a polished 3 pitch pitcher and could move quickly for a HS kid.
Kinda surprised to see Bryan Morgado go back to Tennesee after the poor season they had as a team. He projects to be a reliever with his current skill set. Matt Heidenreich has a big arm and is very raw. Kyle Bellamy = Danny Graves. Justin Collop has decent upside but I’m not that high on him. I like Ryan Buch, although he has had a horrendous debut. He could be a second round talent if he can harness his skills. Matthew Hopps is old for a prospect. He will need to do well right away to be a prospect. He may end up being a solid bullpen arm down the line. Dane Williams and Brian Goodwin could have made this draft a top draft. AJ Casario could be a late round steal if he cleans up his hitting mechanics.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

This weekend...

I will post a couple more teams and start working on my 2010 Draft preview.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Blue Jays Draft Report

Chad Jenkins looks to be a big innings eater in the mold of Boof Bonser, only better. They didn’t sign James Paxton, Jake Eliopoulos, Jake Barrett which is confusing to me. I really like the Jake Marisnick signing. I think he could be a 1st round talent if he can hit. He has all the tools, he just has to put them together. Ryan Goins has a solid swing and should be an offensive 2B in the pros. Ryan Schimpf is just 5-9 but hits like he’s a lot bigger. The Pedroia comps are everywhere but I’ll go with a right handed Todd Walker. KC Hobson has big power and if he can convert it to games will be well worth the 500K he got as a bonus. Egan Smith is a big lefty with an upper 80’s FB. He should have went 5 rounds later in my opinion. Brian Slover is a big righty. The Jays seemed to want to load up on big-bodied arms in this draft. Aaron Loup is an undersized lefty with good control, maybe too good, as he was hit hard at Tulane this year and it has continued in the GCL. Yan Gomes and Sean Ochinko are decent C prospects. Gomes has a better bat and Ochinko has better D. Lance Durham is the son of Leon Durham and has huge raw power. He is under 6 feet and well over 225 lbs. He could be a decent bat if he improves his eye and lays off offspeed stuff he can’t hit. Drew Hutchinson was a big bonus guy and I’m not quite sure why. He did have 106 K’s in 60.2 IP, with a 1.73 ERA for Lakeland HS and was a third team all-american. Nothing that blows me away, but I’m not a scout. Daniel Webb was also another big bonus guy who has a low 90’s FB and nothing else really. Jack Murphy could be a sleeper and I think was a good late round sign.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Rays Draft Report

What happened in the negotiations with Levon Washington? Scott Boras even said he wished it would have gotten done. That means Levon wanted more that Boras could get him. I like Washington's skills, but I really don't like his attitude now. Kenny Diekroger, who also didn’t sign, rated high on tools, but I don’t see him as a big loss to their drarft. Todd Glaesmann could be a 5 tool OF and I think he is one to keep an eye on, especially if he can develop power. 5th rounder Jeff Malm could be a 1st rd talent if he develops power, which he has the body for as a 6’4”, 225 LB guy. I like Devin Fuller and he could be a good 6th round pick. Cody Rogers is a JC guy who has some upside. Brett Nommensen could be an outstanding hitter if he does half of what he did in college this season. Jacob Partridge is a personal favorite and could develop into another in the long line of Rays pitching prospects. Gabe Cohen could turn into a Gabe Kapler kind of player with a bodybuilder body and brute power. Besides the top 2 picks, they also drafted but did not sign Derrek Dennis, Pierce Johnson, Dylan Floro, Alex Besaw, Austin Maddox and James Pazos. Several of these guys could have been good replacements for missing out on the top 2. I would have definitely paid Dennis and Maddox mid to high six figures.

Yankees Draft Report

Slade Heathcott is a guy I don’t have a good feel for. He has a lot of tools but I just can’t get a good feel if he is for real. He has a great arm and could fall back on that if the bat doesn’t work. JR Murphy is a good hitting HS catcher, plus defender, strong arm, but he has the HS catcher thing working against him. Adam Warren and Caleb Cotham are college arms that don’t seem to be special to me. Rob Lylerly has a smooth LH bat at 3B with decent gap power. He won’t be a star but could be a serviceable 3B. Sam Elam and Gavin Brooks are LHP with a lot of potential but have been hampered with injuries and control problems. Brooks was a premium prospect coming out of HS, but did little at UCLA to back that up. I like Neil Medchill a lot and think he can be a RF with big time power. DeAngelo Mack could be a useful 4th OF. Graham Stoneburner is a higher talent than the 14th round and has a big arm. He could be a useful setup man. The Yanks must be high on Bryan Mitchell, but he didn’t come off as an $800k kind of player to me. Luke Murton and Jeff Farnham are good polished college guys with minimal upside. Evan DeLuca seems like a HS version of Elam and Brooks. A power LHP, can never have enough of those.

Red Sox draft report

Reymond Fuentes would not have been my choice at #28, but he seems to be holding his own in Rookie ball. He’s a small guy with a lot of speed but I just don’t see him as a MLB starter. Maybe I’ll be wrong. Not that high on Alex Wilson in the 2nd either. He’ll be a decent reliever, but that’s not what I’d go for in round 2. I like David Renfroe in the 3rd and prefer him as a 3B to on the mound. Jeremy Hazelbaker and Seth Schwindenhammer could both end up as busts and both are struggling making contact early on. I really like Kendall Volz and he has 1st round caliber stuff. Brandon Jacobs is built like a rock and could end up as a LF with plus power. Renny Parthemore could be a steal if he can work out some of his mechanical flaws. He should have a plus CB and could have a mid 90’s FB. Alex Hassan is a 20th rounder that also has a lot of potential. Miles Head was another great late round signing and could be a great contributor if he hits the weight room and even more valuable if he can be a Catcher. I did not like the way the Red Sox started their draft, but I like the over-slot signings later in the draft. It could end up being a great draft or a draft filled with busts. A lot of tools here, not much for skills yet.

Orioles Draft Report

The O’s took Matt Hobgood out of Norco HS, in California with the 5th overall pick in the draft which I thought was a bit of a stretch. He’s done pretty well in Rookie ball but not blowing anyone away. Mychal Givens is a real nice signing. He could be a power arm, probably out of the pen, or a SS in the mold of Shawon Dunston. I like 7th rounder Aaron Wirsch. I thought Tyler Townsend in the 3rd was an overdraft. Ryan Berry was a good sign in the 9th as he’s a top 3 round talent. I like Jake Cowan in the 10th. Kipp Schutz and Brenden Webb are OF’s who have some upside. Cameron Coffey was a big name late round signing getting $990,000 to sign away from Duke. I don’t feel he was worth that kind of money, but it is hard to argue with the Orioles recent draft history and they continue to add to their stockpile of arms. They didn’t sign much for bats though. Michael Ohlman was a late signing that really caps off a good draft by the O’s.

Monday, August 17, 2009

More overslot signings

Jacob Turner signs a unique contract with a $4.7 mil bonus payable over 6 years with a guarantee of $5.5 million. He could push it to $7 million depending on how quick he makes it to the show. This deal is a record for a high schooler. Wow.

He is not the only Jake to sign as Jake Marisnick signed with Toronto for $1 million. He has five tool potential and is a great athlete. To me, he was a supplemental talent so the bonus was fair.

Boston signed Kendall Volz for $550k. If he gets back to the level he was at, he will be a stud starter and if not, he will still be a solid RP.

Matt Helm was a surprising sign. The D'backs signed a lot of really good HS hitters in this draft.
They will be fun to watch as most of them should move up the ladder at about the same pace.

The Brewers also signed Scooter Gennett for $260k. I expected him to go to college but it looks like the Brewers get a hard nosed middle infielder at a good price.

Andy Oliver signed for $1.495 and the Padres have announced the signing of Donovan Tate. I would guess about $6.25 mil.

Zach Dotson is a 13th rder and the signed him for $500k. He could be a good #3 pitcher.

A's sign Stassi

Max Stassi signed for $1.5 mil today. Great job by Beane and Co. to get him signed up. Best player picked of the 2nd day of the draft. Maybe the best Catcher in the draft. He is in my opinion.

Michael Ohlmann, the O's 11th rounder, also signed for $995,000. More than I would have expected, but the O's needed a bat. They went very pitching heavy in their draft. I would have expected him to be a second day pick if he was drafted on potential alone. I think he will end up in the OF.

Levon Washington and Kenny Diekroger are on to plan B according to TB Rays. They have stated they are not going to sign them. Or is it just posturing?

Kentrail Davis also signed with the Brewers. I heard early on he was going to sign. Then apparently things got ugly between them, whatever that means, now he is a Brewer. I like him as a Supp. pick. He could have the bat to be a top 10-15 pick if he hits up to his potential.

Kyle Gibson

Slot for the #22 pick is $1.287 Mil and the Twins have yet to go over slot. I would guess Gibson is looking for in the neighborhood of 2.25-2.5 mil.
If the Twins don’t get it done, they will have let a potential ace go for less than what they paid Carl Pavano for the last 2 months of a season in which they probably won’t make the playoffs. That is not how to build from a farm system, that is just plain POOR management.
They went over slot for Jeff Manship, who recently made his big league debut, in 2006, giving the 14th round pick a $500,000 bonus. Maybe the fact that going over slot has worked for them will make them realize it’s worth it for an elite talent.
They did get Matt Bashore and Billy Bullock with their other 1st round picks and have signed them. Ben Tootle in the 3rd and Brad Stillings in the 7th were both top 2 round talents.
Maybe the Twins feel that is enough to make this draft a success but walking away from Gibson is a huge mistake when the difference is less than what you are paying Pavano or Orland Cabrera for the rest of the season.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

After the signing deadline...

I will be posting an overview of each team and how they did.
I will also be posting a 2010 Draft preview in the upcoming weeks.

I think by tomorrow the Nats and Strasburg will reach a deal with a bonus of 20 mil.
Ackley will sign for 6.75 mil and Tate for 6.25. Just a few guesses.

My hope is that the A's sign Stassi. I think that could be the steal of the draft.

The Rays have signed a few later rounders lately, including Jeff Malm. They have done well.

Much more to come in the coming days/weeks.